Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 64-65°F on May 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc3053a687af0feecd38a26c83582450d9e5d0bc46d7b086107b07cae0fa57f03
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,090
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,573
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,090 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3e28…4983backed Yes | 21c | 820.93$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$649.53 | 336 | 54.2%182 W · 154 L | -9.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 21c | 309.45$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.87 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 31c | 281.54$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.52 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2b…bf2abacked Yes | 58c | 238.27$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.79 | 62 | 64.5%40 W · 22 L | +5.0wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 64c | 211.41$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.24 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 75c | 193.25$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.98 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 46c | 182.43$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.6 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 38c | 181.03$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.14 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 28c | 178.66$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.12 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 27c | 173.14$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.64 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 72c | 152.32$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.26 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf57d…f322backed Yes | 15c | 151.83$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.72 | 255 | 19.2%49 W · 206 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf787…1b63backed Yes | 55c | 147.04$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.86 | 432 | 38%164 W · 268 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 13c | 140.73$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.6 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 43c | 127.67$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.11 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 54c | 126.63$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.75 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 75c | 119.31$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.72 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd43e…3604backed No | 41c | 118.97$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.96 | 515 | 53.6%276 W · 239 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8302…8b44backed Yes | 35c | 115.61$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.61 | 117 | 37.6%44 W · 73 L | -8.8wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfba1…2769backed Yes | 29c | 105.1$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.1 | 106 | 40.6%43 W · 63 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40eb…ade9backed Yes | 34c | 105$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.8 | 495 | 47.1%233 W · 262 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 77c | 102.36$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.04 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed No | 79c | 98.88$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.74 | 421 | 60.6%255 W · 166 L | -25.0wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3646…ba5abacked Yes | 43c | 95.3$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.74 | 407 | 41.3%168 W · 239 L | +32.5wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 78c | 91.01$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.54 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 47c | 90$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.56 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 23c | 87.58$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.58 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 25c | 83.7$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.89 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3942…39d7backed No | 17c | 77.21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.13 | 297 | 17.2%51 W · 246 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 30c | 74.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.59 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb4…b9edbacked Yes | 48c | 71.08$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.64 | 421 | 30.4%128 W · 293 L | +19.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce05…ff90backed No | 41c | 67.9$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.53 | 240 | 53.3%128 W · 112 L | -9.5wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c35…4801backed No | 70c | 63.73$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.5 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 65cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 18c | 63.6$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 40c | 60.8$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.3 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed Yes | 63c | 53.95$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.71 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7747…fe40backed No | 63c | 53.49$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.49 | 65 | 60%39 W · 26 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32e0…3884backed Yes | 21c | 51.38$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.34 | 110 | 25.5%28 W · 82 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cff…e0b6backed Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 202 | 30.2%61 W · 141 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 76c | 49.39$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.53 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67f4…df0fbacked No | 71c | 49.3$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 102 | 65.7%67 W · 35 L | -6.0wins | -0.06per pick | 72cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0832…8681backed Yes | 72c | 42$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.62 | 346 | 51.2%177 W · 169 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbaa…88a2backed Yes | 25c | 41.03$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.93 | 67 | 31.3%21 W · 46 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 80c | 41$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.8 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 77c | 40$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.64 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0da…4162backed Yes | 30c | 37.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.6 | 149 | 53.7%80 W · 69 L | +9.2wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa817…95d7backed Yes | 53c | 37.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.68 | 169 | 34.9%59 W · 110 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 45c | 34.47$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.67 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked No | 69c | 33.23$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.94 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 63c | 31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.53 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f37…1410backed No | 67c | 30.68$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 849 | 30.6%260 W · 589 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +28%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 73c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.9 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 51c | 28.27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.29 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 79c | 27.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.12 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc036…2b99backed No | 76c | 26.31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 56 | 64.3%36 W · 20 L | -3.7wins | -0.07per pick | 71cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed Yes | 63c | 25.65$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.58 | 711 | 59.2%421 W · 290 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 52c | 25.55$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.23 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x587c…603fbacked No | 80c | 23.95$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.07 | 56 | 71.4%40 W · 16 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 67cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e5e…5441backed No | 70c | 22.44$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.82 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -4.2wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8c6d…c4a3backed Yes | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No | 66c | 19$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.54 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 77c | 19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.72 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0eb…9b18backed No | 80c | 18.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 42 | 73.8%31 W · 11 L | +3.1wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 72c | 18.49$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.31 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f5d…3384backed No | 76c | 18.06$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.66 | 282 | 70.2%198 W · 84 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6837…1108backed No | 68c | 17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.56 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +44.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 62c | 16.67$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.33 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53bc…be7cbacked No | 72c | 16.22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.68 | 627 | 70.5%442 W · 185 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 79c | 15.52$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.23 | 659 | 65.4%431 W · 228 L | -12.7wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb060…9572backed No | 79c | 13$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.27 | 97 | 50.5%49 W · 48 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 64-65°F on May 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 47°F or below on May 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 66°F or higher on May 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 52-53°F on May 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 60-61°F on May 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 62-63°F on May 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.