MLB · resolved market
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x207145dedb32a4a77868f19e8119d44de2153fd42730712b0aba98a6a99ea1f8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $56,775
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $56,779
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $56,775 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe55a…ecf7backed Over | 53c | 14,597$7,680 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,916.77 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 54c | 11,173$5,980 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,193.03 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2a0…b16bbacked Under | 46c | 10,758$5,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,000 | 96 | 43.8%42 W · 54 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Over | 54c | 5,000$2,700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,300 | 501 | 52.5%263 W · 238 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 53c | 4,925$2,610 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,314.78 | 4,515 | 48.8%2,205 W · 2,310 L | -46.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 46c | 4,072$1,879 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,878.93 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Under | 47c | 2,796$1,311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,311.22 | 3,509 | 51%1,789 W · 1,720 L | +53.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bf1…b5afbacked Under | 47c | 2,611$1,227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,227.01 | 60 | 36.7%22 W · 38 L | -3.7wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -18%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd619…c461backed Under | 47c | 2,566$1,197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,196.82 | 647 | 52.4%339 W · 308 L | +28.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 51c | 2,482$1,273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,273.5 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d16…212ebacked Under | 48c | 2,053$986 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$985.62 | 206 | 48.1%99 W · 107 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Under | 48c | 2,048$973 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$972.8 | 2,311 | 51%1,179 W · 1,132 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0844…f46abacked Under | 47c | 2,000$930 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$930 | 169 | 48.5%82 W · 87 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3f…4333backed Under | 48c | 1,507$723 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$723.23 | 570 | 53.3%304 W · 266 L | +14.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…8ed9backed Under | 47c | 1,489$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$699.94 | 343 | 53.4%183 W · 160 L | +18.5wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 46c | 1,241$575 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$574.77 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 46c | 1,192$548 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$547.6 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…83dabacked Over | 54c | 1,111$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$511.11 | 138 | 51.4%71 W · 67 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0e50…2609backed Under | 48c | 1,078$513 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$513.23 | 878 | 50.5%443 W · 435 L | +12.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over | 53c | 678.34$363 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315.67 | 3,041 | 48%1,461 W · 1,580 L | -16.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Under | 46c | 584.99$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.1 | 1,635 | 49.3%806 W · 829 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 49c | 561.05$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.67 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 48c | 537.83$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.4 | 5,471 | 50.5%2,763 W · 2,708 L | +21.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb01d…46f0backed Over | 54c | 416.67$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.67 | 1,201 | 49.1%590 W · 611 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c57…40febacked Under | 48c | 328.18$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.8 | 215 | 50.2%108 W · 107 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa384…3c9fbacked Under | 47c | 319.14$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 281 | 47.7%134 W · 147 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 48c | 237.79$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.42 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 49c | 224.51$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.01 | 3,841 | 42.2%1,622 W · 2,219 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed Under | 48c | 216$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.4 | 965 | 53%511 W · 454 L | +18.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25ae…76c6backed Over | 54c | 189$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.94 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 48c | 185.51$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.28 | 5,812 | 43.7%2,541 W · 3,271 L | -188.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over | 52c | 179$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.21 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Under | 46c | 171.02$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.98 | 143 | 28.7%41 W · 102 L | -11.9wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Over | 56c | 150.36$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.62 | 2,093 | 51.1%1,070 W · 1,023 L | +44.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Under | 47c | 150$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.5 | 999 | 47.5%475 W · 524 L | -3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 50c | 147.56$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.16 | 5,149 | 54.7%2,815 W · 2,334 L | +231.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Under | 47c | 113.69$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.43 | 1,219 | 53.9%657 W · 562 L | +32.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 63c | 107$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.47 | 4,405 | 44.9%1,978 W · 2,427 L | +80.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Under | 48c | 99$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.52 | 1,848 | 49.6%917 W · 931 L | +28.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x789c…0d10backed Under | 50c | 97.66$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.83 | 287 | 49.5%142 W · 145 L | -10.5wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4318…9a94backed Under | 47c | 96.89$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.87 | 94 | 43.6%41 W · 53 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed Over | 57c | 92.98$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.98 | 475 | 49.7%236 W · 239 L | +17.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd17a…0373backed Over | 53c | 90$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.3 | 785 | 50.2%394 W · 391 L | +2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Over | 55c | 87.74$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.08 | 1,737 | 49.1%852 W · 885 L | +7.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 51c | 85.49$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.91 | 8,594 | 52.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L | +508.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Under | 47c | 81.91$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.9 | 2,995 | 47.9%1,435 W · 1,560 L | +12.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x31e7…fe2abacked Over | 56c | 80.36$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.36 | 161 | 44.1%71 W · 90 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Under | 47c | 80$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.6 | 1,828 | 54.1%989 W · 839 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x747f…f2d7backed Under | 48c | 63.1$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.29 | 170 | 47.1%80 W · 90 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Under | 48c | 60$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 1,753 | 50.8%890 W · 863 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Over | 27c | 53.7$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.2 | 1,194 | 29%346 W · 848 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Under | 48c | 50.31$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.15 | 411 | 41.4%170 W · 241 L | -21.0wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Under | 60c | 43.86$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.52 | 3,460 | 51.2%1,773 W · 1,687 L | +107.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb099…b313backed Over | 53c | 43.82$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.62 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 54c | 40.44$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.42 | 6,123 | 55.4%3,390 W · 2,733 L | +346.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked Under | 48c | 40.4$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.32 | 671 | 52.5%352 W · 319 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff2a…bfefbacked Over | 50c | 40.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.3 | 313 | 43.5%136 W · 177 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Under | 48c | 39.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 2,413 | 49.9%1,205 W · 1,208 L | +22.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5dc8…e209backed Over | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 461 | 52.1%240 W · 221 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Under | 49c | 37$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.02 | 1,819 | 49.3%896 W · 923 L | -24.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6383…6e28backed Over | 55c | 34.18$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.45 | 795 | 55.6%442 W · 353 L | +21.1wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe0a…b267backed Over | 53c | 33$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.51 | 122 | 54.9%67 W · 55 L | +5.6wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x47c9…2038backed Under | 46c | 32.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 476 | 46.8%223 W · 253 L | +27.0wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea7…078bbacked Under | 47c | 31.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6e…f544backed Under | 80c | 31.25$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 341 | 39.9%136 W · 205 L | -8.7wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c99…d91abacked Under | 47c | 31$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.57 | 122 | 35.2%43 W · 79 L | -10.5wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc22e…eab8backed Over | 53c | 29.88$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.04 | 488 | 51.6%252 W · 236 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Under | 46c | 29.56$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.63 | 1,797 | 50.4%906 W · 891 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56cc…d589backed Over | 56c | 28.59$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.69 | 1,278 | 57%728 W · 550 L | +33.3wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2892…e9d7backed Over | 52c | 28.11$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.49 | 348 | 46.8%163 W · 185 L | -12.9wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ce9…7115backed Over | 54c | 26.78$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.32 | 132 | 60.6%80 W · 52 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa402…d14bbacked Under | 48c | 24.85$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.82 | 221 | 51.6%114 W · 107 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70fc…ab12backed Over | 57c | 24.42$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 1,374 | 54.2%745 W · 629 L | +16.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ed5…3320backed Over | 52c | 22.1$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.61 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe84f…b777backed Under | 48c | 21.44$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 425 | 51.8%220 W · 205 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Over | 58c | 20.26$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.51 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x212b…0ba5backed Over | 53c | 18.87$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.87 | 536 | 55.8%299 W · 237 L | +22.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5this page
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-2.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-3.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red SoxBoston Red Sox won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 6.5Over won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 7.5Over won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5Over won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red SoxYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.