MLB · resolved market
Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3a309660ab93b4e9f8936391172651edc3cbda013560faa020e9c394160bd8a8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Kansas City Royalsof Kansas City Royals, Detroit Tigers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,274
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,784
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,274 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Detroit Tigers | 55c | 3,985$2,178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,178.34 | 11,356 | 52.9%6,002 W · 5,354 L | +209.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3234…8b1abacked Detroit Tigers | 66c | 3,268$2,157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,156.88 | 76 | 44.7%34 W · 42 L | -8.1wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Kansas City Royals | 43c | 3,009$1,285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,723.81 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Detroit Tigers | 45c | 1,219$549 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$548.92 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Detroit Tigers | 45c | 1,121$503 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$503.24 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Kansas City Royals | 63c | 1,004$634 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$369.8 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Kansas City Royals | 35c | 917.9$321 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$596.68 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88c5…4815backed Detroit Tigers | 59c | 535.67$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314.11 | 319 | 57.4%183 W · 136 L | +23.1wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Kansas City Royals | 43c | 500$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287.5 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Detroit Tigers | 34c | 446.94$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.96 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Detroit Tigers | 53c | 408$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.32 | 1,796 | 43.8%786 W · 1,010 L | -33.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Kansas City Royals | 43c | 369.4$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.56 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe419…8aedbacked Kansas City Royals | 32c | 312.5$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.12 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Kansas City Royals | 72c | 182.72$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.32 | 1,911 | 53.1%1,014 W · 897 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Kansas City Royals | 41c | 144.73$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.1 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Detroit Tigers | 66c | 128.85$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.23 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f2…8c8dbacked Detroit Tigers | 55c | 124.98$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.29 | 587 | 46%270 W · 317 L | -12.4wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked Kansas City Royals | 47c | 123.4$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.8 | 1,056 | 44.3%468 W · 588 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Kansas City Royals | 75c | 120.39$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.49 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x796f…00f6backed Kansas City Royals | 55c | 99$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.55 | 272 | 44.9%122 W · 150 L | -8.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Detroit Tigers | 29c | 98$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.36 | 2,147 | 50.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L | +27.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92f5…52a2backed Detroit Tigers | 56c | 84.32$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.08 | 176 | 47.2%83 W · 93 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3654…1b78backed Kansas City Royals | 43c | 84$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.54 | 268 | 57.1%153 W · 115 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Kansas City Royals | 44c | 81.3$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.53 | 733 | 55.3%405 W · 328 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed Kansas City Royals | 44c | 81$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.51 | 470 | 56.6%266 W · 204 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Kansas City Royals | 71c | 75$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.75 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked Detroit Tigers | 69c | 72.34$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.91 | 583 | 52.1%304 W · 279 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fd4…de15backed Detroit Tigers | 48c | 64.7$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.77 | 171 | 60.8%104 W · 67 L | +11.2wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x50e6…b490backed Detroit Tigers | 22c | 59.64$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.12 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.13per pick | 54cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Kansas City Royals | 46c | 54$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.16 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3e…5a7abacked Kansas City Royals | 43c | 48.14$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.44 | 556 | 58.1%323 W · 233 L | +25.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeeaa…15cebacked Kansas City Royals | 43c | 45.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.99 | 213 | 43.2%92 W · 121 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed3…274cbacked Kansas City Royals | 44c | 45.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.48 | 586 | 49.5%290 W · 296 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf766…9251backed Detroit Tigers | 68c | 44.25$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.09 | 1,464 | 63.5%929 W · 535 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe722…57c5backed Detroit Tigers | 68c | 44.11$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 945 | 49%463 W · 482 L | -38.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x87f7…8f45backed Kansas City Royals | 42c | 43.1$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 464 | 44.4%206 W · 258 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Kansas City Royals | 31c | 42.59$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.39 | 4,477 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,291 L | -47.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d5f…1171backed Kansas City Royals | 42c | 35.36$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.51 | 580 | 54.5%316 W · 264 L | +17.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60d0…2e36backed Detroit Tigers | 64c | 23.2$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 205 | 52.7%108 W · 97 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5)this page
- Detroit Tigers vs. Kansas City RoyalsKansas City Royals won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Kansas City Royals: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Under won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 5.5Over won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 6.5Over won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 7.5Under won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 8.5Under won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-2.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Detroit Tigers vs. Kansas City RoyalsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.