Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on July 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc2d16a8fa3fd8310e8a2915de53bb35f7eee08682ba9b1f35b8fcae71918347a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,116
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,192
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,116 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdadb…1870backed Yes | 6c | 2,722$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.35 | 589 | 22.8%134 W · 455 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 15c | 1,404$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.64 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 2c | 743.37$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.54 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2f…f9babacked Yes | 6c | 530.14$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.72 | 165 | 32.1%53 W · 112 L | -9.4wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 20c | 527.07$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.47 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 14c | 488.48$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.6 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c7c…dc18backed Yes | 3c | 388.24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.65 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 24cpaid | -81.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf267…b0aebacked Yes | 3c | 350$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 99 | 9.1%9 W · 90 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86b1…c094backed Yes | 9c | 300$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 273 | 28.6%78 W · 195 L | -10.4wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 7c | 237.42$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.24 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 75c | 230.25$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.66 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 7c | 220.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.05 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9314…db74backed Yes | 10c | 199.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 260 | 25%65 W · 195 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2141…7fa2backed Yes | 12c | 199.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 182 | 19.2%35 W · 147 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 79c | 196.23$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.73 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc327…d803backed Yes | 32c | 186.31$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.13 | 401 | 32.9%132 W · 269 L | +24.7wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 71c | 183.5$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.88 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9470…989dbacked Yes | 20c | 181.77$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.97 | 109 | 27.5%30 W · 79 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 79c | 175.99$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.96 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 16c | 163.98$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.71 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xc24d…947abacked No | 73c | 143.8$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.5 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -2.8wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 16c | 140$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.6 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5641…6d0dbacked Yes | 18c | 133.32$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.47 | 563 | 22.9%129 W · 434 L | -32.9wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 71c | 125.16$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.96 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes | 18c | 121.32$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.17 | 695 | 20%139 W · 556 L | -44.4wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…9319backed Yes | 34c | 103.14$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 496 | 22.2%110 W · 386 L | +26.1wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeef1…21b8backed Yes | 54c | 93.52$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.61 | 435 | 40.5%176 W · 259 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 24c | 87.14$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.17 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 79c | 85.44$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.94 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e42…4938backed Yes | 35c | 65$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.95 | 388 | 30.2%117 W · 271 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f6a…f60cbacked Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 294 | 27.9%82 W · 212 L | +18.6wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xad50…3122backed Yes | 26c | 45.79$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.74 | 474 | 23.6%112 W · 362 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 79c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3f…5d84backed No | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 802 | 75.7%607 W · 195 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x667c…559cbacked Yes | 33c | 33.13$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +4.7wins | +0.13per pick | 41cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 77c | 32$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.36 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0288…ee2ebacked Yes | 47c | 31$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.57 | 222 | 32%71 W · 151 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde86…f015backed No | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6cab…8de4backed No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 85 | 62.4%53 W · 32 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…b1f2backed No | 79c | 18.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.99 | 51 | 60.8%31 W · 20 L | -3.5wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 77c | 18.14$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.17 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 63c | 16.22$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.95 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcef6…2adebacked No | 79c | 14.05$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.88 | 259 | 47.1%122 W · 137 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on July 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on July 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on July 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on July 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on July 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on July 21?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on July 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.