MLB · resolved market
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdd963525a9e724e8f16d058e93417b92767c8bba907e21a313509536c9c53e28
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Boston Red Soxof Boston Red Sox, Toronto Blue Jays
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $38,208
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,614
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,208 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Boston Red Sox | 40c | 15,815$6,251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,563.61 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 60c | 10,527$6,315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,315.02 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Toronto Blue Jays | 50c | 4,162$2,069 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,069.14 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35e8…9490backed Toronto Blue Jays | 2c | 2,508$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.06 | 44 | 0%0 W · 44 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Toronto Blue Jays | 64c | 2,297$1,465 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,465.18 | 3,041 | 48%1,461 W · 1,580 L | -16.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56ac…d77ebacked Boston Red Sox | 36c | 972.5$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$622.4 | 736 | 50.7%373 W · 363 L | +10.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Boston Red Sox | 68c | 604.27$412 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.19 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Toronto Blue Jays | 63c | 499.99$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314.99 | 5,471 | 50.5%2,763 W · 2,708 L | +21.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61f1…7aefbacked Boston Red Sox | 37c | 473.13$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$298.07 | 399 | 53.6%214 W · 185 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3453…8524backed Boston Red Sox | 37c | 473.11$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$298.06 | 390 | 51.5%201 W · 189 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 20c | 314.16$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.6 | 143 | 28.7%41 W · 102 L | -11.9wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ee…9e81backed Toronto Blue Jays | 20c | 300$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 133 | 45.9%61 W · 72 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Toronto Blue Jays | 4c | 293$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.72 | 707 | 37.6%266 W · 441 L | +24.5wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84db…aeebbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 63c | 197.74$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.58 | 260 | 56.5%147 W · 113 L | +13.1wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Toronto Blue Jays | 40c | 164.8$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.36 | 1,819 | 49.3%896 W · 923 L | -24.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6e…f544backed Boston Red Sox | 64c | 150.23$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.79 | 341 | 39.9%136 W · 205 L | -8.7wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d1d…f2dfbacked Boston Red Sox | 55c | 143.68$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.36 | 149 | 43.6%65 W · 84 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Boston Red Sox | 67c | 134.09$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.25 | 6,123 | 55.4%3,390 W · 2,733 L | +346.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd774…e11fbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 65c | 100$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Toronto Blue Jays | 63c | 98.29$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.92 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Toronto Blue Jays | 33c | 89.04$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.82 | 5,149 | 54.7%2,815 W · 2,334 L | +231.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4318…9a94backed Toronto Blue Jays | 18c | 80.94$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.79 | 94 | 43.6%41 W · 53 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xecdb…c4c7backed Toronto Blue Jays | 64c | 76.48$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.95 | 291 | 41.6%121 W · 170 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked Boston Red Sox | 55c | 70.91$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.91 | 484 | 45.9%222 W · 262 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 44c | 70.19$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.81 | 2,093 | 51.1%1,070 W · 1,023 L | +44.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Toronto Blue Jays | 46c | 67.32$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.94 | 1,855 | 44%817 W · 1,038 L | -31.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Boston Red Sox | 43c | 64.82$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.95 | 1,797 | 50.4%906 W · 891 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Boston Red Sox | 68c | 64.76$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.72 | 2,588 | 61.5%1,591 W · 997 L | +72.3wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c49…1862backed Toronto Blue Jays | 64c | 62.02$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 353 | 53.8%190 W · 163 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad99…dbabbacked Boston Red Sox | 36c | 52.82$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.8 | 130 | 48.5%63 W · 67 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6676…22f3backed Toronto Blue Jays | 65c | 46.15$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 529 | 47.4%251 W · 278 L | -24.8wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Toronto Blue Jays | 55c | 44.25$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.34 | 1,737 | 49.1%852 W · 885 L | +7.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 64c | 41.11$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.31 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Toronto Blue Jays | 39c | 35.56$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.85 | 2,044 | 39.5%808 W · 1,236 L | -24.6wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Toronto Blue Jays | 61c | 32.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.12 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x847e…cc57backed Boston Red Sox | 44c | 32$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.92 | 135 | 54.8%74 W · 61 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Toronto Blue Jays | 64c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 838 | 54.7%458 W · 380 L | +29.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2792…c4f6backed Toronto Blue Jays | 67c | 29.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 739 | 49.8%368 W · 371 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6383…6e28backed Toronto Blue Jays | 67c | 29.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 795 | 55.6%442 W · 353 L | +21.1wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Boston Red Sox | 70c | 28.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.63 | 733 | 55.3%405 W · 328 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e4b…0a04backed Toronto Blue Jays | 62c | 26.42$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.38 | 175 | 50.3%88 W · 87 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed Toronto Blue Jays | 67c | 26.42$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.67 | 1,379 | 50.6%698 W · 681 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56cc…d589backed Toronto Blue Jays | 61c | 25.85$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.77 | 1,278 | 57%728 W · 550 L | +33.3wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ed5…3320backed Toronto Blue Jays | 46c | 24.26$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 65c | 21.54$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 899 | 50.6%455 W · 444 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Toronto Blue Jays | 64c | 19.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 2,413 | 49.9%1,205 W · 1,208 L | +22.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2077…8161backed Toronto Blue Jays | 64c | 15.93$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 343 | 55.4%190 W · 153 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)this page
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-2.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-3.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red SoxBoston Red Sox won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 6.5Over won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 7.5Over won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5Over won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5Over won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red SoxYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.