Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 14°C on March 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc32e9a66c6c1beb2dd2f990725bec2bee6d6961524f9a0652306a09119c36074
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,164
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,164 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x09a8…47c1backed Yes | 77c | 1,763$1,366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,366.23 | 418 | 45.2%189 W · 229 L | +14.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x579a…9908backed No | 19c | 581.02$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$468.82 | 121 | 54.5%66 W · 55 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 21c | 313.64$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.61 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed No | 23c | 300.77$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.46 | 523 | 22.6%118 W · 405 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 62c | 232.56$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.79 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 32c | 227.07$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.64 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 31c | 221.76$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.56 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 60c | 207.03$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.95 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 22c | 197.92$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.7 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 59c | 195.82$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.85 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 26c | 168.17$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.06 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 57c | 162$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.94 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa321…56cabacked Yes | 59c | 161.58$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.21 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 58c | 156.84$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.48 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47af…3999backed No | 65c | 146.01$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.4 | 326 | 52.1%170 W · 156 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed No | 44c | 131.56$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.7 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4fd9…61f0backed No | 31c | 124$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.69per pick | 31cpaid | +222.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 67c | 114.2$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.46 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bda…439fbacked No | 24c | 108.37$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.86 | 594 | 40.6%241 W · 353 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked No | 22c | 103.1$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.78 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb425…b2c9backed Yes | 79c | 101.29$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac16…4f44backed No | 19c | 100.18$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.15 | 230 | 35.7%82 W · 148 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1879…b287backed No | 19c | 99.36$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.31 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d4…c1b8backed Yes | 80c | 98.53$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.41 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.29per pick | 49cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 20c | 91.83$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.46 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32f0…c659backed No | 22c | 90.98$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.97 | 235 | 47.7%112 W · 123 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4df8…4005backed No | 73c | 89.12$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.66 | 108 | 41.7%45 W · 63 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6160…fdfcbacked No | 18c | 76.19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.26 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +5.3wins | +0.15per pick | 39cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes | 72c | 75.26$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.15 | 576 | 59%340 W · 236 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7515…0f90backed No | 23c | 72.48$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.76 | 159 | 54.7%87 W · 72 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 68c | 71.24$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.14 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 36c | 70$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.7 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 56c | 68.94$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.54 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x2a04…b254backed Yes | 32c | 66$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.4 | 598 | 18.4%110 W · 488 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29e9…25d3backed Yes | 78c | 64.1$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedd0…8b94backed No | 26c | 62$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.89 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 34c | 59.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.75 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3b86…4670backed Yes | 69c | 57$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.33 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce1…c33abacked No | 20c | 55.46$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.09 | 149 | 61.1%91 W · 58 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd277…9304backed Yes | 55c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x59d4…b745backed No | 21c | 50$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.5 | 275 | 40%110 W · 165 L | -10.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6316…7488backed Yes | 67c | 49.98$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.48 | 153 | 34%52 W · 101 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8267…f7b7backed No | 21c | 47.62$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.62 | 116 | 56.9%66 W · 50 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e3e…522abacked No | 44c | 45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 102 | 37.3%38 W · 64 L | -5.2wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e55…9a76backed Yes | 33c | 45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.9 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93a4…b7a3backed Yes | 66c | 43.17$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.68 | 66 | 25.8%17 W · 49 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe11d…44ecbacked Yes | 48c | 42.1$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.21 | 180 | 41.7%75 W · 105 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 33c | 41.75$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.96 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 41c | 40.5$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.71 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 32c | 39.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2318…bbbfbacked Yes | 75c | 39.74$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 42c | 36.51$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.17 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca5…32bebacked Yes | 35c | 35.37$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.31 | 58 | 41.4%24 W · 34 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 63c | 30.19$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.88 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74f6…6ba1backed Yes | 69c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 63 | 52.4%33 W · 30 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa9…a6c9backed Yes | 77c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 43 | 62.8%27 W · 16 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 62c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc980…4e72backed Yes | 38c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | -6.1wins | -0.12per pick | 63cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5652…2aa5backed Yes | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 161 | 57.1%92 W · 69 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 63c | 25.21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x025e…433bbacked Yes | 69c | 24.1$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.63 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9e0a…28f5backed No | 67c | 23.54$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.77 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x919d…d88cbacked Yes | 65c | 22.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 145 | 44.8%65 W · 80 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed Yes | 67c | 21.27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0b36…c0e7backed Yes | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.05 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +2.2wins | +0.13per pick | 64cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4be0…c37dbacked No | 69c | 18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.58 | 190 | 58.9%112 W · 78 L | -8.2wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0e58…732bbacked Yes | 69c | 17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fd8…9372backed Yes | 69c | 16.04$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf09…3b16backed Yes | 69c | 16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -35%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb957…b8acbacked Yes | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 61cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80e1…47a8backed Yes | 77c | 15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.61 | 242 | 62.4%151 W · 91 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0100…b710backed No | 69c | 14.6$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.58 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13f3…d427backed Yes | 78c | 12.9$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.06 | 326 | 69%225 W · 101 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 14°C on March 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 11°C on March 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 12°C on March 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 13°C on March 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 15°C on March 23?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 16°C on March 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on March 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on March 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on March 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.