Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on July 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xea770d89a11ecc5b090bce81e578708f823ac33500494d92e0a93bc636f6a421
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,506
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,988
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,506 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb9f7…1494backed Yes | 28c | 621$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.92 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 29c | 474.1$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.16 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 11c | 355.13$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.6 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe549…0bcebacked Yes | 32c | 331.48$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.09 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dd8…15fcbacked No | 76c | 291.72$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.66 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 72c | 286.11$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.86 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 12c | 275.43$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.83 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 32c | 257.16$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.29 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 67c | 235$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.55 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 74c | 173.68$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.56 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaab7…dd3bbacked Yes | 24c | 162.14$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.76 | 159 | 40.3%64 W · 95 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 73c | 145$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.84 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5470…0af7backed No | 73c | 137.06$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.3 | 328 | 72%236 W · 92 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 28c | 127.93$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.76 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86b1…c094backed Yes | 12c | 125.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.13 | 273 | 28.6%78 W · 195 L | -10.4wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 71c | 124.84$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.25 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 22c | 120.4$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.8 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8d…3b13backed Yes | 29c | 109.98$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.19 | 81 | 46.9%38 W · 43 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb5…dfcabacked Yes | 28c | 106.62$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.25 | 239 | 51%122 W · 117 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x62d3…e694backed Yes | 30c | 99.96$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 161 | 35.4%57 W · 104 L | -12.0wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0165…902bbacked Yes | 31c | 96.77$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d3b…3a20backed Yes | 29c | 93.84$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.91 | 169 | 37.3%63 W · 106 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed No | 70c | 91.94$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.58 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 70c | 91.93$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.58 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 25c | 89.77$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.22 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 73c | 89.51$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.17 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 29c | 87.73$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.68 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd615…ae32backed Yes | 29c | 78$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.3 | 339 | 62.8%213 W · 126 L | +40.8wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 28c | 73.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.48 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 74c | 73$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.8 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 73c | 71.51$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.25 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 27c | 63.16$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.3 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 32c | 60$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf01d…bb31backed No | 71c | 59.35$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.21 | 162 | 72.2%117 W · 45 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 73c | 58.94$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.01 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 28c | 55.1$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.16 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71e4…feb3backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4580…4357backed Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 65 | 20%13 W · 52 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed Yes | 29c | 49.59$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.38 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 23c | 49.26$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.33 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8473…5511backed Yes | 22c | 48.03$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 91 | 28.6%26 W · 65 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 72c | 46$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.88 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0739…aba8backed No | 69c | 43.91$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.61 | 373 | 55%205 W · 168 L | +20.5wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed Yes | 25c | 42.64$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.74 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 75c | 41.84$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.52 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xcff7…2fb1backed Yes | 29c | 41.8$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.93 | 214 | 51.9%111 W · 103 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked Yes | 28c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.21 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 31c | 37.95$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.71 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7fad…9542backed No | 66c | 34.86$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fa…60f9backed No | 76c | 34.68$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.37 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.25per pick | 59cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x914e…8355backed No | 68c | 32.16$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.29 | 168 | 59.5%100 W · 68 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 73c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e16…7f14backed No | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 220 | 64.5%142 W · 78 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed No | 72c | 27.38$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.66 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 73c | 25.01$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 548 | 67.3%369 W · 179 L | +26.4wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 74c | 20.21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.35 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3880…db44backed No | 71c | 18.32$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.23 | 171 | 65.5%112 W · 59 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa51…6199backed No | 69c | 17.65$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.47 | 622 | 75.2%468 W · 154 L | +15.5wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 67c | 17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.61 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4eab…2caabacked No | 71c | 16.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.93 | 445 | 67%298 W · 147 L | +17.6wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x194b…2a11backed No | 71c | 16.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.93 | 288 | 66.3%191 W · 97 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 71c | 16.5$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.72 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff3…4b1ebacked No | 76c | 14.85$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.56 | 80 | 73.8%59 W · 21 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 70cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on July 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on July 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on July 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on July 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on July 7?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on July 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C on July 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.