Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 15°C on March 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd4fbfe28c0a237a1d572dd930c3ecf3a470ff7d0a6dc6c99df08c564151c60e4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $43,361
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $43,361 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbc4c…444cbacked No | 0c | 3,922$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.08 | 44 | 29.5%13 W · 31 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5012…9a5cbacked No | 1c | 1,609$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.62 | 69 | 34.8%24 W · 45 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc298…250dbacked Yes | 24c | 416.63$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$316.63 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked No | 4c | 388.33$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.18 | 368 | 19.6%72 W · 296 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe262…4097backed Yes | 11c | 350$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312.5 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.21per pick | 38cpaid | +55.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 10c | 290$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 15c | 233.97$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.07 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 29c | 232.79$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.62 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 49c | 230.75$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.47 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 16c | 208.67$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.27 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 78c | 200.14$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.98 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e3e…522abacked No | 10c | 199.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 102 | 37.3%38 W · 64 L | -5.2wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 56c | 177.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.58 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 15c | 162$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.46 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1ce…ed4ebacked No | 9c | 147.49$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.47 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.18per pick | 55cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 37c | 147.12$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.61 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 18c | 128.37$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.79 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 9c | 115$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.5 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6160…fdfcbacked No | 12c | 114.29$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.46 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +5.3wins | +0.15per pick | 39cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdc1a…d0eebacked Yes | 17c | 114$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.62 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.77per pick | 23cpaid | +366.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 71c | 112$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.02 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43f2…09a5backed Yes | 28c | 110$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.2 | 81 | 24.7%20 W · 61 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes | 58c | 106.52$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.72 | 576 | 59%340 W · 236 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 34c | 105.39$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.76 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 30c | 99.11$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.92 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57b7…bfe9backed Yes | 21c | 87.3$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.22 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +46.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe10b…bdc7backed Yes | 16c | 86$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.84per pick | 16cpaid | +525%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 41c | 73.17$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.17 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a04…b254backed Yes | 25c | 71.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.99 | 598 | 18.4%110 W · 488 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7f4…5d3dbacked Yes | 70c | 71.44$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.42 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -3.0wins | -0.18per pick | 71cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 53c | 68.07$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.96 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe68c…779dbacked Yes | 76c | 64.05$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.59 | 48 | 43.8%21 W · 27 L | -5.5wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked No | 41c | 60.47$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.93 | 572 | 32.9%188 W · 384 L | -104.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 31-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 31c | 60$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.16 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 21c | 60$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6a2c…64f0backed Yes | 28c | 56.87$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.72 | 77 | 14.3%11 W · 66 L | -6.7wins | -0.09per pick | 23cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 68c | 51.61$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.44 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffb…119dbacked Yes | 70c | 50.92$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.29 | 430 | 21.9%94 W · 336 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd277…9304backed No | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x972f…635fbacked Yes | 66c | 47.13$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.93 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ae3…08a0backed Yes | 34c | 44.12$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.12 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc498…8ba5backed Yes | 37c | 32.85$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.85 | 424 | 38.9%165 W · 259 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d97…66f8backed Yes | 61c | 32.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.61 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0666…2efbbacked Yes | 31c | 31.8$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.8 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38c2…7ae0backed Yes | 55c | 30.69$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.69 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked No | 66c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcdfb…f641backed No | 79c | 25.6$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.25 | 91 | 64.8%59 W · 32 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 71cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed No | 70c | 25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.57 | 344 | 57%196 W · 148 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 75c | 24.97$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.73 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4df8…4005backed No | 75c | 22.78$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.17 | 108 | 41.7%45 W · 63 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 68c | 20.88$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.23 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 78c | 20.18$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.74 | 763 | 71.4%545 W · 218 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…33cebacked No | 71c | 16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.36 | 343 | 69.4%238 W · 105 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 68c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 15°C on March 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 11°C on March 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 12°C on March 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 13°C on March 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 14°C on March 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 16°C on March 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on March 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on March 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on March 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.