MLB · resolved market
Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc2109a5cd4c7bb73c50f0d0e8d527f65fc40a5c2d641f2251f370e52bd757dad
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Toronto Blue Jaysof Texas Rangers, Toronto Blue Jays
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,589
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,591
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,589 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Toronto Blue Jays | 57c | 3,942$2,235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,707.25 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Texas Rangers | 64c | 2,631$1,676 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,675.89 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Toronto Blue Jays | 43c | 1,708$740 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$968.55 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Texas Rangers | 43c | 1,674$726 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$726.33 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Toronto Blue Jays | 55c | 1,222$670 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$552.3 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Toronto Blue Jays | 61c | 788.95$482 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$307.23 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Texas Rangers | 43c | 775.7$334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333.55 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed Texas Rangers | 45c | 653.09$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.89 | 1,379 | 50.6%698 W · 681 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed Toronto Blue Jays | 27c | 520$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$381.62 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Texas Rangers | 39c | 429.51$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.51 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed Texas Rangers | 43c | 395.35$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 639 | 43.3%277 W · 362 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Texas Rangers | 44c | 341.13$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.1 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b1…e904backed Texas Rangers | 39c | 330$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.7 | 693 | 51.9%360 W · 333 L | +26.3wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Texas Rangers | 24c | 236.48$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.83 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda48…5926backed Toronto Blue Jays | 46c | 225.1$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.5 | 123 | 39%48 W · 75 L | -9.7wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Texas Rangers | 67c | 223$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.41 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Toronto Blue Jays | 22c | 215.14$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.24 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Toronto Blue Jays | 17c | 168.49$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.85 | 2,144 | 39.6%849 W · 1,295 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Texas Rangers | 62c | 156$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.28 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xddfc…cd9ebacked Texas Rangers | 44c | 135.91$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.8 | 162 | 50.6%82 W · 80 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe29…69f9backed Texas Rangers | 67c | 135.14$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9991…36b8backed Texas Rangers | 43c | 135.05$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.52 | 260 | 63.8%166 W · 94 L | +7.9wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Texas Rangers | 43c | 129.71$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.78 | 1,733 | 49%849 W · 884 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Texas Rangers | 44c | 116.27$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.16 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Toronto Blue Jays | 62c | 106.5$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.47 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc23…a9f2backed Texas Rangers | 38c | 83$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.54 | 468 | 54.5%255 W · 213 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…ec68backed Texas Rangers | 38c | 83$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.54 | 721 | 54.2%391 W · 330 L | +20.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +144.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Texas Rangers | 38c | 70.49$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.79 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c97…5c66backed Toronto Blue Jays | 64c | 46.88$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.88 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | -5.8wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8b81…988cbacked Texas Rangers | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -4.8wins | -0.30per pick | 55cpaid | -53.8%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x1df6…cba0backed Toronto Blue Jays | 59c | 45.56$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.63 | 1,445 | 50.3%727 W · 718 L | -27.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc846…c413backed Toronto Blue Jays | 64c | 44$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.84 | 539 | 50.6%273 W · 266 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8345…5cadbacked Texas Rangers | 36c | 44$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 61 | 52.5%32 W · 29 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed Toronto Blue Jays | 38c | 41$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.28 | 447 | 45.6%204 W · 243 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff19…3ebebacked Texas Rangers | 44c | 37.91$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.68 | 404 | 47.8%193 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Toronto Blue Jays | 42c | 37.52$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.82 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Texas Rangers | 63c | 35.56$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 1,014 | 50.4%511 W · 503 L | +52.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Toronto Blue Jays | 61c | 35.41$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.81 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 38c | 34.37$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.43 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Texas Rangers | 36c | 34.31$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.35 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f4…6fa9backed Toronto Blue Jays | 44c | 31.28$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.52 | 1,777 | 58.4%1,037 W · 740 L | +91.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Texas Rangers | 37c | 30.85$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.41 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39b2…157cbacked Texas Rangers | 44c | 30.67$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.49 | 147 | 50.3%74 W · 73 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc622…8f86backed Toronto Blue Jays | 61c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.75 | 59 | 61%36 W · 23 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Texas Rangers | 74c | 22.41$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.65 | 2,147 | 50.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L | +27.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3404…10d2backed Toronto Blue Jays | 62c | 20.5$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.79 | 528 | 52.1%275 W · 253 L | +13.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f04…2392backed Texas Rangers | 56c | 19.88$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.08 | 105 | 57.1%60 W · 45 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27b1…6a0bbacked Texas Rangers | 55c | 19.44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.69 | 469 | 52.5%246 W · 223 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Toronto Blue Jays | 60c | 17.5$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf766…9251backed Toronto Blue Jays | 62c | 16.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.27 | 1,464 | 63.5%929 W · 535 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5)this page
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-2.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-3.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-4.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-5.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue JaysTexas Rangers won
- Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue Jays: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Over won
- Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 10.5Under won
- Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 11.5Under won
- Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 6.5Over won
- Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5Over won
- Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 9.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue JaysYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.