Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on July 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x78a08bd9e3757537509bb639d93edf49bff4cc2120f08ecb09a586b0e4988272
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,734
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,321
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,734 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 94 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdadb…1870backed No | 2c | 2,295$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.36 | 589 | 22.8%134 W · 455 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x488c…8c1cbacked No | 1c | 1,160$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.21 | 375 | 32.8%123 W · 252 L | +36.4wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +109.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd5ec…5946backed No | 1c | 1,066$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.06 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd05f…9009backed No | 1c | 923.57$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.49 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked No | 13c | 862.35$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.85 | 695 | 20%139 W · 556 L | -44.4wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 48c | 836.49$398 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$438.86 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…9319backed Yes | 59c | 700.95$413 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287.5 | 496 | 22.2%110 W · 386 L | +26.1wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x73c9…5eb1backed No | 72c | 697.85$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed Yes | 74c | 546.58$406 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.42 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 12c | 474.89$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.39 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2f…f9babacked No | 3c | 471.47$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.79 | 165 | 32.1%53 W · 112 L | -9.4wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4af8…9188backed Yes | 78c | 406.05$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.05 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -2.1wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x92eb…9668backed Yes | 39c | 330.77$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.28 | 109 | 36.7%40 W · 69 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 25c | 297.15$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.86 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 41c | 224.22$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.96 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 44c | 208.55$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.57 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 22c | 199.79$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.1 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4f6a…f60cbacked Yes | 72c | 196.07$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.36 | 294 | 27.9%82 W · 212 L | +18.6wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 28c | 176$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.33 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 28c | 175.83$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.97 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 12c | 172.67$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.99 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x5641…6d0dbacked No | 21c | 148.91$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.4 | 563 | 22.9%129 W · 434 L | -32.9wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 54c | 141.12$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.26 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 46c | 139.6$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.86 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e6f…528cbacked Yes | 28c | 130.56$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.38 | 44 | 36.4%16 W · 28 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 73c | 110$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.01 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e09…2116backed Yes | 28c | 102.56$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.44 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked Yes | 51c | 102.5$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 683 | 38.8%265 W · 418 L | +36.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb73…155fbacked Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ab…ea2fbacked Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 176 | 37.5%66 W · 110 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab9…8ba6backed Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 304 | 42.8%130 W · 174 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc327…d803backed Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 401 | 32.9%132 W · 269 L | +24.7wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 68c | 99.99$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfae6…4f84backed No | 66c | 99.99$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.99 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9314…db74backed Yes | 63c | 98.73$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.69 | 260 | 25%65 W · 195 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 28c | 96.36$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.1 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a93…24e0backed No | 75c | 90.59$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.58 | 258 | 77.5%200 W · 58 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 74cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36ef…3c3abacked Yes | 74c | 90.49$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.58 | 68 | 54.4%37 W · 31 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 33c | 89.98$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.99 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 71c | 89.93$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.85 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked No | 72c | 82$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.9 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 69c | 79.64$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.11 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 23c | 77.02$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.92 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ea7…1523backed Yes | 65c | 76$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.68 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 64c | 74.89$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.62 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 74c | 74$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.69 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed No | 69c | 72.19$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.12 | 213 | 70.9%151 W · 62 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 72cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf92…150fbacked Yes | 29c | 66.38$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.25 | 164 | 40.2%66 W · 98 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed Yes | 31c | 61.51$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.44 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 72c | 60$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.15 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf668…e47abacked Yes | 28c | 59.81$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.06 | 181 | 31.5%57 W · 124 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f2…6c8ebacked Yes | 27c | 55.55$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.55 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -16%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 34c | 55.23$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.21 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9470…989dbacked No | 49c | 53.86$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.45 | 109 | 27.5%30 W · 79 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f92…520fbacked Yes | 28c | 53.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.73 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed Yes | 27c | 50$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.5 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked Yes | 67c | 49.2$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.29 | 790 | 40.9%323 W · 467 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 43c | 46.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.48 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6cda…d7c6backed Yes | 33c | 43.97$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.33 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 71c | 42.36$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.07 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed Yes | 32c | 42.08$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.7 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 75c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0288…ee2ebacked Yes | 37c | 40$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 222 | 32%71 W · 151 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 33c | 37.41$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.08 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c60…5d2ebacked Yes | 74c | 36.52$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.63 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 73c | 35.78$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.12 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf5…41abbacked Yes | 69c | 35.33$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.91 | 472 | 39.8%188 W · 284 L | +31.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked Yes | 78c | 34.38$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.59 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 71c | 34.04$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 667 | 58%387 W · 280 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 34c | 32.32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0428…7d12backed Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.25 | 301 | 36.9%111 W · 190 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86d5…d80abacked No | 39c | 30.34$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.85 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a5a…0231backed No | 52c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 73cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 74c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4e…7dbbbacked Yes | 68c | 29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 386 | 55.7%215 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 49c | 28.47$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.41 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaff5…14babacked No | 71c | 28.17$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 153 | 75.2%115 W · 38 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 74cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 68c | 28$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.04 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56e3…9a51backed No | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 108 | 30.6%33 W · 75 L | -10.5wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x554e…b670backed Yes | 60c | 24.46$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.78 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7274…c205backed Yes | 42c | 24.39$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.14 | 213 | 61%130 W · 83 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe6e…2313backed No | 71c | 23.91$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.98 | 262 | 56.5%148 W · 114 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed No | 71c | 23$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.33 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…b1f2backed No | 66c | 22.73$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 51 | 60.8%31 W · 20 L | -3.5wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 69c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…42efbacked No | 71c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 155 | 45.2%70 W · 85 L | -13.9wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6cab…8de4backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 85 | 62.4%53 W · 32 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc295…c520backed Yes | 67c | 18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.02 | 44 | 63.6%28 W · 16 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78ab…a53fbacked Yes | 64c | 16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.76 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x965b…e530backed No | 67c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 57 | 70.2%40 W · 17 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b1e…f77bbacked No | 73c | 14$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.28 | 43 | 67.4%29 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on July 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on July 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on July 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on July 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on July 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on July 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on July 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.