Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on July 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x720d782a6e8d90caf49bf0f4dd616bd0f1f97f28a5f7d183a47d82a9ebd1982a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,923
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,296
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,923 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 4c | 1,634$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.06 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf421…efcebacked No | 69c | 969.1$669 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300.42 | 428 | 20.1%86 W · 342 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26b1…cc81backed No | 75c | 600$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 234 | 29.1%68 W · 166 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e09…2116backed Yes | 31c | 589.05$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.15 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed Yes | 30c | 499.99$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 24c | 412.89$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.56 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 25c | 367$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.82 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf267…b0aebacked Yes | 3c | 350$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 99 | 9.1%9 W · 90 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf12d…eeafbacked No | 73c | 307.73$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.03 | 167 | 33.5%56 W · 111 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa30f…4da6backed Yes | 21c | 216.7$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 211 | 32.2%68 W · 143 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 25c | 177.39$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.85 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 30c | 155.52$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.66 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e6f…528cbacked Yes | 29c | 131.72$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 44 | 36.4%16 W · 28 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 26c | 118.83$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 29c | 115.07$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.87 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9470…989dbacked Yes | 25c | 115$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.6 | 109 | 27.5%30 W · 79 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed Yes | 24c | 107$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.15 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc327…d803backed Yes | 22c | 100.22$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.05 | 401 | 32.9%132 W · 269 L | +24.7wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdb73…155fbacked Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0b5…e373backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 151 | 28.5%43 W · 108 L | -12.7wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfae6…4f84backed Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe412…4356backed Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 69 | 31.9%22 W · 47 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb259…9207backed Yes | 31c | 99.6$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.88 | 110 | 27.3%30 W · 80 L | -22.3wins | -0.20per pick | 48cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 32-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x5597…0c9fbacked No | 70c | 95.51$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.65 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +3.1wins | +0.12per pick | 42cpaid | +54.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 22c | 90.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 75c | 85$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 24c | 77.59$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e42…4938backed Yes | 24c | 70$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.9 | 388 | 30.2%117 W · 271 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes | 18c | 69.78$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.57 | 695 | 20%139 W · 556 L | -44.4wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 76c | 61$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.62 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 76c | 57.4$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.58 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed Yes | 25c | 56.53$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.13 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77f7…db24backed No | 72c | 55$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa05…9606backed Yes | 31c | 50.92$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.82 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -60.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 72c | 49.97$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.99 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 75c | 46$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.68 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6cda…d7c6backed Yes | 26c | 42.15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.96 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 76c | 41.67$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e97…96cebacked No | 76c | 41$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.84 | 87 | 49.4%43 W · 44 L | +5.9wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf456…d568backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 213 | 38%81 W · 132 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 27c | 39.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.79 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 71c | 39$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.31 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 73c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.99 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 73c | 29.6$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.99 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbdc9…6dfdbacked No | 71c | 27.86$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.94 | 205 | 74.6%153 W · 52 L | +7.5wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 75c | 26.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.74 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 75c | 25.93$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.52 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 78c | 24.25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.34 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 77c | 23.85$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.54 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 78c | 21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.67 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6cab…8de4backed No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 85 | 62.4%53 W · 32 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 78c | 18.33$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.1 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x274a…2246backed No | 76c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.6 | 24 | 70.8%17 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 68cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b1e…f77bbacked No | 78c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.14 | 43 | 67.4%29 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on July 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on July 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on July 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on July 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on July 21?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on July 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on July 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.