MLB · resolved market
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc32c94b487de10f47b7f60a4d40f5ead575052e5304829b69110a7e8dc7f1682
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Washington Nationalsof Milwaukee Brewers, Washington Nationals
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,374
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,087
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,374 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Washington Nationals | 63c | 1,369$867 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$501.53 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Milwaukee Brewers | 42c | 1,024$430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$430 | 1,173 | 29%340 W · 833 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Washington Nationals | 55c | 997.4$549 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$448.83 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b97…6084backed Milwaukee Brewers | 45c | 800$356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$356 | 591 | 50.3%297 W · 294 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 45c | 634.96$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.73 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9e7…0febbacked Washington Nationals | 55c | 575.16$319 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.64 | 78 | 51.3%40 W · 38 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Milwaukee Brewers | 6c | 410$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.52 | 781 | 46.4%362 W · 419 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc278…a116backed Milwaukee Brewers | 8c | 287.45$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.65 | 841 | 40.2%338 W · 503 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe649…4e37backed Milwaukee Brewers | 44c | 227.27$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 569 | 46.9%267 W · 302 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8508…c22fbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 45c | 224.17$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,000 | 52.4%524 W · 476 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Washington Nationals | 55c | 130$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.5 | 1,001 | 48.3%483 W · 518 L | -15.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Washington Nationals | 56c | 117.43$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.67 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f50…069bbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 44c | 103.41$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 163 | 45.4%74 W · 89 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ed2…0ddabacked Washington Nationals | 56c | 100$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 577 | 47.7%275 W · 302 L | +7.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe22a…cb75backed Milwaukee Brewers | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 269 | 48.7%131 W · 138 L | -9.2wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Washington Nationals | 56c | 94.16$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.43 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8adc…ceafbacked Washington Nationals | 56c | 89.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.29 | 226 | 53.1%120 W · 106 L | -9.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x96b0…b331backed Washington Nationals | 57c | 70.18$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.18 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 31c | 60.55$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.48 | 1,269 | 47.4%602 W · 667 L | -31.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Washington Nationals | 56c | 59.99$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.39 | 1,753 | 50.8%890 W · 863 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5f5…bb11backed Milwaukee Brewers | 43c | 52.18$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.49 | 559 | 53.1%297 W · 262 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Washington Nationals | 78c | 46$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.15 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3ff…ec82backed Milwaukee Brewers | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 215 | 54.9%118 W · 97 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5a…59b9backed Milwaukee Brewers | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 89 | 43.8%39 W · 50 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +10%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15ee…512dbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 44c | 45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 213 | 53.5%114 W · 99 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Washington Nationals | 56c | 32.05$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.2 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e5b…bb9abacked Washington Nationals | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.27 | 143 | 58.7%84 W · 59 L | +7.7wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb684…343cbacked Washington Nationals | 56c | 26.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.56 | 143 | 53.1%76 W · 67 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Milwaukee Brewers | 45c | 26.1$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6d…2671backed Milwaukee Brewers | 42c | 25.64$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.77 | 383 | 52.2%200 W · 183 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Milwaukee Brewers | 50c | 21.12$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.54 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5)this page
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Washington NationalsWashington Nationals won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 4.5Over won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 6.5Under won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.