Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc32fee0b19de861d5ac975f503e983cde9967d9154ab42f8d91884fdd8cd59fc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,214
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,695
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,214 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1775…85b0backed Yes | 77c | 847.89$654 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.92 | 366 | 48.4%177 W · 189 L | +25.4wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 32c | 600$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$410.22 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8882…03fbbacked Yes | 37c | 461.16$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291.16 | 517 | 33.3%172 W · 345 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 23c | 369.12$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.12 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 65c | 295.7$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.46 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x438a…61c4backed Yes | 70c | 285.41$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.43 | 231 | 43.3%100 W · 131 L | +19.0wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfa8c…9169backed Yes | 74c | 201.89$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.93 | 402 | 65.9%265 W · 137 L | +31.7wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x80e1…47a8backed No | 50c | 201.48$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.84 | 242 | 62.4%151 W · 91 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 65c | 200.48$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.74 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 20c | 158.84$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.51 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed No | 66c | 148.37$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.56 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62fb…3df1backed No | 41c | 147.29$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.76 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.2wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 44c | 140.87$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.38 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 66c | 122.46$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.58 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x54a0…4134backed Yes | 41c | 122.2$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.2 | 148 | 23%34 W · 114 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -26%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 28c | 116.58$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.58 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4f0…6450backed No | 10c | 108$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.74 | 141 | 19.1%27 W · 114 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 67c | 104.8$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.03 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 57c | 103.84$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.69 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 68c | 100$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 61c | 93$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.3 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 47c | 90.76$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.22 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 73c | 89.75$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.36 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 76c | 85.86$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.36 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 61c | 85.18$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.2 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 45c | 85$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.48 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc243…5e94backed No | 76c | 83.04$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.3 | 260 | 67.3%175 W · 85 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2f…e889backed Yes | 75c | 80.94$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.99 | 228 | 49.6%113 W · 115 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f1c…ebffbacked Yes | 75c | 80.94$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.01 | 134 | 61.2%82 W · 52 L | +7.3wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2eb8…0d00backed Yes | 78c | 76.62$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.22 | 206 | 62.1%128 W · 78 L | -14.0wins | -0.07per pick | 69cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 26c | 75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.5 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 16c | 71.43$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x108a…8159backed Yes | 27c | 70.52$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.66 | 587 | 32.9%193 W · 394 L | +34.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes | 26c | 69.46$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.4 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 44c | 68.68$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 29c | 67.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.89 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5948…2d49backed No | 23c | 64.08$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 57 | 15.8%9 W · 48 L | -3.7wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -31%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 53c | 61.34$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.12 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 20c | 58.63$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.51 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x59d1…b527backed Yes | 27c | 57.91$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.01 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 65c | 55.78$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.68 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 44c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67f4…df0fbacked No | 74c | 47.3$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 102 | 65.7%67 W · 35 L | -6.0wins | -0.06per pick | 72cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea7…7450backed No | 68c | 45$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.52 | 417 | 60.4%252 W · 165 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9047…2959backed Yes | 45c | 44.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.3 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | +3.9wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 47c | 43.81$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.39 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc33a…cc98backed No | 72c | 41.59$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.95 | 54 | 68.5%37 W · 17 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 73c | 40.81$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06a3…fa45backed No | 74c | 40.54$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 156 | 60.9%95 W · 61 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f2a…3706backed No | 63c | 40.5$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.36 | 348 | 53.4%186 W · 162 L | -19.2wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 26c | 39.97$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.57 | 676 | 33.7%228 W · 448 L | +33.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 66c | 37.45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.72 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x958a…9f65backed No | 67c | 37.41$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.17 | 558 | 55.2%308 W · 250 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 71c | 32.5$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.06 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 57c | 31.34$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.86 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 57c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.18 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 44c | 26.85$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.83 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xbb35…0988backed No | 63c | 26.2$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.51 | 64 | 56.3%36 W · 28 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb07c…6c36backed Yes | 68c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.95 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53bc…be7cbacked No | 79c | 22.22$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.65 | 627 | 70.5%442 W · 185 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 60c | 22.05$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.23 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab9…8ba6backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 304 | 42.8%130 W · 174 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 77c | 19.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.05 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb338…7a24backed No | 75c | 18.44$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.77 | 58 | 69%40 W · 18 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 71cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60d8…f2a6backed Yes | 75c | 18.26$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.61 | 378 | 35.4%134 W · 244 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd2d…0ef3backed Yes | 78c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.3 | 114 | 46.5%53 W · 61 L | -6.3wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on June 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on June 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.