Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on July 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd33ac3075df0e093ac82fdecd8b4a6c613a5b1851a38b9a72d8b905805b329e0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,088
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,479
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,088 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 27c | 369.01$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.93 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 54c | 348.42$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.99 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 30c | 344.28$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.69 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 58c | 308.58$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.63 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 28c | 276$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.31 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62d3…e694backed Yes | 65c | 239.42$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.01 | 161 | 35.4%57 W · 104 L | -12.0wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe25c…7908backed No | 38c | 188.64$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.34 | 228 | 57.5%131 W · 97 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 19c | 159.74$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.4 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 21c | 159.65$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.91 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3311…d659backed Yes | 67c | 149.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.25 | 195 | 51.8%101 W · 94 L | -8.7wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e42…4938backed Yes | 25c | 148.66$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.43 | 388 | 30.2%117 W · 271 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 27c | 145.78$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.47 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb5…dfcabacked Yes | 66c | 141.98$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.18 | 239 | 51%122 W · 117 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 43c | 132$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…78d8backed Yes | 78c | 128.06$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.06 | 249 | 42.6%106 W · 143 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 72c | 112.09$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.07 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 71c | 101$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.45 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 17c | 96.89$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.42 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe229…ea0fbacked Yes | 25c | 94.33$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.51 | 272 | 47.8%130 W · 142 L | -10.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 72c | 86.01$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.03 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 27c | 80$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.4 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 75c | 65.07$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.55 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked No | 76c | 64$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.64 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 32c | 61.12$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.63 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 73c | 58.63$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.8 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x567f…94b9backed Yes | 24c | 56$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.6 | 489 | 19.2%94 W · 395 L | -38.7wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd5f5…feb9backed Yes | 25c | 54.42$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.57 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaab7…dd3bbacked Yes | 50c | 52.98$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.32 | 159 | 40.3%64 W · 95 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf237…f6a5backed No | 76c | 52.77$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.02 | 30 | 76.7%23 W · 7 L | +4.3wins | +0.14per pick | 62cpaid | +24%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe163…0ce3backed Yes | 66c | 51.49$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.73 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 69cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 66c | 51.37$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.8 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 38c | 51.16$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.46 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x8d06…c734backed Yes | 78c | 51.07$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.24 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 67cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4580…4357backed Yes | 25c | 50$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.6 | 65 | 20%13 W · 52 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 33c | 49.25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.25 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3ba9…9c5bbacked No | 51c | 44.89$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.83 | 101 | 33.7%34 W · 67 L | -10.9wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 73c | 41.96$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.84 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a86…9f83backed Yes | 72c | 41.93$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.93 | 84 | 76.2%64 W · 20 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3b4…f2c6backed Yes | 26c | 39.88$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.51 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 76c | 38.17$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.02 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6671…e109backed No | 76c | 37.25$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.31 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0751…073abacked Yes | 80c | 36.54$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.36 | 192 | 55.2%106 W · 86 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +10%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc15…cca6backed Yes | 28c | 36.32$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.1 | 264 | 41.3%109 W · 155 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb34d…2a65backed Yes | 31c | 35.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.83 | 57 | 24.6%14 W · 43 L | -15.2wins | -0.27per pick | 51cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 29-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0b…a782backed Yes | 68c | 35.54$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.54 | 515 | 37.5%193 W · 322 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed No | 69c | 34.95$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd615…ae32backed Yes | 46c | 32.28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.39 | 339 | 62.8%213 W · 126 L | +40.8wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8fa9…6663backed No | 76c | 30.18$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.03 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbe…b95ebacked Yes | 78c | 29$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.38 | 419 | 66.6%279 W · 140 L | +36.9wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 41c | 28.96$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.93 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 74c | 27.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.35 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd113…6c00backed No | 76c | 27.17$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.65 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 57cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbefc…58febacked No | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 65 | 64.6%42 W · 23 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 76c | 25.01$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.01 | 548 | 67.3%369 W · 179 L | +26.4wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb86b…aabfbacked No | 74c | 23.85$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.65 | 158 | 68.4%108 W · 50 L | +12.7wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 71c | 23.23$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5504…a960backed No | 77c | 22.14$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.05 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.82 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3880…db44backed No | 76c | 18.32$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.85 | 171 | 65.5%112 W · 59 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6cd…eaecbacked Yes | 71c | 17.61$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.11 | 146 | 60.3%88 W · 58 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a56…be30backed No | 72c | 16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 464 | 52.2%242 W · 222 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa51…6199backed No | 76c | 15.89$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.08 | 622 | 75.2%468 W · 154 L | +15.5wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f70…133ebacked No | 76c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7274…c205backed Yes | 79c | 12.65$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.61 | 213 | 61%130 W · 83 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on July 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on July 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on July 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on July 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on July 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on July 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C on July 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.