TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on May 5?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$20,999
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$20,617

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,999 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 103 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x26fc…4c27backed Yes1c2,768$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.911310.8%1 W · 130 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick2cpaid-97.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7735…4740backed Yes41c2,121$863 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$862.725933.6%87 W · 172 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x652d…46b3backed Yes4c917.77$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.7461820.7%128 W · 490 L+36.9wins+0.06per pick15cpaid-7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x3204…b1dbbacked Yes38c786.85$297 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2976227.4%17 W · 45 L-3.0wins-0.05per pick32cpaid-8.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes33c305.12$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.2317,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed No67c284.41$191 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.43,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdedd…17e1backed No65c275.97$181 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.272,43260.4%1,470 W · 962 L+30.2wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No62c266$165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.635,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No65c250.12$162 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.874,10456.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L+50.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No72c242.68$175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.4112,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0f60…026abacked No62c240.12$149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.4999963.5%634 W · 365 L-3.0wins0.00per pick64cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x07fd…54c7backed No69c221.7$153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.191546.7%7 W · 8 L-1.8wins-0.12per pick59cpaid-28%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf026…05a5backed Yes38c199.99$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$768426.2%22 W · 62 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-40.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes26c191.32$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.069,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa708…9321backed No70c185.5$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.831,29957.5%747 W · 552 L+11.8wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-9.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xba96…95a7backed Yes38c184.77$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7024029.2%70 W · 170 L-15.8wins-0.07per pick36cpaid-20.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3602…98dfbacked Yes27c154.84$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.415437%20 W · 34 L+5.3wins+0.10per pick27cpaid+34%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x108a…8159backed Yes33c145.35$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.0358732.9%193 W · 394 L+34.4wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+15.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5968…3fc4backed No76c135.41$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.8342160.6%255 W · 166 L-25.0wins-0.06per pick67cpaid-11.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xae2e…40adbacked Yes41c133.88$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.2629520.7%61 W · 234 L+7.8wins+0.03per pick18cpaid+25.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb684…343cbacked No58c132.05$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.7816968%115 W · 54 L+7.9wins+0.05per pick63cpaid+7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3d1d…9e61backed No64c130.8$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.682,87064.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L-32.8wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa7af…0158backed Yes31c128.11$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401435.7%5 W · 9 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-18.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes19c120.6$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.397,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0xb732…6900backed No59c120.23$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.3841258.3%240 W · 172 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2936…6c5fbacked No68c116.68$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.5834250.6%173 W · 169 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-11.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca0d…fd7ebacked Yes56c112.7$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.74728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.15per pick44cpaid-51.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x718c…11e0backed No70c109.32$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.325164.7%33 W · 18 L-2.9wins-0.06per pick70cpaid-3.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3cd4…ea0ebacked No62c101.58$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.843859.6%261 W · 177 L+4.6wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x906f…371abacked No71c100.27$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.172,49569.9%1,744 W · 751 L+80.3wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbc84…a0d2backed Yes34c100.21$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.1810634.9%37 W · 69 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+59.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c1c…0b5fbacked Yes36c99.99$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$363815.8%6 W · 32 L-3.6wins-0.09per pick25cpaid-30.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x35c4…d144backed No54c99.99$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.691,25562.5%785 W · 470 L+99.5wins+0.08per pick55cpaid+16.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xc120…a7e3backed No70c99.99$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.971,29954.1%703 W · 596 L+24.7wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1440…7712backed Yes23c99.97$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.999035.6%32 W · 58 L-0.4wins0.00per pick36cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd50c…3360backed Yes31c99.93$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.1828142%118 W · 163 L+8.7wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+10.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes31c91.32$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.5212,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked Yes34c89.98$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.633,47433.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L-175.6wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-28.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0ba3…57bcbacked No72c89.83$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.239159.8%234 W · 157 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x10b7…3604backed Yes34c89.06$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30825%2 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.15per pick40cpaid-62.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4560…8ce8backed No61c86.97$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.635058.3%204 W · 146 L+4.8wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a59…8e5cbacked Yes33c86.02$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.0530333%100 W · 203 L+16.1wins+0.05per pick28cpaid+24.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8971…809dbacked Yes23c85.77$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.731,95946%901 W · 1,058 L-51.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe49f…b083backed Yes37c85.57$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.3118837.2%70 W · 118 L+5.0wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc0b0…298fbacked Yes30c85$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.914626%38 W · 108 L+4.4wins+0.03per pick23cpaid+21.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6ad7…347abacked Yes33c84.07$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.0372952.4%382 W · 347 L+34.9wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+9.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9a26…c335backed Yes28c84.02$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.8286226.8%231 W · 631 L+28.6wins+0.03per pick23cpaid+30.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x94b1…27cbbacked No71c78.77$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.7797570.6%688 W · 287 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick70cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xedbd…dd60backed No61c76.83$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.193,30165%2,147 W · 1,154 L-38.5wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x85c8…80f8backed No69c73.83$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.9239158.1%227 W · 164 L-1.3wins0.00per pick58cpaid-4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc24f…81d3backed No79c70.8$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.6598571%699 W · 286 L+5.7wins+0.01per pick70cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x80bd…a8cdbacked Yes53c62.71$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.9716840.5%68 W · 100 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick38cpaid+2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7e03…f879backed Yes31c62.64$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.55616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick19cpaid+21.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x53bc…be7cbacked No72c62.5$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.5162770.5%442 W · 185 L-0.2wins0.00per pick71cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes31c61.8$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.9970133.5%235 W · 466 L+13.4wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+7.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd3fe…6800backed Yes37c54.27$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20425%1 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.12per pick37cpaid-47.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x29f8…4d7bbacked Yes34c50$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.8618368.9%126 W · 57 L+25.2wins+0.14per pick55cpaid+31.3%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0xcf7c…b00dbacked No63c50$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.578663.6%500 W · 286 L-0.3wins0.00per pick64cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x11f4…8003backed Yes38c49.55$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.95520%1 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.28per pick48cpaid-50.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xcfb5…c34fbacked No64c47.25$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.0112962.8%81 W · 48 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick65cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0273…6ca1backed Yes32c46.85$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.995056%28 W · 22 L-4.6wins-0.09per pick65cpaid-13%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xcaaa…da37backed No64c46.43$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.7644659%263 W · 183 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0619…0379backed No66c45.18$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.3654857.5%315 W · 233 L+13.1wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8454…3587backed No80c44.95$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.1527376.6%209 W · 64 L+0.5wins0.00per pick76cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe9b1…79d7backed No53c44.89$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.0888973.2%651 W · 238 L+20.3wins+0.02per pick71cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2654…b45fbacked No55c44.04$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.841,08959.4%647 W · 442 L+2.3wins0.00per pick59cpaid-4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe34d…41f0backed Yes42c42.19$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.912147.9%58 W · 63 L-0.4wins0.00per pick48cpaid-8.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xae68…064abacked No69c42$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.022,55563.8%1,631 W · 924 L+38.4wins+0.02per pick62cpaid+8.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9770…d57dbacked No70c40.7$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.0548672%350 W · 136 L+9.4wins+0.02per pick70cpaid+1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6854…67d0backed No73c40.5$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.0761752.8%326 W · 291 L-1.5wins0.00per pick53cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes34c40.23$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.865,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x40b0…f139backed Yes45c40$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.1429740.7%121 W · 176 L+11.4wins+0.04per pick37cpaid+11.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0ac1…1a0ebacked Yes31c39.99$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.43537.1%13 W · 22 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick39cpaid+14.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7a30…37a6backed Yes51c39.52$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2040935%143 W · 266 L-3.9wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-7.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x52d7…0ff9backed No67c37.04$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.2538258.9%225 W · 157 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaccd…befdbacked Yes37c35.49$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.12437.5%9 W · 15 L-5.0wins-0.21per pick58cpaid-47.4%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x7e4b…ac6bbacked No65c35.44$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.5135854.7%196 W · 162 L-13.7wins-0.04per pick59cpaid-11.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb72f…7af1backed Yes31c35.16$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.920%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6de9…a8e5backed No70c32.3$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.5320161.7%124 W · 77 L-10.1wins-0.05per pick67cpaid-7.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5c38…f194backed No40c31.99$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.092,51747.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L+52.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed No68c31.93$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.37,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xae47…638dbacked No72c31.24$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.5952571.2%374 W · 151 L+4.7wins+0.01per pick70cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeb54…d452backed No64c31$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.164,52565.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L-134.0wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes35c30$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.53,83047.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L+63.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No69c30$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.33,75561.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L-36.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x12ea…a131backed No68c30$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.698565.1%641 W · 344 L-13.1wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9cfd…dfe7backed Yes43c28.66$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.2699961.8%617 W · 382 L+19.0wins+0.02per pick60cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb2aa…3e28backed No71c28$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.035959.3%35 W · 24 L-3.0wins-0.05per pick64cpaid-10.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8215…1279backed No51c26.69$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.0938758.7%227 W · 160 L+3.5wins+0.01per pick58cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2dba…5b01backed No73c26.55$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.185766.7%38 W · 19 L-3.2wins-0.06per pick72cpaid-9.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdc3c…a384backed No73c25.48$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.983928.2%11 W · 28 L-4.2wins-0.11per pick39cpaid-42.7%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x75b0…e7b7backed No65c25$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.751,58578.5%1,244 W · 341 L+39.7wins+0.03per pick76cpaid+3.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb025…38bbbacked Yes44c24$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.61837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-21.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No56c22.01$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.684,96168.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L+65.6wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3061…d998backed Yes55c21.71$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12650%3 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.16per pick66cpaid-28.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf5dc…dec3backed No73c20.62$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.571,36069.3%943 W · 417 L+9.4wins+0.01per pick69cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3c4a…668abacked No67c20.32$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.611163.6%7 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick58cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa912…297fbacked No66c20.24$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.9863656.1%357 W · 279 L+1.9wins0.00per pick56cpaid-4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4248…60abbacked No54c18.75$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.632,21958.7%1,303 W · 916 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc52a…e37abacked No76c18$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.3818272%131 W · 51 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick73cpaid-1.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.