MLB · resolved market
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue Jays
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7b9c3a8ac1faa7d1e022f52547457924e91bfee068d73d309cb3091fab4a0ee7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,485
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,483
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,485 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x400d…28afbacked Yes | 53c | 3,680$1,934 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,745.89 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed No | 47c | 1,717$807 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$807.14 | 1,292 | 50.2%648 W · 644 L | +18.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc249…8a61backed No | 47c | 600$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282 | 613 | 52.5%322 W · 291 L | +29.6wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c8e…a316backed No | 48c | 500$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 226 | 38.5%87 W · 139 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked No | 48c | 382.04$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.38 | 1,521 | 48.6%739 W · 782 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed No | 48c | 275$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked No | 50c | 274.63$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.82 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d02…bfecbacked Yes | 50c | 189.12$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.81 | 340 | 44.4%151 W · 189 L | -14.2wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef54…c997backed Yes | 51c | 160$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.4 | 208 | 51.9%108 W · 100 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked No | 49c | 151.45$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.21 | 509 | 49.5%252 W · 257 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6932…6878backed No | 49c | 110$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.9 | 268 | 45.9%123 W · 145 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5777…f1a7backed No | 49c | 75$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.75 | 73 | 43.8%32 W · 41 L | -4.3wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 48c | 61$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.35 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18d8…400bbacked Yes | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.82 | 118 | 43.2%51 W · 67 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cbf…79c3backed Yes | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed No | 47c | 38$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1a5…cffdbacked No | 50c | 32.79$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3375…727bbacked Yes | 51c | 28.07$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.87 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a71…618cbacked Yes | 50c | 27.3$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.65 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd96c…1e56backed No | 51c | 26.3$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.41 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb6…7715backed No | 50c | 26.03$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.02 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2655…77d2backed Yes | 50c | 25.87$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.94 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +2.5wins | +0.11per pick | 61cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4629…35e2backed No | 50c | 25.65$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.83 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e5e…d255backed No | 50c | 25.56$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.78 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe9eb…1dfebacked No | 50c | 25.22$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.61 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01d4…47a7backed No | 51c | 24.75$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.62 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 67cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02a6…575abacked No | 50c | 24.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.34 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -2.3wins | -0.23per pick | 63cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9202…18b0backed Yes | 50c | 24.61$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.31 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.10per pick | 61cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x89fe…c0a0backed No | 50c | 24.58$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.29 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90bd…cc0abacked Yes | 51c | 24.56$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.03 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb91c…443bbacked Yes | 51c | 24.45$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.98 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c47…8cccbacked Yes | 50c | 24.27$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.14 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc8…8179backed No | 50c | 23.92$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb6c…0b33backed No | 50c | 23.78$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.89 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.16per pick | 61cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xed4d…86c3backed No | 50c | 23.7$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.85 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fac…f2f9backed No | 50c | 23.69$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.85 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c5b…59b8backed No | 50c | 23.62$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.81 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -2.8wins | -0.25per pick | 61cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf835…ec25backed No | 50c | 23.34$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.67 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -2.5wins | -0.25per pick | 65cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x60f1…c7f6backed No | 50c | 23.01$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.51 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 56cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbffc…3b70backed No | 50c | 22.9$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.45 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x407b…bba5backed No | 50c | 22.79$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 63cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38f5…23fabacked Yes | 50c | 22.48$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.24 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 63cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x708a…f320backed Yes | 51c | 22.45$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f91…d069backed Yes | 51c | 22.45$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89c4…6a4abacked No | 50c | 22.42$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.21 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa42d…4d66backed No | 50c | 21.82$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.91 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8772…349ebacked Yes | 50c | 21.63$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.82 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 60cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1cc…28bdbacked No | 50c | 21.3$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b09…e0cabacked Yes | 51c | 21.19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.38 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.19per pick | 62cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…d59bbacked No | 50c | 20.17$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb703…0366backed Yes | 51c | 19.98$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.79 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue Jaysthis page
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-2.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-3.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-4.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-5.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue JaysTexas Rangers won
- Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue Jays: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Over won
- Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 10.5Under won
- Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 11.5Under won
- Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 6.5Over won
- Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5Over won
- Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 9.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.