MLB · resolved market
San Francisco Giants vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc20808556e85828eadf018dc2c32e294a65475977180a67243f8862e4276e0c2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,722
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,757
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,722 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Under | 52c | 7,162$3,699 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,698.72 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56ac…d77ebacked Over | 47c | 2,842$1,336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,506.26 | 716 | 50.7%363 W · 353 L | +9.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58b9…ee8bbacked Under | 53c | 2,554$1,354 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,353.62 | 752 | 48.8%367 W · 385 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Over | 46c | 2,048$932 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,116.16 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44f0…432cbacked Over | 44c | 1,421$625 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$795.62 | 410 | 51.7%212 W · 198 L | +14.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 61c | 1,415$859 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$556.23 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Over | 45c | 1,000$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$550 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae82…faf0backed Under | 56c | 749.99$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$419.99 | 246 | 51.6%127 W · 119 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 45c | 586.9$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$323.8 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Over | 44c | 365.11$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.39 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 45c | 288.51$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.68 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 55c | 184.31$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.96 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a8…6764backed Over | 44c | 182.82$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.38 | 264 | 38.3%101 W · 163 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked Under | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 652 | 48.3%315 W · 337 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over | 45c | 172$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.41 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea6e…7c46backed Under | 57c | 122.81$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 674 | 49.4%333 W · 341 L | -28.0wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed Over | 54c | 108$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.2 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd6b…e0f3backed Over | 44c | 106.5$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.64 | 172 | 53.5%92 W · 80 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed Under | 56c | 100$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 1,569 | 51.1%801 W · 768 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Over | 44c | 100$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 994 | 47.3%470 W · 524 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6628…05aebacked Under | 48c | 90$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 232 | 44%102 W · 130 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 39c | 87.77$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.35 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 46c | 84.26$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.08 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4060…e63cbacked Under | 64c | 78.59$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 236 | 51.3%121 W · 115 L | +5.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Over | 43c | 65$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.05 | 1,172 | 49.1%575 W · 597 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…b23ebacked Over | 63c | 60$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.2 | 1,279 | 51.2%655 W · 624 L | -19.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 39c | 55.68$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.01 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Over | 71c | 54.91$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.05 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0954…012abacked Under | 57c | 52.63$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1,197 | 53.9%645 W · 552 L | +42.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe134…f6dabacked Under | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.75 | 746 | 57.8%431 W · 315 L | -9.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36f4…0eb2backed Under | 54c | 48.57$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.23 | 859 | 49.1%422 W · 437 L | -3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Over | 46c | 48.4$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.31 | 1,804 | 53.8%970 W · 834 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e43…0306backed Over | 43c | 45.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.21 | 234 | 35%82 W · 152 L | -10.2wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9aca…61fdbacked Over | 43c | 45.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.07 | 274 | 54.4%149 W · 125 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x787b…86c3backed Over | 44c | 42$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.52 | 72 | 43.1%31 W · 41 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Over | 45c | 33.47$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.4 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff68…8379backed Over | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 269 | 40.5%109 W · 160 L | -8.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2725…e7d1backed Over | 46c | 29$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.74 | 358 | 49.4%177 W · 181 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28f7…404dbacked Over | 59c | 25.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.42 | 476 | 46.2%220 W · 256 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa25a…04b7backed Under | 57c | 20.88$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 145 | 46.2%67 W · 78 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 61c | 17.08$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.73 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- San Francisco Giants vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 9.5this page
- San Francisco Giants vs. Arizona DiamondbacksArizona Diamondbacks won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 8.5Over won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Francisco Giants vs. Arizona DiamondbacksYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.