Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs. Team Liquid
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc298c2f4ee676e89222ea6ec15b2947a19daef600399f3457b63686445146b31
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Team Falconsof Team Falcons, Team Liquid
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,506
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,001
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,506 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6304…e570backed Team Falcons | 59c | 4,344$2,561 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,782.6 | 276 | 45.3%125 W · 151 L | -8.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Team Liquid | 35c | 3,640$1,267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,267.38 | 88 | 45.5%40 W · 48 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03ea…6254backed Team Falcons | 62c | 3,259$2,021 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,238.42 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d28…932abacked Team Liquid | 38c | 2,106$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800.2 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd17d…d0eebacked Team Liquid | 41c | 1,955$799 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$799.04 | 192 | 46.4%89 W · 103 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5159…d7aebacked Team Liquid | 36c | 1,500$540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$540 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53ab…65aabacked Team Liquid | 37c | 900$337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$337 | 81 | 46.9%38 W · 43 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x016e…c700backed Team Liquid | 40c | 832.42$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84eb…869dbacked Team Liquid | 38c | 800$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1464…5e75backed Team Falcons | 60c | 700$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280 | 123 | 51.2%63 W · 60 L | -7.0wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f2d…2b35backed Team Falcons | 60c | 655.21$392 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263.58 | 536 | 52.6%282 W · 254 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48e3…c148backed Team Liquid | 38c | 600$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb852…bfaebacked Team Liquid | 39c | 600$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Team Liquid | 40c | 499.99$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 894 | 40.3%360 W · 534 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x209e…8bb4backed Team Falcons | 60c | 494$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.1 | 805 | 44.6%359 W · 446 L | -25.8wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdd8…4bf1backed Team Liquid | 41c | 487.8$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.22per pick | 52cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3df6…b15fbacked Team Liquid | 39c | 435$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.6 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8889…a9d1backed Team Falcons | 62c | 323.42$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.41 | 197 | 43.1%85 W · 112 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df6…ac3bbacked Team Liquid | 38c | 274.26$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.22 | 76 | 46.1%35 W · 41 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2729…e171backed Team Liquid | 36c | 200$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd727…eccebacked Team Falcons | 68c | 199.91$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.82 | 87 | 50.6%44 W · 43 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Team Falcons | 60c | 144.78$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.91 | 81 | 60.5%49 W · 32 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfcca…c460backed Team Liquid | 39c | 119.67$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.67 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x97e1…017bbacked Team Falcons | 58c | 112.34$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.24 | 341 | 46.6%159 W · 182 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81f5…70afbacked Team Liquid | 38c | 108.39$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.19 | 109 | 41.3%45 W · 64 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x285b…5231backed Team Liquid | 36c | 107.81$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.43 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe972…4cfbbacked Team Liquid | 40c | 92.5$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3d17…b1fdbacked Team Falcons | 59c | 84.75$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.75 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde4b…64cfbacked Team Falcons | 61c | 81.97$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.97 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -2.4wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcfdb…7a75backed Team Falcons | 62c | 80.65$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.65 | 34 | 64.7%22 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Team Liquid | 38c | 78.95$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 779 | 41.1%320 W · 459 L | -7.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb569…6fe0backed Team Falcons | 77c | 65$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.95 | 275 | 48%132 W · 143 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Team Liquid | 23c | 60$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 592 | 50.5%299 W · 293 L | -20.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Team Liquid | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 176 | 47.2%83 W · 93 L | -7.7wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x86e0…c394backed Team Liquid | 39c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 807 | 42.6%344 W · 463 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9380…b6eabacked Team Liquid | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…fe26backed Team Falcons | 65c | 46.15$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.15 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -2.9wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Team Liquid | 32c | 37$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 616 | 9.7%60 W · 556 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68c3…ba20backed Team Liquid | 41c | 36.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | +4.2wins | +0.11per pick | 37cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1781…a0ecbacked Team Liquid | 41c | 29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.89 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf815…4f3ebacked Team Falcons | 63c | 20.19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.47 | 273 | 66.3%181 W · 92 L | +12.4wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.