MLB · resolved market
Detroit Tigers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb24dcabea3b0a6ea5c46f93c9560ec05db80f2abd151eb941f32642de83995d4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $129,152
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $129,134
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $129,152 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked Under | 54c | 55,555$30,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25,555.27 | 1,385 | 49.5%685 W · 700 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e94…5ba1backed Over | 47c | 43,635$20,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20,499.99 | 469 | 49%230 W · 239 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d1a…0df6backed Under | 53c | 21,300$11,289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,011.16 | 154 | 51.9%80 W · 74 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56ac…d77ebacked Over | 46c | 17,171$7,898 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,898.43 | 716 | 50.7%363 W · 353 L | +9.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb727…2a9dbacked Over | 46c | 13,498$6,209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,209.29 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Under | 53c | 12,730$6,747 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,983.04 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 47c | 12,565$5,894 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,894 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 42c | 2,871$1,194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,194.06 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Under | 51c | 2,299$1,179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,120.33 | 1,291 | 51%658 W · 633 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 53c | 2,235$1,195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,039.92 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Under | 54c | 2,084$1,115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$968.54 | 1,555 | 48.9%761 W · 794 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Over | 49c | 2,082$1,020 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,020.29 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Over | 46c | 1,500$690 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$690 | 452 | 52.4%237 W · 215 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fb…ee11backed Over | 46c | 1,309$602 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$602.2 | 655 | 49.3%323 W · 332 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 73c | 1,218$889 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$328.86 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…8abdbacked Under | 54c | 1,085$586 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$499.1 | 680 | 53.2%362 W · 318 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Over | 46c | 1,071$492 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$492.46 | 1,572 | 48.3%759 W · 813 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Over | 47c | 1,033$486 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$485.71 | 252 | 48.8%123 W · 129 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2396…9485backed Over | 46c | 858.52$395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$394.92 | 287 | 51.9%149 W · 138 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 46c | 800$368 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$368 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over | 24c | 767.31$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.5 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 69c | 757.02$522 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.27 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd3e7…bf64backed Over | 46c | 650$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299 | 707 | 44.7%316 W · 391 L | -22.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 61c | 649.02$397 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.33 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Under | 80c | 610.36$486 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.3 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Over | 28c | 598$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.34 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Over | 46c | 500$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3f…4333backed Over | 46c | 444.22$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.34 | 562 | 53.2%299 W · 263 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Over | 47c | 339.15$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.4 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 46c | 297$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.62 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16bb…8492backed Under | 53c | 256.74$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.67 | 865 | 48.7%421 W · 444 L | -8.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca6…4b74backed Under | 55c | 249.99$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.5 | 449 | 49.2%221 W · 228 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Over | 28c | 240$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.2 | 1,796 | 43.8%786 W · 1,010 L | -33.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf8c…e040backed Over | 19c | 229.24$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.32 | 175 | 48%84 W · 91 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -16%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17d9…84afbacked Under | 54c | 203$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.38 | 94 | 46.8%44 W · 50 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c5b…ec01backed Over | 46c | 200.87$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.4 | 220 | 50.5%111 W · 109 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 53c | 200$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Under | 54c | 200$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.37 | 2,147 | 50.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L | +27.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e8d…3a3dbacked Under | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.19 | 89 | 50.6%45 W · 44 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Over | 46c | 148$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.08 | 483 | 39.8%192 W · 291 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3453…8524backed Over | 46c | 137.37$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.19 | 385 | 51.4%198 W · 187 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f8…68ccbacked Over | 46c | 134$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.64 | 450 | 45.8%206 W · 244 L | -10.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24ce…da46backed Over | 47c | 124.52$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.52 | 478 | 52.3%250 W · 228 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…63ebbacked Under | 73c | 121.79$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.88 | 1,205 | 58.8%708 W · 497 L | +31.1wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05c5…6a69backed Under | 73c | 120.8$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.62 | 473 | 58.4%276 W · 197 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b1d…a01abacked Under | 54c | 120.37$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.37 | 61 | 52.5%32 W · 29 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2bb8…7017backed Over | 46c | 108.7$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 133 | 44.4%59 W · 74 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf15…a1febacked Over | 46c | 108.7$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 151 | 47.7%72 W · 79 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b94…09dcbacked Over | 46c | 108.7$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 114 | 41.2%47 W · 67 L | -8.3wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -14%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x79e0…7d6fbacked Over | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Under | 79c | 95$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.95 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under | 79c | 95$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.95 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked Under | 54c | 81.46$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.3 | 583 | 52.1%304 W · 279 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Under | 54c | 67.22$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.92 | 788 | 54.6%430 W · 358 L | +27.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 46c | 66.93$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.79 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c8e…b38fbacked Under | 73c | 60.9$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.44 | 406 | 58.4%237 W · 169 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29de…d9e6backed Under | 73c | 60.9$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.44 | 552 | 59.6%329 W · 223 L | +11.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3003…30f5backed Over | 46c | 54.35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 62 | 61.3%38 W · 24 L | +8.1wins | +0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x33c4…85c2backed Over | 46c | 51.53$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.7 | 58 | 58.6%34 W · 24 L | +4.6wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2892…e9d7backed Under | 54c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 348 | 46.8%163 W · 185 L | -12.9wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked Over | 32c | 49.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 1,056 | 44.3%468 W · 588 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde36…f41cbacked Over | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 158 | 41.8%66 W · 92 L | -12.7wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 47c | 41.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.73 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe90f…a908backed Over | 46c | 38.83$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.86 | 97 | 55.7%54 W · 43 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fd4…de15backed Under | 71c | 37.84$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.83 | 171 | 60.8%104 W · 67 L | +11.2wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Under | 51c | 37$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.13 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb59…6552backed Under | 54c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.73 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Over | 47c | 34.47$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 1,195 | 50%597 W · 598 L | +5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Under | 69c | 33.78$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.38 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1262…056fbacked Over | 47c | 33$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.51 | 274 | 48.2%132 W · 142 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Under | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.05 | 2,144 | 39.6%849 W · 1,295 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17d7…9e1ebacked Under | 74c | 24.24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 1,000 | 58.8%588 W · 412 L | +26.0wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09da…50bcbacked Over | 46c | 22.78$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.48 | 305 | 54.4%166 W · 139 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e1b…aa71backed Under | 55c | 22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 100 | 48%48 W · 52 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd774…82cdbacked Over | 47c | 21.85$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.27 | 99 | 45.5%45 W · 54 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7fa…e0c9backed Under | 54c | 21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.66 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed3…274cbacked Under | 55c | 18.22$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 586 | 49.5%290 W · 296 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4cd…c041backed Under | 76c | 14.44$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.54 | 250 | 53.2%133 W · 117 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Detroit Tigers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 8.5this page
- Detroit Tigers vs. Kansas City RoyalsKansas City Royals won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Kansas City Royals: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Under won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 5.5Over won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 6.5Over won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 7.5Under won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-2.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Detroit Tigers vs. Kansas City RoyalsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.