Other European Leagues · resolved market
Will FC Porto win on 2025-10-05?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc380692c58b0158614683b8e7754121d60c95c5383b649c10326f794f1f8fd58
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Other European Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,030
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,161
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,030 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Other European Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2129…4222backed No | 51c | 4,364$2,234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,129.41 | 464 | 54.3%252 W · 212 L | +6.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b4…f05dbacked No | 51c | 3,086$1,563 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,522.77 | 65 | 47.7%31 W · 34 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9602…4d02backed No | 58c | 2,866$1,653 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,213.14 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 59cpaid | -1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d7…a70cbacked Yes | 44c | 2,296$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x877f…7acbbacked Yes | 50c | 1,500$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5839…c2b8backed Yes | 49c | 1,473$722 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$721.85 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +152.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 52c | 1,171$614 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$556.97 | 7,966 | 45.3%3,608 W · 4,358 L | +9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66e7…e316backed Yes | 49c | 997$493 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$493.03 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb315…d6c9backed Yes | 50c | 982$491 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$491 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +2.1wins | +0.12per pick | 44cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x47c6…be32backed Yes | 42c | 977.52$412 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$411.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf42a…8470backed Yes | 50c | 954.95$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$479.67 | 52 | 17.3%9 W · 43 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x332a…33babacked No | 50c | 845.1$423 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$422.55 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +161.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef5…39edbacked No | 50c | 706$353 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$353 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 26cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a86…5664backed Yes | 49c | 530.61$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +45.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed Yes | 49c | 510.2$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 125 | 30.4%38 W · 87 L | -7.0wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed No | 70c | 486.33$343 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.57 | 86 | 51.2%44 W · 42 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7292…6bd3backed No | 65c | 317.4$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.4 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf575…e0ebbacked Yes | 48c | 307.54$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.79 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8059…c043backed Yes | 50c | 294.1$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed No | 56c | 250.72$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03f7…c0ccbacked Yes | 35c | 250$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.5 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad28…770cbacked Yes | 43c | 245$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.6 | 73 | 41.1%30 W · 43 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6be7…8d02backed Yes | 47c | 234.45$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x663b…6a3ebacked Yes | 43c | 232.59$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -39%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d4f…df6fbacked Yes | 49c | 215.43$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd871…2ae4backed Yes | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13a0…e8b9backed Yes | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06da…3181backed Yes | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4dc4…306fbacked Yes | 26c | 200$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Yes | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 43 | 41.9%18 W · 25 L | -5.3wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x967d…ef6abacked Yes | 53c | 188.87$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.35per pick | 60cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7865…4af9backed No | 52c | 161.73$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.63 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb36…9545backed No | 51c | 157.55$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.2 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.9wins | +0.19per pick | 51cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4a42…2a7ebacked Yes | 49c | 152.08$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | +4.4wins | +0.11per pick | 34cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf6…513abacked No | 51c | 149.98$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.49 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +2.6wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +16%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0cf3…2b57backed Yes | 38c | 105$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41e3…1962backed Yes | 50c | 104$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x346f…d488backed Yes | 37c | 103.09$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4afe…1390backed Yes | 48c | 101.31$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked No | 51c | 91.84$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 78 | 60.3%47 W · 31 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a7…5bddbacked Yes | 49c | 91.84$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x113f…95a6backed Yes | 23c | 86.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +3.5wins | +0.16per pick | 52cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa2a8…8466backed No | 52c | 86$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25f2…03e6backed Yes | 42c | 85.71$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3aa6…4979backed No | 55c | 82.22$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.22 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +82.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…3159backed Yes | 52c | 62.83$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc487…dc86backed Yes | 49c | 61.22$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 68cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdce3…79c7backed Yes | 33c | 60.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…7017backed Yes | 45c | 60.22$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.1 | 79 | 45.6%36 W · 43 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5422…6c3fbacked No | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 125 | 52%65 W · 60 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea16…f145backed Yes | 43c | 51.14$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd523…0aa4backed Yes | 43c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8fe…ba40backed Yes | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 73 | 53.4%39 W · 34 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb61b…1f96backed Yes | 41c | 48.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x601d…1778backed Yes | 41c | 47.37$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.42 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c80…6f38backed Yes | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.1wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4f37…0b78backed Yes | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.25per pick | 59cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f90…e43dbacked Yes | 49c | 42.02$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53e8…bf07backed Yes | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -2.3wins | -0.45per pick | 65cpaid | -74.4%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbc0f…18b4backed Yes | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a9f…f4afbacked Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0795…fcc0backed Yes | 46c | 38$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x881a…8d6dbacked Yes | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 37 | 70.3%26 W · 11 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 66cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf53e…e559backed Yes | 49c | 36.73$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5425…8b3abacked Yes | 41c | 27$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.06 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea37…94f3backed Yes | 48c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Yes | 46c | 22$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 495 | 28.7%142 W · 353 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1690…4bf8backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a54…e581backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will FC Porto win on 2025-10-05?this page
- Will FC Porto vs. Sport Lisboa e Benfica end in a draw?Yes won
- Will Sport Lisboa e Benfica win on 2025-10-05?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.