MLB · resolved market
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Detroit Tigers vs. Kansas City Royals
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa11fb01e0e4206d21a8a94b2710b7c303b349d51c18b17943c676582456468e8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,895
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,499
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,895 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb727…2a9dbacked Yes | 47c | 21,500$10,105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,104.98 | 69 | 46.4%32 W · 37 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked No | 54c | 12,997$6,964 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,033.2 | 1,438 | 51%734 W · 704 L | -18.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked No | 53c | 8,544$4,530 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,013.39 | 2,314 | 52.5%1,216 W · 1,098 L | +26.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd7…89aabacked Yes | 45c | 5,000$2,250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,250 | 69 | 46.4%32 W · 37 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed No | 53c | 4,000$2,120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,880 | 1,889 | 52.9%1,000 W · 889 L | +15.5wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Yes | 47c | 1,400$655 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$654.91 | 3,541 | 51%1,805 W · 1,736 L | +53.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36e6…ad16backed No | 53c | 1,132$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$532.08 | 77 | 63.6%49 W · 28 L | +5.3wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1691…1e24backed No | 56c | 797.52$449 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$348.14 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 40cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4214…4245backed No | 55c | 699.73$385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$314.88 | 92 | 55.4%51 W · 41 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Yes | 47c | 622.31$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.49 | 4,524 | 48.9%2,214 W · 2,310 L | -42.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Yes | 42c | 528.87$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.65 | 8,451 | 47.9%4,048 W · 4,403 L | +81.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ebb…2b75backed No | 54c | 454.54$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.09 | 98 | 48%47 W · 51 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c33…0563backed Yes | 43c | 439.8$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.11 | 901 | 46.3%417 W · 484 L | +25.6wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3fa2…cf15backed No | 55c | 340$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.13per pick | 40cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1025…7e11backed No | 53c | 300$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54d0…8e20backed No | 55c | 272.73$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.73 | 330 | 56.4%186 W · 144 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46f8…68ccbacked Yes | 45c | 258.17$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.06 | 460 | 45.7%210 W · 250 L | -11.3wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Yes | 46c | 243.88$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.18 | 5,517 | 50.6%2,791 W · 2,726 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b1d…a01abacked No | 53c | 216.98$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.98 | 62 | 53.2%33 W · 29 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…245ebacked No | 59c | 166.2$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.64 | 44 | 61.4%27 W · 17 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f15…bdb3backed Yes | 46c | 147.7$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.94 | 801 | 47.7%382 W · 419 L | +3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Yes | 41c | 116.2$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.64 | 759 | 44.4%337 W · 422 L | -7.9wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x027a…5da8backed Yes | 38c | 80$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.10per pick | 37cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked Yes | 46c | 72.98$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.32 | 716 | 52.4%375 W · 341 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Yes | 20c | 62$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 5,848 | 43.7%2,556 W · 3,292 L | -189.0wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Yes | 44c | 60$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 858 | 54.4%467 W · 391 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed No | 78c | 49.52$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.82 | 9,862 | 46.4%4,579 W · 5,283 L | +40.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Yes | 46c | 47$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.61 | 1,053 | 47.3%498 W · 555 L | -14.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f87…e128backed No | 55c | 45.45$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.45 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b39…8b50backed No | 53c | 43.4$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73b8…aa92backed No | 53c | 41.51$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.51 | 389 | 51.2%199 W · 190 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06c…561dbacked No | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed No | 68c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 1,960 | 41.4%812 W · 1,148 L | -25.9wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a98…639dbacked No | 53c | 26.42$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.42 | 309 | 60.2%186 W · 123 L | +16.8wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd355…e402backed No | 55c | 20.64$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.29 | 74 | 55.4%41 W · 33 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Detroit Tigers vs. Kansas City Royalsthis page
- Detroit Tigers vs. Kansas City RoyalsKansas City Royals won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Kansas City Royals: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Under won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 5.5Over won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 6.5Over won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 7.5Under won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 8.5Under won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-2.5)Kansas City Royals won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.