TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Seattle Mariners vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 7.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$243,073
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$250,908

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $243,073 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x7b35…53c5backed Over51c83,128$42,494 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42,494.0110%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe0ac…76ffbacked Over50c49,736$25,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25,0006847.1%32 W · 36 L-7.0wins-0.10per pick57cpaid-17.5%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x2129…4222backed Under49c47,598$23,381 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24,216.8678445.3%355 W · 429 L0.0wins0.00per pick45cpaid-7.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4488…e319backed Under50c40,000$19,816 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,184.551,06348.2%512 W · 551 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc9af…6371backed Over50c26,132$12,970 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,970.42045%9 W · 11 L-1.4wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-13.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xeb1e…88d5backed Under52c25,831$13,387 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,444.157058.6%41 W · 29 L+2.5wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7fb7…e33dbacked Under49c23,204$11,464 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,739.871,32851.4%682 W · 646 L+25.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa455…4ebabacked Over50c10,081$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,999.6610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4231…f63ebacked Under49c8,461$4,156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,304.9411551.3%59 W · 56 L+0.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Under50c6,937$3,478 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,459.191,15149.2%566 W · 585 L-0.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb077…8fe8backed Under52c5,884$3,060 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,824.3233554%181 W · 154 L+9.1wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8753…85adbacked Under51c5,140$2,641 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,499.21,90953.5%1,021 W · 888 L+29.1wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed Under50c5,000$2,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,5001,40248.8%684 W · 718 L-11.6wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Under50c4,405$2,196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,208.481,35549.8%675 W · 680 L+7.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xefc9…b337backed Under51c4,008$2,044 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,963.686350.8%32 W · 31 L+3.3wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+10.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf800…f62dbacked Under52c3,920$2,039 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,880.26357.1%36 W · 27 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+4.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x900c…1d7abacked Under51c3,878$1,973 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,904.953145.2%14 W · 17 L-2.2wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-16.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd6d5…1ccbbacked Over50c2,237$1,108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,108.093060%18 W · 12 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x699f…d5c6backed Over50c2,000$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00012641.3%52 W · 74 L-3.7wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-12.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa82b…5220backed Under51c2,000$1,020 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9807643.4%33 W · 43 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-3.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd1e0…8913backed Under51c1,637$835 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$802.257758.4%45 W · 32 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x30ef…70dfbacked Under49c1,400$686 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7143447.1%16 W · 18 L+2.1wins+0.06per pick41cpaid+34.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under48c1,079$515 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$563.5112,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa9d1…4660backed Under2c1,015$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$994.742123.8%5 W · 16 L+2.2wins+0.11per pick13cpaid+254.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x81f5…70afbacked Under51c1,000$510 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49016945%76 W · 93 L-2.9wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8351…9bebbacked Under52c770$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$369.665248.3%315 W · 337 L+1.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked Over58c719.21$418 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$418.141,38148.1%664 W · 717 L-13.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-13.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ee7…12c5backed Under60c564.46$338 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$226.631573.3%11 W · 4 L+2.9wins+0.19per pick54cpaid+41.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf5a7…63e7backed Over50c500$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2508852.3%46 W · 42 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3e9c…ab80backed Under52c500$260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$240757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8e9a…5b99backed Under63c423.06$266 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.221163.6%7 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick62cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x44c4…501bbacked Over50c400$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xce99…637ebacked Under52c343$178 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$164.648646.5%40 W · 46 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x56bb…8e6bbacked Under58c300$175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1254047.5%19 W · 21 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1498…a10bbacked Under52c292.3$151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.3250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcba6…bb05backed Under51c271.99$139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.9721044.8%94 W · 116 L-10.4wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-18.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd957…a584backed Over48c208.33$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001637.5%6 W · 10 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-20.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa8f3…e544backed Under50c200$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1001,43550%717 W · 718 L+25.8wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x61cd…541ebacked Under52c150.27$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.1314864.2%95 W · 53 L+4.0wins+0.03per pick61cpaid+4.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x30f9…fbfcbacked Over50c126.14$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.81450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+15.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7555…ce17backed Over49c122.45$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.20per pick46cpaid+48.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x681d…4cbfbacked Over49c102.04$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5047850.4%241 W · 237 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe8c2…a30cbacked Over50c100$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502450%12 W · 12 L+2.4wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+27.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8e92…cd3dbacked Over50c100$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502254.5%12 W · 10 L+2.4wins+0.11per pick43cpaid+12.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xbc02…958abacked Over49c100$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$495935.6%21 W · 38 L-3.4wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-33%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7118…f6adbacked Under52c94.23$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.232100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+98.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x29c1…012cbacked Over50c91.31$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.661457.1%8 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+13.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9418…4f2abacked Under51c78.43$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.4349348.3%238 W · 255 L+15.7wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1208…0160backed Over57c63$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.1532832.3%106 W · 222 L-5.8wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-25.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x12ff…f464backed Over48c62.5$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$306457.8%37 W · 27 L+3.8wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+12.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1126…4e82backed Over33c54.52$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.7960052.2%313 W · 287 L-8.1wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-16.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4d45…9054backed Under52c45.45$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.895251.9%27 W · 25 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe611…0ae4backed Under61c40.98$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.983246.9%15 W · 17 L+0.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid-6.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf3fc…1e14backed Under51c39.22$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.221241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick46cpaid+3.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d4f…3d87backed Under51c37$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.958456%47 W · 37 L+2.5wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+8.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x481d…48cfbacked Under51c30$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.71435.7%5 W · 9 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick32cpaid-1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6894…59d8backed Over49c30$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.725854.3%140 W · 118 L-6.2wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfca9…cb3dbacked Under52c28.85$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.857647.4%36 W · 40 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x735a…3ef2backed Under52c28.85$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.8512451.6%64 W · 60 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-1.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6c6d…e289backed Under55c20$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91450%7 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick52cpaid+4.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.