Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 66°F or higher on May 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb1f90f6b33b56444a7fbabd51caa8ba70e6a7e62dad4bfdb2db5bdef98b4105a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,225
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,771
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,225 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 44c | 347.74$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.03 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41aa…9e8cbacked Yes | 6c | 323.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.28 | 607 | 3.3%20 W · 587 L | -19.0wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf0c…c7f6backed Yes | 8c | 285.6$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 104 | 43.3%45 W · 59 L | +8.9wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 67c | 277$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.42 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 20c | 272.75$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.74 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 38c | 265.39$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.31 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x828b…87a6backed Yes | 15c | 249.97$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 74 | 41.9%31 W · 43 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8866…7fc8backed No | 31c | 243.33$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.22 | 43 | 18.6%8 W · 35 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +201.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…20e0backed No | 16c | 233.9$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.53 | 637 | 57.6%367 W · 270 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07d6…64fbbacked Yes | 71c | 219.07$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.66 | 210 | 68.6%144 W · 66 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 60c | 200.84$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.47 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed No | 69c | 189.4$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.54 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 68c | 174$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.36 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked No | 66c | 144.19$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.42 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 27c | 137.63$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.09 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 51c | 130.6$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.63 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 56c | 128.67$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.01 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 49c | 113.36$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.05 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked Yes | 62c | 100.99$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.2 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed Yes | 63c | 100.86$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.89 | 421 | 60.6%255 W · 166 L | -25.0wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x58e6…9ac7backed No | 32c | 100$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68 | 197 | 53.8%106 W · 91 L | -12.7wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x23d8…f6b9backed No | 63c | 99.96$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.99 | 251 | 75.7%190 W · 61 L | +24.7wins | +0.10per pick | 66cpaid | +14%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked Yes | 66c | 91.87$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.84 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed Yes | 69c | 90.94$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.48 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed No | 39c | 88.7$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.31 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x831a…ad82backed Yes | 21c | 79.55$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.79 | 196 | 48.5%95 W · 101 L | +9.9wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2632…6475backed Yes | 19c | 76.84$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.91 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd43e…3604backed Yes | 64c | 69.63$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.52 | 515 | 53.6%276 W · 239 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…5de4backed Yes | 75c | 68.73$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.66 | 659 | 34.1%225 W · 434 L | +36.6wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeaff…5f75backed No | 28c | 65.68$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.25 | 70 | 47.1%33 W · 37 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbdc9…6dfdbacked No | 21c | 63.94$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.57 | 205 | 74.6%153 W · 52 L | +7.5wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked Yes | 36c | 62.95$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.86 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fbc…4105backed Yes | 78c | 60$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.52 | 337 | 26.4%89 W · 248 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09e7…1fffbacked No | 33c | 57.32$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.25 | 94 | 39.4%37 W · 57 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7747…fe40backed No | 37c | 55.66$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.21 | 65 | 60%39 W · 26 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 58c | 49.39$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.84 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked Yes | 60c | 49.1$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.4 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc018…b251backed No | 26c | 48.83$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.28 | 111 | 38.7%43 W · 68 L | +9.2wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x53a9…1e17backed No | 32c | 47.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.61 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.65per pick | 35cpaid | +185.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9fd…1902backed Yes | 29c | 45.14$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.27 | 112 | 57.1%64 W · 48 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f42…cd3cbacked No | 69c | 42.84$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.38 | 128 | 51.6%66 W · 62 L | -13.1wins | -0.10per pick | 62cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3237…5658backed Yes | 39c | 41.36$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.21 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dc4…1fd8backed Yes | 78c | 40$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.3 | 203 | 58.6%119 W · 84 L | +9.7wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1066…bd45backed No | 31c | 39$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.95 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.25per pick | 41cpaid | +67.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cff…e0b6backed Yes | 31c | 38$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.78 | 202 | 30.2%61 W · 141 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed Yes | 53c | 37$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.54 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b4b…1f63backed Yes | 32c | 36.58$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41fa…7cc4backed Yes | 46c | 35.93$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.61 | 792 | 55.2%437 W · 355 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 58c | 34.47$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.52 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce05…ff90backed Yes | 72c | 33.12$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.75 | 240 | 53.3%128 W · 112 L | -9.5wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf9a…e559backed Yes | 35c | 32.4$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 63c | 31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.47 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95bb…fae8backed Yes | 79c | 30$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.58 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 37c | 29.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26b6…94b8backed Yes | 68c | 29.53$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 61 | 31.1%19 W · 42 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed Yes | 61c | 28.94$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.56 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 51c | 28.27$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x26c4…7cccbacked No | 53c | 26.79$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.65 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.15per pick | 57cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 52c | 26.51$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.71 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fd…5c4fbacked Yes | 79c | 25.08$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 147 | 45.6%67 W · 80 L | -11.2wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd78c…a66ebacked No | 69c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.75 | 728 | 37.8%275 W · 453 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2b…bf2abacked No | 55c | 24$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 62 | 64.5%40 W · 22 L | +5.0wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked Yes | 72c | 23.42$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.94 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xe681…19f8backed No | 63c | 22$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.24 | 34 | 64.7%22 W · 12 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8dc…2222backed No | 69c | 21.54$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.63 | 59 | 66.1%39 W · 20 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdba1…8239backed Yes | 76c | 21.37$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.3 | 128 | 53.9%69 W · 59 L | +10.0wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 71c | 21.11$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb51…329bbacked Yes | 59c | 20.55$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.06 | 64 | 26.6%17 W · 47 L | -3.8wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3f…f038backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 661 | 41.8%276 W · 385 L | -12.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…7401backed No | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bd5…4390backed Yes | 79c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 66 | 60.6%40 W · 26 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x823a…61abbacked No | 65c | 17.6$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.24 | 78 | 69.2%54 W · 24 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53bc…be7cbacked Yes | 66c | 17.39$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.48 | 627 | 70.5%442 W · 185 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3066…1e7bbacked Yes | 68c | 16.92$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 92 | 70.7%65 W · 27 L | +10.7wins | +0.12per pick | 59cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb040…ef71backed No | 65c | 15.77$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.55 | 113 | 62.8%71 W · 42 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf910…5912backed Yes | 67c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 45 | 71.1%32 W · 13 L | +5.1wins | +0.11per pick | 60cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x55f6…b059backed Yes | 70c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 66°F or higher on May 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 47°F or below on May 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 52-53°F on May 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 60-61°F on May 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 62-63°F on May 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 64-65°F on May 22?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.