MLB · resolved market
Milwaukee Brewers vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc2fcadbab5bf4bd61093bfee3416cdd4ab6835d25e57e1929d50ed16df9ba2be
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,182
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,211
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,182 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa710…23c4backed Over | 44c | 1,068$470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$469.79 | 550 | 53.1%292 W · 258 L | +20.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Under | 56c | 1,000$560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$440 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Over | 43c | 500$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 57c | 475.23$271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.35 | 11,356 | 52.9%6,002 W · 5,354 L | +209.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fb…ee11backed Under | 55c | 330.64$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.79 | 655 | 49.3%323 W · 332 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Over | 37c | 228.68$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.92 | 6,302 | 48.3%3,041 W · 3,261 L | +181.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 66c | 208.95$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.73 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Over | 43c | 207.86$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.2 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 60c | 186.93$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.95 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 60c | 175.06$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.37 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Over | 45c | 169.78$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.4 | 1,043 | 49%511 W · 532 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84bb…25d3backed Over | 39c | 165.93$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.71 | 128 | 46.1%59 W · 69 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed Under | 66c | 161$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.84 | 1,522 | 34.7%528 W · 994 L | +27.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked Over | 45c | 111.11$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 652 | 48.3%315 W · 337 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Under | 59c | 109.99$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.1 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Under | 55c | 99.98$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.99 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd100…853dbacked Over | 45c | 85.02$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.26 | 541 | 52.1%282 W · 259 L | +12.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Over | 34c | 75$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Over | 34c | 71$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.14 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 44c | 59$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.96 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Under | 58c | 55$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.12 | 825 | 51.6%426 W · 399 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Under | 56c | 54$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.76 | 1,053 | 47.3%498 W · 555 L | -14.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 42c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 5,126 | 54.7%2,804 W · 2,322 L | +231.6wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe9cd…1e2bbacked Under | 57c | 23.54$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.12 | 1,057 | 50.2%531 W · 526 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7479…e171backed Under | 57c | 19.53$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 169 | 47.3%80 W · 89 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 9.5this page
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. St. Louis CardinalsSt. Louis Cardinals won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 6.5Over won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 7.5Over won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 8.5Over won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-3.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Milwaukee Brewers vs. St. Louis CardinalsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.