MLB · resolved market
Seattle Mariners vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xee3c7da1ebaeb4999b9c632840abe590939b1a8b7ddc20c04538b2f5465e83d7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $243,073
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $250,908
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $243,073 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7b35…53c5backed Over | 51c | 83,128$42,494 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42,494.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0ac…76ffbacked Over | 50c | 49,736$25,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25,000 | 68 | 47.1%32 W · 36 L | -7.0wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Under | 49c | 47,598$23,381 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24,216.86 | 784 | 45.3%355 W · 429 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Under | 50c | 40,000$19,816 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20,184.55 | 1,063 | 48.2%512 W · 551 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9af…6371backed Over | 50c | 26,132$12,970 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,970.4 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb1e…88d5backed Under | 52c | 25,831$13,387 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,444.15 | 70 | 58.6%41 W · 29 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb7…e33dbacked Under | 49c | 23,204$11,464 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,739.87 | 1,328 | 51.4%682 W · 646 L | +25.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa455…4ebabacked Over | 50c | 10,081$5,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,999.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked Under | 49c | 8,461$4,156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,304.94 | 115 | 51.3%59 W · 56 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Under | 50c | 6,937$3,478 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,459.19 | 1,151 | 49.2%566 W · 585 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…8fe8backed Under | 52c | 5,884$3,060 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,824.32 | 335 | 54%181 W · 154 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Under | 51c | 5,140$2,641 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,499.2 | 1,909 | 53.5%1,021 W · 888 L | +29.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Under | 50c | 5,000$2,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,500 | 1,402 | 48.8%684 W · 718 L | -11.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 50c | 4,405$2,196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,208.48 | 1,355 | 49.8%675 W · 680 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefc9…b337backed Under | 51c | 4,008$2,044 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,963.68 | 63 | 50.8%32 W · 31 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf800…f62dbacked Under | 52c | 3,920$2,039 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,880.2 | 63 | 57.1%36 W · 27 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Under | 51c | 3,878$1,973 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,904.95 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6d5…1ccbbacked Over | 50c | 2,237$1,108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,108.09 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x699f…d5c6backed Over | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 126 | 41.3%52 W · 74 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa82b…5220backed Under | 51c | 2,000$1,020 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$980 | 76 | 43.4%33 W · 43 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1e0…8913backed Under | 51c | 1,637$835 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$802.25 | 77 | 58.4%45 W · 32 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30ef…70dfbacked Under | 49c | 1,400$686 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$714 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 48c | 1,079$515 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$563.51 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d1…4660backed Under | 2c | 1,015$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$994.74 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | +2.2wins | +0.11per pick | 13cpaid | +254.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x81f5…70afbacked Under | 51c | 1,000$510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$490 | 169 | 45%76 W · 93 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked Under | 52c | 770$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$369.6 | 652 | 48.3%315 W · 337 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Over | 58c | 719.21$418 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$418.14 | 1,381 | 48.1%664 W · 717 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ee7…12c5backed Under | 60c | 564.46$338 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.63 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +2.9wins | +0.19per pick | 54cpaid | +41.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a7…63e7backed Over | 50c | 500$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 88 | 52.3%46 W · 42 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e9c…ab80backed Under | 52c | 500$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e9a…5b99backed Under | 63c | 423.06$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.22 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44c4…501bbacked Over | 50c | 400$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce99…637ebacked Under | 52c | 343$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.64 | 86 | 46.5%40 W · 46 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56bb…8e6bbacked Under | 58c | 300$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1498…a10bbacked Under | 52c | 292.3$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.3 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcba6…bb05backed Under | 51c | 271.99$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.97 | 210 | 44.8%94 W · 116 L | -10.4wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd957…a584backed Over | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Under | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | +25.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61cd…541ebacked Under | 52c | 150.27$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.13 | 148 | 64.2%95 W · 53 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked Over | 50c | 126.14$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.81 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7555…ce17backed Over | 49c | 122.45$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 46cpaid | +48.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x681d…4cbfbacked Over | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 478 | 50.4%241 W · 237 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c2…a30cbacked Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +2.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8e92…cd3dbacked Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +2.4wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbc02…958abacked Over | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 59 | 35.6%21 W · 38 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -33%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7118…f6adbacked Under | 52c | 94.23$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.23 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +98.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29c1…012cbacked Over | 50c | 91.31$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.66 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…4f2abacked Under | 51c | 78.43$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.43 | 493 | 48.3%238 W · 255 L | +15.7wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1208…0160backed Over | 57c | 63$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.15 | 328 | 32.3%106 W · 222 L | -5.8wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12ff…f464backed Over | 48c | 62.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 64 | 57.8%37 W · 27 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1126…4e82backed Over | 33c | 54.52$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.79 | 600 | 52.2%313 W · 287 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d45…9054backed Under | 52c | 45.45$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.89 | 52 | 51.9%27 W · 25 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe611…0ae4backed Under | 61c | 40.98$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.98 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf3fc…1e14backed Under | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d4f…3d87backed Under | 51c | 37$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.95 | 84 | 56%47 W · 37 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x481d…48cfbacked Under | 51c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6894…59d8backed Over | 49c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 258 | 54.3%140 W · 118 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfca9…cb3dbacked Under | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.85 | 76 | 47.4%36 W · 40 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x735a…3ef2backed Under | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.85 | 124 | 51.6%64 W · 60 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c6d…e289backed Under | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Seattle Mariners vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 7.5this page
- Mariners vs. Blue JaysBlue Jays won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)Seattle Mariners won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.