MLB · resolved market
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1f3e1f1eaa1e2cac359ff84bc9772b3ec17ec85401fb6974cce9ae0b00efa79a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,552
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,734
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,552 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Under | 47c | 3,588$1,696 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,891.44 | 1,358 | 50.8%690 W · 668 L | +13.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Over | 53c | 3,000$1,590 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,590 | 1,078 | 48.1%518 W · 560 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27f7…44b0backed Under | 49c | 2,991$1,466 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,525.41 | 925 | 54.1%500 W · 425 L | +23.5wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58b9…ee8bbacked Over | 52c | 2,000$1,040 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,039.99 | 752 | 48.8%367 W · 385 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 49c | 1,668$814 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$854.37 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf009…43d0backed Over | 52c | 1,154$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 110 | 51.8%57 W · 53 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Under | 47c | 1,000$470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$530 | 1,586 | 48.5%770 W · 816 L | -2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb27…b180backed Over | 53c | 1,000$530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$530 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -3.9wins | -0.21per pick | 52cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8314…0f1ebacked Over | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 96 | 55.2%53 W · 43 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Under | 48c | 940.97$452 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$489.3 | 672 | 50.1%337 W · 335 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Under | 50c | 609.69$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$304.84 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 58c | 410$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.2 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4379…2e16backed Under | 49c | 398.12$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.04 | 779 | 51.1%398 W · 381 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5784…6788backed Over | 51c | 394.12$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe94c…1edebacked Under | 49c | 344.31$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.6 | 124 | 49.2%61 W · 63 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…8f79backed Under | 47c | 319.14$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.14 | 399 | 48.1%192 W · 207 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b97…6084backed Over | 50c | 300$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 591 | 50.3%297 W · 294 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 48c | 291.25$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.8 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Under | 48c | 246.62$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.3 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd38…99d4backed Over | 53c | 200$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 267 | 59.2%158 W · 109 L | +17.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe22a…cb75backed Over | 54c | 200$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 269 | 48.7%131 W · 138 L | -9.2wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Over | 52c | 195$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.4 | 1,445 | 50%723 W · 722 L | +26.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 28c | 193.09$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.76 | 5,149 | 54.7%2,815 W · 2,334 L | +231.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ce8…fc49backed Under | 49c | 153.06$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.06 | 59 | 49.2%29 W · 30 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28e8…6080backed Under | 46c | 141.62$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.13 | 481 | 50.7%244 W · 237 L | +8.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc10d…e679backed Under | 49c | 94.12$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c97…82adbacked Over | 50c | 94.06$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 68 | 42.6%29 W · 39 L | -6.0wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Under | 47c | 78.68$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.7 | 1,845 | 50.7%936 W · 909 L | -4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…c311backed Over | 53c | 64.26$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 361 | 57.9%209 W · 152 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1950…1bf4backed Under | 49c | 60.73$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.97 | 301 | 55.1%166 W · 135 L | +11.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Under | 47c | 60$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.8 | 1,053 | 47.3%498 W · 555 L | -14.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Under | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 722 | 47.6%344 W · 378 L | -12.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0954…012abacked Over | 54c | 55.56$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1,197 | 53.9%645 W · 552 L | +42.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Under | 47c | 55.07$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.18 | 1,284 | 49.5%635 W · 649 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87b8…9c13backed Over | 48c | 55$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5f5…bb11backed Over | 53c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 559 | 53.1%297 W · 262 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 56c | 48$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.92 | 1,728 | 50.4%871 W · 857 L | +57.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15ee…512dbacked Under | 49c | 41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.91 | 213 | 53.5%114 W · 99 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6762…a9a5backed Under | 56c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 268 | 53.4%143 W · 125 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Under | 48c | 33.53$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 1,001 | 48.3%483 W · 518 L | -15.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e5b…bb9abacked Under | 48c | 31.25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.25 | 143 | 58.7%84 W · 59 L | +7.7wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Under | 57c | 30.21$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.01 | 1,269 | 47.4%602 W · 667 L | -31.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 56c | 29.74$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.11 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb684…343cbacked Over | 53c | 28.03$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.86 | 143 | 53.1%76 W · 67 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Under | 52c | 25.16$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.08 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed Under | 47c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.25 | 802 | 55%441 W · 361 L | +24.2wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…9e07backed Under | 47c | 22.98$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.18 | 676 | 53.1%359 W · 317 L | +29.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1572…cb78backed Over | 52c | 20.96$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 51c | 20.4$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 2,995 | 47.9%1,435 W · 1,560 L | +12.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Under | 60c | 20.13$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 8.5this page
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Washington NationalsWashington Nationals won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 4.5Over won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 6.5Under won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.