CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: SAW vs NIP (BO3)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc2a265bbc131f7a7c26f0495d01611c7b0f4823e8cba407022fe7cb51d85da7b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- SAWof SAW, NIP
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $48,261
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $48,407
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $48,261 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3993…cdedbacked NIP | 67c | 6,723$4,504 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,504.48 | 836 | 52.5%439 W · 397 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9b…414dbacked SAW | 32c | 5,458$1,745 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,713.4 | 111 | 46.8%52 W · 59 L | -7.6wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf0…153ebacked SAW | 33c | 5,112$1,687 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,425.04 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +60.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac75…1319backed SAW | 34c | 5,000$1,700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,299.99 | 164 | 49.4%81 W · 83 L | +5.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a3…b1dfbacked SAW | 61c | 4,770$2,918 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,851.84 | 130 | 50%65 W · 65 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa925…e1c8backed NIP | 41c | 3,829$1,561 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,560.51 | 84 | 46.4%39 W · 45 L | -5.3wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed NIP | 66c | 3,229$2,135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,135.47 | 208 | 56.3%117 W · 91 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9823…02dbbacked SAW | 47c | 2,801$1,323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,478.24 | 470 | 55.7%262 W · 208 L | +27.7wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d9…4d8bbacked NIP | 66c | 1,970$1,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,300.2 | 154 | 52.6%81 W · 73 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x490a…1d4bbacked NIP | 36c | 1,736$625 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$625.04 | 292 | 35.6%104 W · 188 L | -11.0wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb083…b3f0backed SAW | 54c | 1,674$904 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$769.96 | 216 | 45.4%98 W · 118 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a78…add7backed SAW | 42c | 1,507$628 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$878.81 | 1,969 | 46.7%919 W · 1,050 L | +12.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf32d…bbbbbacked NIP | 69c | 1,212$833 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$832.65 | 609 | 53.4%325 W · 284 L | -31.0wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5388…4d5abacked NIP | 66c | 1,201$793 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$792.94 | 220 | 56.4%124 W · 96 L | +19.9wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfd14…2267backed SAW | 33c | 1,111$367 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$744.44 | 5,830 | 37.8%2,203 W · 3,627 L | +79.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2418…66c8backed SAW | 33c | 1,000$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$670 | 608 | 53.3%324 W · 284 L | +20.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…90e0backed SAW | 43c | 995.31$423 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$572.23 | 4,228 | 49.2%2,080 W · 2,148 L | +59.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed SAW | 49c | 957.23$473 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$484 | 273 | 45.8%125 W · 148 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc151…2501backed NIP | 74c | 951.63$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 64 | 56.3%36 W · 28 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x25f4…20e0backed NIP | 66c | 909.09$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 212 | 51.4%109 W · 103 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0caf…91adbacked SAW | 60c | 746$449 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$296.86 | 124 | 65.3%81 W · 43 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8541…a367backed SAW | 39c | 599.98$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$365.99 | 283 | 44.2%125 W · 158 L | +17.1wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x53ab…65aabacked SAW | 33c | 599.96$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$401.97 | 1,144 | 49.4%565 W · 579 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2c9…2c23backed NIP | 69c | 574$395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$394.58 | 196 | 60.7%119 W · 77 L | -13.9wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x60b6…eb2bbacked NIP | 37c | 525$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195 | 264 | 38.6%102 W · 162 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed SAW | 32c | 520.34$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$353.87 | 1,259 | 42.5%535 W · 724 L | +20.6wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6df6…8458backed NIP | 39c | 513.88$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.14 | 324 | 25.3%82 W · 242 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…58e2backed NIP | 37c | 500$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185 | 463 | 40.8%189 W · 274 L | -9.8wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed NIP | 67c | 500$335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$335 | 283 | 51.9%147 W · 136 L | +8.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed NIP | 40c | 488.99$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.6 | 854 | 46.4%396 W · 458 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd9…f0d5backed NIP | 68c | 443.77$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 265 | 63%167 W · 98 L | -9.0wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9273…fcf8backed NIP | 69c | 433.22$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.92 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd92d…e560backed NIP | 66c | 400$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264 | 586 | 51%299 W · 287 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c5b…50c9backed SAW | 32c | 377$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.36 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6ee…697bbacked NIP | 65c | 331.86$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.71 | 98 | 61.2%60 W · 38 L | +5.5wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde53…e5bebacked SAW | 35c | 329$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.85 | 1,262 | 46.9%592 W · 670 L | -34.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa856…3964backed SAW | 33c | 303.03$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.03 | 222 | 42.8%95 W · 127 L | -12.5wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0659…d74dbacked SAW | 61c | 272.47$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.23 | 980 | 52.4%514 W · 466 L | +26.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14a0…22bbbacked NIP | 64c | 225.31$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.12 | 1,393 | 65.9%918 W · 475 L | +26.8wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38dd…c20abacked NIP | 66c | 200$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132 | 98 | 38.8%38 W · 60 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6758…1618backed SAW | 25c | 196.84$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.84 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.17per pick | 38cpaid | +38.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x60b2…c82fbacked SAW | 38c | 175.13$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.58 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | -8.6wins | -0.18per pick | 53cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed NIP | 63c | 175.02$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.27 | 670 | 41.8%280 W · 390 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb358…122cbacked NIP | 60c | 166.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 72 | 55.6%40 W · 32 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa61d…df1abacked NIP | 64c | 155.72$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 166 | 49.4%82 W · 84 L | -15.4wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed NIP | 65c | 153.85$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 367 | 51%187 W · 180 L | -15.8wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xecba…5fb4backed SAW | 39c | 152.55$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.31 | 245 | 54.7%134 W · 111 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa76e…dcb6backed NIP | 66c | 150$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 1,310 | 53.7%703 W · 607 L | +32.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f61…9212backed NIP | 68c | 147.06$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3731…405fbacked SAW | 56c | 137.21$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.17 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed SAW | 27c | 130$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.38 | 1,500 | 9.9%148 W · 1,352 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4731…cba8backed NIP | 40c | 119.53$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.23 | 100 | 55%55 W · 45 L | +7.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…14a3backed NIP | 67c | 119.4$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 234 | 54.7%128 W · 106 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4627…7c23backed NIP | 66c | 100$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 374 | 48.4%181 W · 193 L | -16.6wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd470…783ebacked NIP | 66c | 100$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb819…cc67backed NIP | 45c | 78.68$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.41 | 241 | 55.6%134 W · 107 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0fd…5b3cbacked SAW | 54c | 52$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.92 | 116 | 44%51 W · 65 L | -5.6wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -14%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbff4…eaf3backed NIP | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 114 | 28.1%32 W · 82 L | -9.7wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked SAW | 64c | 44.81$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.13 | 421 | 49.6%209 W · 212 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…f102backed NIP | 66c | 42.42$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 736 | 58.2%428 W · 308 L | -22.8wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5425…8b3abacked NIP | 42c | 40.48$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 200 | 52.5%105 W · 95 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x073a…6f98backed NIP | 42c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 56 | 57.1%32 W · 24 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x02e0…9633backed NIP | 66c | 37.88$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 40 | 60%24 W · 16 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac0c…739cbacked NIP | 54c | 27.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 660 | 34.1%225 W · 435 L | -21.3wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde01…b276backed NIP | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1568…c958backed NIP | 69c | 22.38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.44 | 279 | 50.2%140 W · 139 L | -5.8wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.