NFL · resolved market
Spread: TB (-6.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc2b7bb40586b9ca81007de03c98e94fc0ddda1fb284cb50de8191eedf3610870
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- NYJof TB, NYJ
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $69,827
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $69,863
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $69,827 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9ec2…69fdbacked TB | 50c | 40,000$20,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20,000 | 117 | 55.6%65 W · 52 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9249…4f16backed NYJ | 50c | 29,080$14,540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,540 | 176 | 47.7%84 W · 92 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked TB | 49c | 10,671$5,197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,197.09 | 225 | 48.4%109 W · 116 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68df…4815backed NYJ | 51c | 8,586$4,379 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,207.3 | 181 | 56.9%103 W · 78 L | +11.8wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb1e…88d5backed NYJ | 51c | 6,038$3,079 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,958.62 | 55 | 60%33 W · 22 L | +4.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb7…e33dbacked NYJ | 50c | 5,686$2,843 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,843 | 418 | 51.9%217 W · 201 L | +13.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked TB | 49c | 5,000$2,450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,450 | 831 | 47.8%397 W · 434 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked NYJ | 50c | 3,200$1,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,600 | 206 | 61.2%126 W · 80 L | +12.3wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…5b15backed NYJ | 50c | 3,174$1,585 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,588.5 | 105 | 52.4%55 W · 50 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed TB | 49c | 3,062$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500.36 | 373 | 50.9%190 W · 183 L | +12.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe38e…c29dbacked NYJ | 52c | 2,520$1,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,219.8 | 105 | 66.7%70 W · 35 L | +12.6wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed NYJ | 50c | 2,500$1,250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,250 | 184 | 35.9%66 W · 118 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed NYJ | 52c | 2,147$1,116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,030.53 | 358 | 48.6%174 W · 184 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f89…0d03backed NYJ | 52c | 1,923$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$923.08 | 53 | 30.2%16 W · 37 L | -8.5wins | -0.16per pick | 46cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5672…5019backed TB | 48c | 1,875$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | -4.3wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf5f2…0234backed NYJ | 51c | 942$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$461.58 | 76 | 57.9%44 W · 32 L | +6.3wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +134.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed TB | 47c | 786.9$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$369.84 | 611 | 48.6%297 W · 314 L | +10.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…0a77backed NYJ | 53c | 754.72$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$354.72 | 42 | 59.5%25 W · 17 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c86…cd2bbacked TB | 52c | 600$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41b7…f6babacked TB | 49c | 499.99$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245 | 297 | 51.5%153 W · 144 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed NYJ | 50c | 418.01$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209 | 834 | 47.1%393 W · 441 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7eda…4bb7backed TB | 50c | 400$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 143 | 44.1%63 W · 80 L | -8.1wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6692…1125backed TB | 45c | 300$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed TB | 57c | 279.66$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.41 | 684 | 46.1%315 W · 369 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf48d…fe48backed NYJ | 52c | 240$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.2 | 149 | 49%73 W · 76 L | +7.9wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x53f1…9434backed TB | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fbb…2771backed TB | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed NYJ | 43c | 199.86$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.92 | 419 | 47.3%198 W · 221 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed NYJ | 53c | 190$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.4 | 553 | 45%249 W · 304 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19e8…ad4bbacked TB | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -4.2wins | -0.30per pick | 51cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x15e3…009fbacked TB | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 174 | 59.2%103 W · 71 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…7017backed TB | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 104 | 53.8%56 W · 48 L | +8.1wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfc23…8283backed TB | 51c | 83.33$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.5 | 127 | 55.1%70 W · 57 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6edc…18cebacked TB | 51c | 78.43$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 175 | 48%84 W · 91 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed NYJ | 51c | 78$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.22 | 304 | 42.4%129 W · 175 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb272…2febbacked NYJ | 49c | 69.39$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.39 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 56cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3853…a3d3backed TB | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xced0…c680backed TB | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 135 | 55.6%75 W · 60 L | +6.8wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf9d…3ea9backed TB | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 266 | 60.9%162 W · 104 L | +13.0wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0aaa…8212backed NYJ | 51c | 38.87$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.87 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…4f2abacked NYJ | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 198 | 44.9%89 W · 109 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9d…952bbacked TB | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02f7…b17abacked NYJ | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 118 | 55.9%66 W · 52 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5318…2a91backed TB | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 105 | 49.5%52 W · 53 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: TB (-6.5)this page
- Jets vs. BuccaneersBuccaneers won
- Spread: TB (-4.5)NYJ won
- Spread: TB (-7.5)NYJ won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.