Middle East · resolved market
Will Trump visit Pakistan by June 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc1f43db60906fb03f0db0283a1841bd77d9e0efb12e203b7949e620505821077
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $81,734
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $81,648
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $81,734 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ad8…4864backed Yes | 7c | 3,046$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16d5…1b25backed Yes | 8c | 1,484$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c2a…e698backed Yes | 8c | 1,471$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0da2…ebabbacked Yes | 8c | 1,454$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xafe5…a9cabacked Yes | 8c | 1,452$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x63b8…7af5backed Yes | 14c | 1,444$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5461…108fbacked Yes | 8c | 1,443$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3bc5…773ebacked Yes | 8c | 1,421$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98ff…6ebfbacked Yes | 9c | 1,410$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf70…a566backed Yes | 8c | 1,388$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f18…ed79backed Yes | 8c | 1,367$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44b8…a8f0backed Yes | 8c | 1,348$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f10…40c5backed Yes | 7c | 1,180$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.6 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa60…c398backed Yes | 7c | 1,127$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43ea…30d2backed Yes | 7c | 1,106$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfd8…14cfbacked Yes | 8c | 1,085$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6941…d1a2backed Yes | 7c | 1,072$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…8cabbacked Yes | 7c | 1,040$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc465…31b9backed Yes | 8c | 1,035$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x426a…2165backed Yes | 8c | 1,028$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe42d…fb80backed Yes | 8c | 1,028$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65a5…ba24backed Yes | 9c | 1,028$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x982e…ca70backed Yes | 8c | 1,028$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4812…2adebacked Yes | 9c | 1,026$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6106…f10abacked Yes | 8c | 1,026$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 2c | 973.73$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.19 | 423 | 11.6%49 W · 374 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1937…ef75backed Yes | 7c | 946.99$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea8e…0875backed Yes | 8c | 937$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbf…9f60backed Yes | 8c | 777$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.16 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6198…1221backed Yes | 7c | 776.5$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0446…cc69backed Yes | 2c | 760.85$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.91 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 18cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd236…ad85backed Yes | 9c | 755.99$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6587…ad05backed Yes | 9c | 755.99$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.04 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -27%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe605…ac5fbacked Yes | 27c | 742.47$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.56 | 234 | 20.9%49 W · 185 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 76c | 295.2$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.8 | 589 | 27.2%160 W · 429 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b8…db31backed No | 80c | 292.3$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.46 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 3c | 289.45$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.11 | 228 | 2.6%6 W · 222 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ae…217abacked Yes | 6c | 235.22$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.11 | 59 | 11.9%7 W · 52 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06e1…696ebacked No | 70c | 60$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 42 | 73.8%31 W · 11 L | +7.9wins | +0.19per pick | 55cpaid | +40%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump visit Pakistan by June 30?this page
- Will Trump visit Pakistan by April 30?No won
- Will Trump visit Pakistan by May 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.