Tennis · resolved market
ITF M15 Tianjin 2 Men: Matthew Dellavedova vs Kosuke Ogura
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc3bbdbd4d3f7a14ade5817b48ac6a506b6661fe7c5f44259f1a12f0094d3cb55
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Kosuke Oguraof Matthew Dellavedova, Kosuke Ogura
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $83,408
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $91,949
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $83,408 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6982…a165backed Matthew Dellavedova | 37c | 13,196$4,898 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,897.74 | 629 | 56.9%358 W · 271 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x81f6…4488backed Kosuke Ogura | 52c | 7,657$4,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,657.41 | 57 | 49.1%28 W · 29 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83de…89c6backed Kosuke Ogura | 78c | 3,066$2,399 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$667.44 | 45 | 62.2%28 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7462…3ac3backed Kosuke Ogura | 57c | 3,058$1,753 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,305.05 | 1,672 | 50.1%837 W · 835 L | +30.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9dd…b525backed Matthew Dellavedova | 47c | 3,000$1,410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,409.99 | 248 | 44%109 W · 139 L | +11.9wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Kosuke Ogura | 41c | 2,907$1,202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,705.22 | 11,325 | 43.4%4,912 W · 6,413 L | +18.6wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Kosuke Ogura | 57c | 2,398$1,356 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,042.49 | 2,754 | 53.8%1,481 W · 1,273 L | +71.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Kosuke Ogura | 56c | 2,223$1,241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$982.64 | 3,621 | 45.3%1,641 W · 1,980 L | -3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Matthew Dellavedova | 49c | 2,209$1,078 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,078.32 | 8,152 | 45.3%3,695 W · 4,457 L | +155.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Kosuke Ogura | 69c | 1,703$1,168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$534.65 | 6,411 | 54.4%3,486 W · 2,925 L | +283.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9930…696ebacked Kosuke Ogura | 12c | 1,445$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,266.69 | 274 | 49.6%136 W · 138 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Matthew Dellavedova | 47c | 1,392$660 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$659.58 | 8,396 | 42.6%3,578 W · 4,818 L | -162.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Matthew Dellavedova | 50c | 1,286$640 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$640.03 | 4,584 | 48.3%2,215 W · 2,369 L | +35.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Matthew Dellavedova | 38c | 1,208$461 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460.95 | 6,419 | 46.4%2,978 W · 3,441 L | -39.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84b1…51b8backed Matthew Dellavedova | 32c | 1,174$376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$375.8 | 65 | 27.7%18 W · 47 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc1d7…47a4backed Kosuke Ogura | 21c | 797.61$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$630.68 | 1,011 | 41.4%419 W · 592 L | -23.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13f7…85d5backed Matthew Dellavedova | 43c | 576.19$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.43 | 1,252 | 38.8%486 W · 766 L | -23.0wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5803…3f3fbacked Kosuke Ogura | 4c | 524.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$504.66 | 792 | 49.1%389 W · 403 L | +35.5wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d60…453dbacked Matthew Dellavedova | 40c | 503.09$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 299 | 53.5%160 W · 139 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbc6…9092backed Kosuke Ogura | 11c | 454.55$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$404.55 | 365 | 21.6%79 W · 286 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x834d…0c31backed Kosuke Ogura | 28c | 450$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$324.45 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1621…572cbacked Kosuke Ogura | 10c | 444.41$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$398.91 | 472 | 52.1%246 W · 226 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Matthew Dellavedova | 30c | 428.07$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.68 | 5,377 | 48.7%2,617 W · 2,760 L | +16.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d12…ccc3backed Matthew Dellavedova | 74c | 398.97$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf095…58c6backed Matthew Dellavedova | 37c | 270.14$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 168 | 56%94 W · 74 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…986cbacked Kosuke Ogura | 49c | 240.12$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.45 | 634 | 47.9%304 W · 330 L | -10.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Kosuke Ogura | 14c | 227.32$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.39 | 2,821 | 39.5%1,113 W · 1,708 L | -82.7wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b24…11efbacked Matthew Dellavedova | 65c | 199.99$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.51 | 639 | 65.9%421 W · 218 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d5…573bbacked Kosuke Ogura | 31c | 174.69$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.69 | 89 | 42.7%38 W · 51 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4575…3a3fbacked Kosuke Ogura | 49c | 174.63$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.75 | 213 | 51.6%110 W · 103 L | -7.2wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c7d…423fbacked Kosuke Ogura | 22c | 168.52$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.45 | 135 | 45.2%61 W · 74 L | +8.2wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8195…6018backed Kosuke Ogura | 30c | 167.8$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.8 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7179…7d79backed Kosuke Ogura | 30c | 167.22$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.22 | 2,575 | 46.4%1,195 W · 1,380 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e91…391dbacked Kosuke Ogura | 55c | 166.53$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.53 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +2.5wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6240…54c0backed Kosuke Ogura | 33c | 155.99$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.9 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked Kosuke Ogura | 57c | 152.9$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.9 | 1,406 | 45.3%637 W · 769 L | +43.1wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Kosuke Ogura | 30c | 150.5$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.5 | 3,412 | 39.1%1,335 W · 2,077 L | -11.7wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc367…a0b4backed Matthew Dellavedova | 70c | 142.86$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 459 | 35.5%163 W · 296 L | -18.6wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd4b6…5858backed Matthew Dellavedova | 30c | 137.53$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 229 | 30.6%70 W · 159 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d10…780bbacked Kosuke Ogura | 10c | 132.76$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.48 | 1,013 | 53.8%545 W · 468 L | +35.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17ef…9a2cbacked Kosuke Ogura | 47c | 126.78$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.78 | 787 | 57.1%449 W · 338 L | +12.8wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f2…8c8dbacked Matthew Dellavedova | 51c | 125$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.88 | 1,657 | 44.2%733 W · 924 L | -22.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Kosuke Ogura | 12c | 124.43$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.11 | 1,013 | 36.5%370 W · 643 L | -17.2wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41b1…df57backed Kosuke Ogura | 17c | 117.65$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.65 | 155 | 31%48 W · 107 L | +12.5wins | +0.08per pick | 23cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1e…4754backed Kosuke Ogura | 41c | 105.25$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 433 | 45%195 W · 238 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa517…30a4backed Kosuke Ogura | 18c | 105.13$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.11 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed Kosuke Ogura | 23c | 100$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77 | 3,204 | 40.5%1,299 W · 1,905 L | +28.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb77…1c78backed Kosuke Ogura | 23c | 100$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77 | 2,142 | 37.3%799 W · 1,343 L | -27.4wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1367…9a3abacked Kosuke Ogura | 20c | 91.88$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.79 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb77…fbeebacked Kosuke Ogura | 69c | 85$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.6 | 232 | 51.7%120 W · 112 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…2c78backed Kosuke Ogura | 21c | 72.81$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.29 | 54 | 55.6%30 W · 24 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0fd9…039bbacked Kosuke Ogura | 30c | 66.89$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.89 | 1,001 | 38.4%384 W · 617 L | +8.7wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Matthew Dellavedova | 64c | 66.11$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.12 | 1,624 | 54.4%883 W · 741 L | +37.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x604e…2cb1backed Matthew Dellavedova | 32c | 66.01$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.42 | 104 | 25%26 W · 78 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88da…e801backed Matthew Dellavedova | 63c | 63.64$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 118 | 43.2%51 W · 67 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3459…caa6backed Kosuke Ogura | 30c | 60.2$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.2 | 267 | 48.7%130 W · 137 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x267c…5bfdbacked Kosuke Ogura | 44c | 52.61$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.34 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | +5.6wins | +0.13per pick | 43cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe07d…4ee1backed Kosuke Ogura | 69c | 51$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.96 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ad…5097backed Kosuke Ogura | 59c | 49$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.31 | 257 | 68.1%175 W · 82 L | +11.4wins | +0.04per pick | 64cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3ec3…e330backed Matthew Dellavedova | 54c | 48.78$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.33 | 427 | 47.8%204 W · 223 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb3e…b9c5backed Kosuke Ogura | 62c | 40.01$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.39 | 346 | 58.1%201 W · 145 L | +16.5wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f76…dcc9backed Matthew Dellavedova | 43c | 36.69$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.86 | 874 | 50.6%442 W · 432 L | +20.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2fa…070dbacked Matthew Dellavedova | 58c | 33.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.66 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb91c…ed66backed Matthew Dellavedova | 62c | 32.39$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.01 | 576 | 45.7%263 W · 313 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x737f…66e8backed Kosuke Ogura | 78c | 32.05$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.05 | 24 | 75%18 W · 6 L | +2.9wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xea88…261abacked Matthew Dellavedova | 61c | 31.37$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.1 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99f1…f02dbacked Kosuke Ogura | 69c | 29.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.31 | 64 | 48.4%31 W · 33 L | -4.3wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6e54…511ebacked Kosuke Ogura | 62c | 29.05$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.07 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ede…7437backed Matthew Dellavedova | 40c | 27$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76d2…99a6backed Kosuke Ogura | 59c | 26.04$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.7 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24ce…da46backed Kosuke Ogura | 69c | 17.02$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.33 | 397 | 47.9%190 W · 207 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5323…3ff8backed Matthew Dellavedova | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | -3.3wins | -0.10per pick | 66cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- ITF M15 Tianjin 2 Men: Matthew Dellavedova vs Kosuke Ogurathis page
- ITF M15 Tianjin 2 Men: Completed Match: Matthew Dellavedova vs Kosuke OguraYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.