MLB · resolved market
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc2f7c5a6f0b70bf196e63703fd6f8ec6fc13c2c5aed2015490235fabcb0f9a78
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,613
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,446
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,613 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Under | 60c | 1,027$621 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$620.8 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8840…f51abacked Under | 2c | 1,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 32 | 0%0 W · 32 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 57c | 964.98$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550.04 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Over | 43c | 946.31$404 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$542.57 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Over | 53c | 887$470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$416.89 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 47c | 361.1$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.72 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 39c | 345.22$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.04 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 34c | 341.66$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.03 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Over | 39c | 332.82$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.02 | 1,912 | 53%1,014 W · 898 L | +42.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x428d…8cb6backed Under | 61c | 318.46$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.26 | 97 | 53.6%52 W · 45 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 58c | 244.04$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.85 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7597…1b3dbacked Over | 42c | 232$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.56 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +19%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x392b…f9a5backed Over | 42c | 191$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.78 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.33per pick | 43cpaid | +75.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Under | 17c | 160.71$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.1 | 707 | 37.6%266 W · 441 L | +24.5wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x789c…0d10backed Under | 65c | 151.68$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.22 | 287 | 49.5%142 W · 145 L | -10.5wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Under | 60c | 133.1$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.86 | 1,206 | 53.7%648 W · 558 L | +29.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Over | 40c | 125.1$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.06 | 403 | 41.4%167 W · 236 L | -20.0wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Over | 53c | 123.69$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.77 | 1,796 | 43.8%786 W · 1,010 L | -33.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under | 46c | 95$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.66 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 37c | 80.7$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.7 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Under | 59c | 80$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf655…7f1abacked Over | 40c | 60$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 412 | 36.7%151 W · 261 L | -16.5wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7dde…30b1backed Over | 42c | 57.88$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.57 | 434 | 59%256 W · 178 L | +19.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4318…9a94backed Under | 60c | 53.31$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.99 | 94 | 43.6%41 W · 53 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 37c | 50.35$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.72 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a96…b71dbacked Under | 65c | 39.69$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.74 | 107 | 42.1%45 W · 62 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 41c | 35.43$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.85 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 37c | 35.07$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.09 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Under | 48c | 35.02$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.81 | 2,144 | 39.6%849 W · 1,295 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5dc8…e209backed Under | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 461 | 52.1%240 W · 221 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad99…dbabbacked Under | 58c | 30.92$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.93 | 130 | 48.5%63 W · 67 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Over | 42c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 788 | 54.6%430 W · 358 L | +27.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc22e…eab8backed Under | 63c | 29.86$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.81 | 488 | 51.6%252 W · 236 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Over | 45c | 28.33$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.67 | 873 | 70.1%612 W · 261 L | +91.6wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe84f…b777backed Under | 62c | 18.37$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.39 | 424 | 51.9%220 W · 204 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5this page
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-2.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-3.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red SoxBoston Red Sox won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 6.5Over won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 7.5Over won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5Over won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red SoxYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.