MLB · resolved market
Detroit Tigers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa26ddfe4dcd1732abbf19230f2f88b2183486b2ade43ab6e330ce0b56bace156
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $210,295
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $210,893
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $210,295 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5e94…5ba1backed Over | 57c | 177,913$101,085 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101,084.62 | 469 | 49%230 W · 239 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked Under | 44c | 117,977$51,441 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66,536.93 | 1,385 | 49.5%685 W · 700 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c33…0563backed Under | 44c | 40,000$17,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22,600 | 856 | 45.3%388 W · 468 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 46c | 11,402$5,203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,199.37 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over | 33c | 4,226$1,383 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,382.56 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 43c | 4,138$1,774 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,773.52 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4658…4131backed Under | 43c | 2,326$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,325.58 | 491 | 58.9%289 W · 202 L | +30.8wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 42c | 1,840$779 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$778.88 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Under | 44c | 1,745$768 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$977.45 | 1,572 | 48.3%759 W · 813 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Under | 43c | 1,569$679 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$890.69 | 1,555 | 48.9%761 W · 794 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Under | 43c | 1,459$630 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$829.45 | 1,291 | 51%658 W · 633 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 65c | 1,334$867 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$466.86 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 65c | 1,066$690 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$376.39 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Under | 53c | 1,058$560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$497.58 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Under | 56c | 892.86$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$392.86 | 873 | 52.7%460 W · 413 L | +9.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 72c | 871.55$631 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.32 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 53c | 727.45$382 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$345.14 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cd2…7f85backed Under | 79c | 632.91$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.91 | 32 | 81.3%26 W · 6 L | +5.7wins | +0.18per pick | 64cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 56c | 616.95$344 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.67 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Under | 77c | 572.68$442 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.6 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1262…056fbacked Under | 44c | 440$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.5 | 274 | 48.2%132 W · 142 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Under | 65c | 436.13$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.38 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 57c | 403.45$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.02 | 1,912 | 53%1,014 W · 898 L | +42.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 44c | 400$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 43c | 314.5$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.71 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7eeb…b6bdbacked Over | 4c | 287.4$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.83 | 40 | 22.5%9 W · 31 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Over | 41c | 250$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.5 | 1,796 | 43.8%786 W · 1,010 L | -33.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa65c…509dbacked Under | 43c | 232.56$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.56 | 243 | 50.2%122 W · 121 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Over | 30c | 200$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1,173 | 29%340 W · 833 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked Under | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.82 | 473 | 45.7%216 W · 257 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked Over | 53c | 140.35$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.61 | 583 | 52.1%304 W · 279 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf8c…e040backed Over | 42c | 137.44$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.4 | 175 | 48%84 W · 91 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -16%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…63ebbacked Under | 65c | 133$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.55 | 1,205 | 58.8%708 W · 497 L | +31.1wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05c5…6a69backed Under | 65c | 128.51$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.98 | 473 | 58.4%276 W · 197 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Over | 40c | 114.08$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.63 | 546 | 51.3%280 W · 266 L | +29.8wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under | 67c | 106.94$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.29 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 57c | 102$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.14 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x796f…00f6backed Under | 43c | 100$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57 | 272 | 44.9%122 W · 150 L | -8.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Over | 44c | 99.07$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.21 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d93…fdefbacked Over | 36c | 99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.64 | 168 | 46.4%78 W · 90 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Under | 53c | 88.64$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.66 | 780 | 52.2%407 W · 373 L | +22.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47c9…2038backed Under | 53c | 84.57$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.75 | 474 | 46.6%221 W · 253 L | +26.0wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Under | 77c | 76$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.7 | 2,147 | 50.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L | +27.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79e0…7d6fbacked Over | 25c | 74.7$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.63 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b46…ed67backed Under | 69c | 71.33$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.11 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x92f5…52a2backed Over | 21c | 66.8$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.78 | 176 | 47.2%83 W · 93 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c8e…b38fbacked Under | 65c | 66.48$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.27 | 406 | 58.4%237 W · 169 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29de…d9e6backed Under | 65c | 66.48$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.27 | 552 | 59.6%329 W · 223 L | +11.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66e7…8bcdbacked Under | 43c | 63$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.91 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Under | 44c | 57.92$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.44 | 788 | 54.6%430 W · 358 L | +27.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Under | 69c | 54.81$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.13 | 799 | 55.9%447 W · 352 L | +21.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5016…ada1backed Over | 56c | 54$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.24 | 356 | 50.6%180 W · 176 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c52…99e1backed Under | 78c | 51.28$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.28 | 49 | 75.5%37 W · 12 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 71cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2892…e9d7backed Over | 57c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 348 | 46.8%163 W · 185 L | -12.9wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked Under | 74c | 49.33$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.97 | 1,056 | 44.3%468 W · 588 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb77…1c78backed Over | 28c | 48.25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.51 | 276 | 46.7%129 W · 147 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe481…d138backed Over | 56c | 46.32$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 882 | 47.7%421 W · 461 L | +3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69d2…a218backed Over | 56c | 43.85$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.56 | 82 | 50%41 W · 41 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Under | 43c | 43.78$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.74 | 979 | 44.4%435 W · 544 L | -22.8wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -18%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Under | 44c | 43.34$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.27 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Over | 49c | 42.6$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.95 | 733 | 55.3%405 W · 328 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3654…1b78backed Over | 48c | 36$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.18 | 268 | 57.1%153 W · 115 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88b8…4a59backed Under | 65c | 33.85$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.85 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Under | 59c | 33.38$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.75 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56cc…d589backed Under | 46c | 31.29$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.92 | 1,245 | 56.9%708 W · 537 L | +31.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Under | 64c | 30.02$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.86 | 2,144 | 39.6%849 W · 1,295 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07b4…6855backed Under | 74c | 26.66$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.94 | 141 | 49.6%70 W · 71 L | -7.5wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x17d7…9e1ebacked Under | 70c | 24.69$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.29 | 1,000 | 58.8%588 W · 412 L | +26.0wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfeef…4b1fbacked Over | 53c | 24.08$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.76 | 150 | 52.7%79 W · 71 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed Over | 49c | 23.61$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.61 | 470 | 56.6%266 W · 204 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Detroit Tigers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 7.5this page
- Detroit Tigers vs. Kansas City RoyalsKansas City Royals won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Kansas City Royals: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Under won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 5.5Over won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 6.5Over won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 8.5Under won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-2.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Detroit Tigers vs. Kansas City RoyalsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.