Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on July 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc2d034f7afa393444688a8a1f4111dce744aad5dfc9fc6971e8af668b65efa83
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,750
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,500
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,750 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 1c | 1,364$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 26c | 487.16$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.09 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf0c…28a6backed Yes | 21c | 480.87$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 22c | 316.45$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.42 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 9c | 200.55$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.95 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e42…4938backed Yes | 19c | 188.78$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.27 | 388 | 30.2%117 W · 271 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 79c | 174.42$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.05 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc15…cca6backed Yes | 26c | 144.88$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.67 | 264 | 41.3%109 W · 155 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 19c | 125.17$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62d3…e694backed Yes | 21c | 117.7$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.19 | 161 | 35.4%57 W · 104 L | -12.0wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 27c | 111$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.92 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaab7…dd3bbacked Yes | 12c | 104.6$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.55 | 159 | 40.3%64 W · 95 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1570…de29backed No | 79c | 101.33$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.33 | 440 | 58.2%256 W · 184 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d3b…3a20backed Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 169 | 37.3%63 W · 106 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd456…8a8bbacked Yes | 20c | 99.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x42e5…c9a7backed Yes | 22c | 99.9$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.98 | 410 | 33.7%138 W · 272 L | +20.9wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x567f…94b9backed Yes | 15c | 99.7$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.79 | 489 | 19.2%94 W · 395 L | -38.7wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 70c | 96.77$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.74 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 76c | 79.98$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.96 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 17c | 70.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.14 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x0fe5…91aabacked No | 71c | 70.24$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.24 | 70 | 51.4%36 W · 34 L | -6.5wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 19c | 66.49$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.39 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 74c | 61$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.05 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a56…be30backed Yes | 28c | 60$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 464 | 52.2%242 W · 222 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7609…1443backed No | 78c | 60$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x618c…1d52backed Yes | 26c | 55$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x695f…1b67backed Yes | 20c | 51.2$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -2.4wins | -0.20per pick | 37cpaid | -70.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed No | 73c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.57 | 559 | 54.7%306 W · 253 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 22c | 48.85$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.68 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed No | 78c | 41.11$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.02 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 78c | 41.03$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.03 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3f…5d84backed No | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 802 | 75.7%607 W · 195 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa760…2c51backed No | 79c | 31.38$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.59 | 212 | 64.6%137 W · 75 L | +14.6wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 74c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 76c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.15 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 76c | 28.29$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.79 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 76c | 23.84$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.81 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe229…ea0fbacked No | 71c | 18.53$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.37 | 272 | 47.8%130 W · 142 L | -10.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3880…db44backed No | 77c | 18.32$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.23 | 171 | 65.5%112 W · 59 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 78c | 18.02$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.96 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa51…6199backed No | 79c | 15.28$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.16 | 622 | 75.2%468 W · 154 L | +15.5wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ae…9156backed No | 74c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.64 | 15 | 86.7%13 W · 2 L | +3.1wins | +0.21per pick | 66cpaid | +37.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff3…4b1ebacked No | 79c | 13.86$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.96 | 80 | 73.8%59 W · 21 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 70cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac71…f74cbacked No | 78c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.89 | 89 | 62.9%56 W · 33 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on July 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on July 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on July 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on July 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on July 7?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on July 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C on July 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.