Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on July 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc34266426018c9db403a094129eb83d3c1c4da7930e65190ecb6c47d26bb83b7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,548
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,831
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,548 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 36c | 508.7$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$324.26 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 34c | 427.02$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.12 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 6c | 426.84$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.85 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 10c | 395.37$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.98 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 27c | 272.6$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.44 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 58c | 272.14$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.41 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8847…262dbacked No | 5c | 234.27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.26 | 252 | 30.6%77 W · 175 L | +21.0wins | +0.08per pick | 22cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked No | 6c | 211.12$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 656 | 25.8%169 W · 487 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 52c | 200.45$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.98 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 50c | 195.97$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.5 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 12c | 181.33$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.12 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 49c | 151.26$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.97 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6394…485fbacked Yes | 47c | 138.78$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.33 | 42 | 38.1%16 W · 26 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 63c | 101.47$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.9 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93f7…c133backed Yes | 53c | 94.92$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.91 | 185 | 55.7%103 W · 82 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 63c | 92.56$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.16 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf71a…fa40backed Yes | 55c | 90$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.5 | 190 | 42.6%81 W · 109 L | -11.9wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 53c | 85.19$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.15 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5425…4c65backed No | 35c | 84$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.57 | 278 | 52.9%147 W · 131 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 54c | 81.95$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.3 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 57c | 68.49$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.96 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 15c | 67.8$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 49c | 66$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.22 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf21…e0c1backed No | 47c | 63.44$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 111 | 63.1%70 W · 41 L | +9.3wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +20%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 56c | 62.72$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.81 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd50c…3360backed Yes | 48c | 60.33$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.28 | 281 | 42%118 W · 163 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c30…b668backed Yes | 54c | 55.88$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.88 | 159 | 40.3%64 W · 95 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 54c | 55.03$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.76 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 55c | 54.55$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.55 | 612 | 49.5%303 W · 309 L | +30.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 45c | 54.55$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.55 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9314…db74backed No | 45c | 51.25$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.91 | 260 | 25%65 W · 195 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 38c | 50.27$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.07 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 53c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 49c | 44.46$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.62 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 52c | 43.18$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.45 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 65c | 41.52$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.37 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x94de…e3cabacked No | 49c | 40.7$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a78…f457backed No | 53c | 38.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.14per pick | 50cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 47c | 37.78$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.76 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6cd…eaecbacked Yes | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 146 | 60.3%88 W · 58 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf336…a233backed No | 45c | 37.5$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.7 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 50c | 37.05$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.64 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0f…085cbacked Yes | 67c | 33.02$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.02 | 616 | 76.3%470 W · 146 L | +92.4wins | +0.15per pick | 61cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x3311…d659backed No | 41c | 31.71$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 195 | 51.8%101 W · 94 L | -8.7wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 58c | 29.13$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.98 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 47c | 29$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.37 | 667 | 58%387 W · 280 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.85 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…7bf9backed Yes | 53c | 27.78$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.06 | 546 | 56.4%308 W · 238 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.27 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 50c | 26.13$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.02 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64ce…3c70backed No | 50c | 26.07$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -3.5wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x124e…f2dfbacked Yes | 46c | 26$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.04 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 49c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9d5…ce23backed No | 63c | 24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 150 | 62.7%94 W · 56 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa016…67c2backed No | 68c | 23.54$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 511 | 56.6%289 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 47c | 22.68$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.07 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea31…a889backed No | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 199 | 65.3%130 W · 69 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec52…59e8backed Yes | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee08…ca2ebacked No | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -4.2wins | -0.13per pick | 55cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb335…aac1backed Yes | 59c | 16.85$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.85 | 95 | 38.9%37 W · 58 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on July 29?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on July 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on July 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on July 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on July 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on July 29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.