MLB · resolved market
Spread: Kansas City Royals (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc26c4edcabdded1ce3c32aeb8a9b7c98d52679c27eaa72535eed9d702f87759e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Kansas City Royalsof Kansas City Royals, Detroit Tigers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,292
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,420
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,292 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Detroit Tigers | 77c | 1,110$855 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$855.24 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2064…240dbacked Kansas City Royals | 55c | 587.8$325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.41 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Kansas City Royals | 57c | 399$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Detroit Tigers | 76c | 194.44$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.81 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Detroit Tigers | 69c | 150$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.5 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e50…c665backed Kansas City Royals | 23c | 131.04$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.04 | 564 | 35.1%198 W · 366 L | -21.3wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f2…8c8dbacked Kansas City Royals | 31c | 125$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.7 | 587 | 46%270 W · 317 L | -12.4wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked Detroit Tigers | 58c | 124.64$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.52 | 1,056 | 44.3%468 W · 588 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Kansas City Royals | 19c | 108$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.17 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Kansas City Royals | 22c | 63.5$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.53 | 483 | 39.8%192 W · 291 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Kansas City Royals | 21c | 55.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.04 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7629…226cbacked Kansas City Royals | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 56 | 37.5%21 W · 35 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Kansas City Royals | 58c | 43.29$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.18 | 1,912 | 53%1,014 W · 898 L | +42.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Detroit Tigers | 72c | 36.24$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.26 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Kansas City Royals | 35c | 35.07$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.87 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4cd…c041backed Detroit Tigers | 75c | 20.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.25 | 250 | 53.2%133 W · 117 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Detroit Tigers | 77c | 15.11$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.64 | 2,144 | 39.6%849 W · 1,295 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-2.5)this page
- Detroit Tigers vs. Kansas City RoyalsKansas City Royals won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Kansas City Royals: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Under won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 5.5Over won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 6.5Over won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 7.5Under won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 8.5Under won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Detroit Tigers vs. Kansas City RoyalsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.