Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on August 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc2ee279cb9011704586488f95d72384a5ed049f08a6d3da460c6161174d8dd54
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,429
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,784
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,429 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked No | 61c | 361.13$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.29 | 720 | 42.2%304 W · 416 L | +26.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 42c | 238.53$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.73 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Yes | 39c | 219.23$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.78 | 564 | 24.5%138 W · 426 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32d1…e5c8backed No | 17c | 211.07$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.05 | 47 | 12.8%6 W · 41 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 9cpaid | +56%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 10c | 186.11$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.64 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 27c | 137.59$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.91 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a86…9f83backed Yes | 74c | 134.38$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.38 | 84 | 76.2%64 W · 20 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00b2…3ef1backed Yes | 79c | 126.99$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.15 | 71 | 76.1%54 W · 17 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 69cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 26c | 121.87$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.99 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x18ec…f311backed Yes | 41c | 106.85$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.52 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 17c | 89.95$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.67 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xadb0…1c8cbacked Yes | 74c | 71.72$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 541 | 43.1%233 W · 308 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 30c | 70$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 45c | 67.01$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.61 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c72…825ebacked Yes | 77c | 64.62$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.62 | 45 | 68.9%31 W · 14 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbe…b95ebacked Yes | 80c | 58.64$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 419 | 66.6%279 W · 140 L | +36.9wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 38c | 55.56$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.44 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed Yes | 45c | 55$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.25 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7861…3084backed Yes | 73c | 52.77$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.01 | 152 | 70.4%107 W · 45 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6780…41ccbacked Yes | 49c | 48.88$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.01 | 270 | 51.1%138 W · 132 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 73c | 48$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 55c | 46.89$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.89 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x234c…90dbbacked Yes | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.44 | 581 | 38.9%226 W · 355 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 56c | 43.86$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.52 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 57c | 42.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.63 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f9…8d24backed Yes | 39c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.4 | 477 | 38.8%185 W · 292 L | +18.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13fe…d040backed Yes | 37c | 35.13$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.23 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +172.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 39c | 33.06$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.11 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1c…3f79backed No | 58c | 30.9$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.92 | 493 | 59%291 W · 202 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 55c | 30.11$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.56 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 61c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 29.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2fe4…e1c0backed No | 46c | 29.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.79 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x186d…8bfebacked Yes | 70c | 29.57$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.87 | 191 | 66.5%127 W · 64 L | +6.9wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e20…dddcbacked Yes | 44c | 27.32$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.19 | 285 | 46.3%132 W · 153 L | -17.3wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6cd2…8eaabacked Yes | 42c | 25.19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.56 | 122 | 24.6%30 W · 92 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 56c | 24.4$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.73 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x531d…f04fbacked Yes | 66c | 24.29$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.29 | 31 | 74.2%23 W · 8 L | +4.1wins | +0.13per pick | 61cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb218…6261backed No | 56c | 21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 68 | 50%34 W · 34 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 57c | 21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.87 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 59c | 21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.36 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b55…0c2abacked No | 63c | 20.6$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.98 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 61c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb52…ef8abacked No | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | -3.9wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2b27…ff88backed No | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 98 | 49%48 W · 50 L | -6.1wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf361…08f6backed No | 60c | 18.82$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.29 | 47 | 63.8%30 W · 17 L | +4.4wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on August 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on August 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on August 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C on August 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 39°C or higher on August 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.