MLB · resolved market
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc3d2f5084e153b421fcbb5fa591123d6ec254a328f0f9fab89bcfb76f5e31447
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Seattle Marinersof Toronto Blue Jays, Seattle Mariners
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,073
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,149
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,073 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Seattle Mariners | 63c | 18,290$11,525 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,764.2 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d0f…4faabacked Toronto Blue Jays | 37c | 18,120$6,704 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,704.48 | 302 | 55.6%168 W · 134 L | +14.5wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Seattle Mariners | 62c | 2,628$1,629 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$998.51 | 1,909 | 53.5%1,021 W · 888 L | +29.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c86…366bbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 37c | 1,000$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -2.5wins | -0.13per pick | 45cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe216…7448backed Toronto Blue Jays | 38c | 952.05$362 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$361.78 | 1,213 | 40.5%491 W · 722 L | -32.1wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d45…9054backed Seattle Mariners | 63c | 662.53$417 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.05 | 52 | 51.9%27 W · 25 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3088…ec44backed Seattle Mariners | 63c | 609$384 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.33 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Toronto Blue Jays | 36c | 358.49$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.06 | 784 | 45.3%355 W · 429 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x954b…eb22backed Seattle Mariners | 64c | 350$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126 | 68 | 47.1%32 W · 36 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xacad…bceabacked Toronto Blue Jays | 38c | 340.15$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.26 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d5e…7004backed Toronto Blue Jays | 38c | 300$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114 | 217 | 67.7%147 W · 70 L | +36.1wins | +0.17per pick | 51cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 36c | 295.22$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.28 | 1,151 | 49.2%566 W · 585 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e52…9434backed Toronto Blue Jays | 38c | 263.16$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.14per pick | 40cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf51…b232backed Toronto Blue Jays | 38c | 250$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 32cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab74…3996backed Toronto Blue Jays | 37c | 243.54$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.11 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c11…02c8backed Toronto Blue Jays | 38c | 166.76$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.37 | 89 | 44.9%40 W · 49 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1126…4e82backed Seattle Mariners | 70c | 149.57$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.59 | 600 | 52.2%313 W · 287 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b8…a6c2backed Toronto Blue Jays | 38c | 131.58$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5350…c52cbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 24c | 125$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +15%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…bcb3backed Toronto Blue Jays | 38c | 105.26$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 664 | 48.2%320 W · 344 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8e2…9710backed Seattle Mariners | 63c | 88$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.56 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb7…e33dbacked Seattle Mariners | 73c | 79.8$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.3 | 1,328 | 51.4%682 W · 646 L | +25.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa315…cabbbacked Seattle Mariners | 63c | 65$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.05 | 114 | 56.1%64 W · 50 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b11…0e49backed Toronto Blue Jays | 38c | 52.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.19per pick | 45cpaid | +40.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Toronto Blue Jays | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa582…8ec0backed Toronto Blue Jays | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 41 | 53.7%22 W · 19 L | +4.3wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbc02…958abacked Toronto Blue Jays | 37c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 59 | 35.6%21 W · 38 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -33%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x472c…a000backed Toronto Blue Jays | 39c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.15per pick | 54cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)this page
- Mariners vs. Blue JaysBlue Jays won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 7.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.