TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on May 5?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$28,859
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$30,695

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,859 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 104 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x7735…4740backed Yes46c3,109$1,443 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,666.7325933.6%87 W · 172 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x26fc…4c27backed No1c2,980$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.81310.8%1 W · 130 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick2cpaid-97.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x652d…46b3backed No5c928.53$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.1961820.7%128 W · 490 L+36.9wins+0.06per pick15cpaid-7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd035…f165backed No32c515.95$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.9759021.7%128 W · 462 L-24.2wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-40.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9cb3…1367backed No45c358.16$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.691,55433.1%515 W · 1,039 L-66.6wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-27.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No39c325.33$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.464,10456.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L+50.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x17f0…20febacked No5c314.3$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.721516.6%10 W · 141 L-3.2wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-53.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd3fe…6800backed No54c249.24$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.94425%1 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.12per pick37cpaid-47.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x29f8…4d7bbacked No51c246.74$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.3118368.9%126 W · 57 L+25.2wins+0.14per pick55cpaid+31.3%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed No49c239.72$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.943,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No45c234.81$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.6612,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf7a2…c0c5backed Yes80c231.49$184 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.024463.6%28 W · 16 L-2.9wins-0.07per pick70cpaid-12.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xdedd…17e1backed No48c231.33$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.62,43260.4%1,470 W · 962 L+30.2wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked No7c224$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.684,34729.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L+19.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x8297…d600backed No73c208.26$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.0913448.5%65 W · 69 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-14.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes34c201.31$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.0617,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7c48…6b72backed Yes36c190.43$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.2645238.5%174 W · 278 L-14.1wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xeb7f…0abbbacked Yes54c186.52$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.0718948.1%91 W · 98 L-3.0wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-10.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes36c185.21$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.189,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No47c179$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.895,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaccd…befdbacked No56c164.96$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.762437.5%9 W · 15 L-5.0wins-0.21per pick58cpaid-47.4%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xd1a6…1507backed No26c157.61$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.32,62654%1,418 W · 1,208 L-56.4wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-19.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa708…9321backed No42c145.57$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.591,29957.5%747 W · 552 L+11.8wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-9.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No64c137.52$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.348,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x51f6…9f18backed Yes56c131.18$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.0714659.6%87 W · 59 L+4.6wins+0.03per pick56cpaid-2.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3d1d…9e61backed No48c130.94$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.482,87064.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L-32.8wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x52d7…0ff9backed No46c127.58$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.6738258.9%225 W · 157 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc120…a7e3backed No28c113.33$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.821,29954.1%703 W · 596 L+24.7wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5425…4c65backed No52c102.45$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.3527852.9%147 W · 131 L+1.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb684…343cbacked No56c102.38$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.8216968%115 W · 54 L+7.9wins+0.05per pick63cpaid+7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0ba3…57bcbacked No56c101.51$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.0139159.8%234 W · 157 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbc84…a0d2backed Yes40c100.04$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.0610634.9%37 W · 69 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+59.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdfe8…9f16backed Yes41c97.85$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.85128.3%1 W · 11 L-1.7wins-0.14per pick23cpaid-79.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No42c94.24$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.4412,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x108a…8159backed No20c91.9$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.4958732.9%193 W · 394 L+34.4wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+15.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x82ca…3135backed No54c90.87$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.141,02664%657 W · 369 L+49.8wins+0.05per pick59cpaid+4.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8215…1279backed No56c84.13$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.8638758.7%227 W · 160 L+3.5wins+0.01per pick58cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb732…6900backed No51c80.82$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.3841258.3%240 W · 172 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xedbd…dd60backed No47c77.5$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.733,30165%2,147 W · 1,154 L-38.5wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3ead…b7bfbacked No53c75.6$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$404170.7%29 W · 12 L+7.1wins+0.17per pick53cpaid+46.8%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x9bda…439fbacked Yes50c73.48$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.7659440.6%241 W · 353 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No53c70.97$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.619,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes38c70$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.753,93935.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L+35.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd50c…3360backed No57c67.88$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.928142%118 W · 163 L+8.7wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+10.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xde8a…a3fcbacked No48c65$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.3917355.5%96 W · 77 L+10.8wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+14.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa7af…0158backed Yes48c62.06$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.061435.7%5 W · 9 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-18.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x85c8…80f8backed No43c57.32$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.6139158.1%227 W · 164 L-1.3wins0.00per pick58cpaid-4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ec1…07a5backed No54c55.02$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.7124768.4%169 W · 78 L+12.8wins+0.05per pick63cpaid+4.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3c69…e671backed No57c53.27$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.251070%7 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.09per pick61cpaid+8.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x07fd…54c7backed No65c52$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$341546.7%7 W · 8 L-1.8wins-0.12per pick59cpaid-28%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd92f…acacbacked No48c51.53$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.745714%8 W · 49 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick16cpaid-36%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes37c50$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.31,22733.9%416 W · 811 L+45.1wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+10.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2986…b3a9backed No30c50$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152,99531.4%940 W · 2,055 L+41.6wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1440…7712backed Yes36c49.98$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.989035.6%32 W · 58 L-0.4wins0.00per pick36cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcf7c…b00dbacked No63c49.94$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.4678663.6%500 W · 286 L-0.3wins0.00per pick64cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3cd4…ea0ebacked No27c48.35$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.2943859.6%261 W · 177 L+4.6wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7554…0b84backed Yes54c47.71$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.7114040.7%57 W · 83 L+4.9wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+10.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe49f…b083backed Yes50c47$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.3718837.2%70 W · 118 L+5.0wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x36c7…e7fdbacked Yes44c46$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.766147.5%29 W · 32 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb34f…c66bbacked Yes49c43.93$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.43560%3 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.08per pick52cpaid-2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7dfe…aef2backed Yes34c42.71$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.110228.4%29 W · 73 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-12.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes43c41.38$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.4999949.5%495 W · 504 L+1.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid+2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xae2e…40adbacked Yes43c40.99$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.3629520.7%61 W · 234 L+7.8wins+0.03per pick18cpaid+25.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x89e3…5d22backed No71c40.68$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.946764.2%43 W · 24 L-3.5wins-0.05per pick69cpaid-8.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4033…48c5backed No57c40.07$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.72360.9%14 W · 9 L+2.1wins+0.09per pick52cpaid+12.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x40b0…f139backed Yes45c40$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.1429740.7%121 W · 176 L+11.4wins+0.04per pick37cpaid+11.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x39c9…b108backed Yes41c39.99$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.7934457%196 W · 148 L+8.6wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0f60…026abacked No64c39.81$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.4399963.5%634 W · 365 L-3.0wins0.00per pick64cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcb26…0e22backed No53c39.58$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.8139157%223 W · 168 L-6.0wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-9.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes47c39.08$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.785,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcc57…ce71backed Yes52c38.73$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.731872.2%13 W · 5 L+6.1wins+0.34per pick38cpaid+96.7%equal weight66+0.14 edge/pick
0x4560…8ce8backed No55c38.21$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.9635058.3%204 W · 146 L+4.8wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7e4b…ac6bbacked No43c37$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.0835854.7%196 W · 162 L-13.7wins-0.04per pick59cpaid-11.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No57c36.89$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.937,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0xf910…5912backed Yes47c35$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.64571.1%32 W · 13 L+5.1wins+0.11per pick60cpaid+28.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb70d…253abacked Yes57c33.95$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.4615152.3%79 W · 72 L+4.8wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+16.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No63c32.4$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.485,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x27c5…0d4cbacked No49c31.99$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.612758.3%74 W · 53 L-4.0wins-0.03per pick61cpaid-3.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xeb54…d452backed No64c31$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.844,52565.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L-134.0wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6599…ac95backed No58c30.56$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.72250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+36.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5c38…f194backed No40c30.31$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.242,51747.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L+52.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes48c30$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.63,83047.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L+63.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No68c30$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.553,05761.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L-35.2wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9033…bd50backed Yes54c30$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.851250%6 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+11.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec7c…7ad4backed Yes51c30$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.819037.4%71 W · 119 L-0.7wins0.00per pick38cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd16e…c43ebacked No40c29.75$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.77633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.16per pick49cpaid-48.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdc3c…ad7abacked No55c29.04$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.9210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb025…38bbbacked Yes64c27$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.77837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-21.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xab5e…47f6backed Yes48c26.5$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.815935.6%21 W · 38 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-9.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x77bd…e48fbacked No46c25.91$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.9220928.7%60 W · 149 L-45.3wins-0.22per pick50cpaid-44.4%equal weight28-0.19 edge/pick
0xc445…1724backed No68c24.58$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.8825%2 W · 6 L-1.6wins-0.20per pick45cpaid-57.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7903…57f6backed No64c24$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.3627769%191 W · 86 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick68cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4248…60abbacked No63c22.47$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.162,21958.7%1,303 W · 916 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcd9b…492abacked No58c21.92$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.7617365.3%113 W · 60 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick67cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa912…297fbacked No53c20.24$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.6363656.1%357 W · 279 L+1.9wins0.00per pick56cpaid-4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9ca7…c5b6backed Yes50c20$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107100%7 W · 0 L+2.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+51.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8971…809dbacked No64c20$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.81,95946%901 W · 1,058 L-51.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x88b6…7a17backed No55c20$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.065565.5%36 W · 19 L+5.5wins+0.10per pick56cpaid+2.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x855e…de25backed Yes77c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.64643.5%20 W · 26 L-7.7wins-0.17per pick60cpaid-31.5%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x81ab…5f31backed Yes50c20$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1028946.4%134 W · 155 L-14.6wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-12.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.