TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Bundesliga · resolved market

Will 1. FSV Mainz 05 win on 2026-03-22?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$438,197

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $438,197 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 294 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x37c1…c53abacked Yes44c141,215$62,677 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78,537.816465.6%42 W · 22 L+8.0wins+0.13per pick53cpaid+22.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xf19d…276fbacked No56c85,877$47,886 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47,886.033452.9%18 W · 16 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+10%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Yes41c45,463$18,698 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26,765.53,28442.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L-74.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x12ec…41aebacked No55c33,300$18,315 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,3151747.1%8 W · 9 L+1.7wins+0.10per pick37cpaid+31.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6185…2965backed No57c29,421$16,770 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,7701338.5%5 W · 8 L-2.7wins-0.21per pick59cpaid-33%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x4133…5e70backed No69c28,831$19,776 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19,775.9575142.5%319 W · 432 L-26.7wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-14.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Yes44c22,430$9,869 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,560.9834144.6%152 W · 189 L-8.1wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8a92…6941backed Yes35c18,518$6,567 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,951.065455.6%30 W · 24 L+9.6wins+0.18per pick38cpaid+50.8%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked No47c17,923$8,378 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,378.452,53839.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L-8.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-11.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb6ae…4df8backed Yes43c16,847$7,321 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,526.424456.8%25 W · 19 L+3.9wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+15.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xaf2a…0525backed No56c16,352$9,157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,157.121241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-15.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed No56c12,376$6,922 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,922.2169851.9%362 W · 336 L+22.3wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+9.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc49f…9e05backed Yes44c10,500$4,655 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,8455653.6%30 W · 26 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick51cpaid-0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbc43…96d3backed No56c10,000$5,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,600666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.18per pick48cpaid+51.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked No19c6,221$1,182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,181.7833244.6%148 W · 184 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3f5e…e7dbbacked No57c6,023$3,433 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,433.145549.1%27 W · 28 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x617b…a499backed Yes44c6,022$2,669 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,352.326058.3%35 W · 25 L+3.9wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked No65c5,276$3,436 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,435.9123842.9%102 W · 136 L+2.7wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-13.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd29…77aebacked Yes43c4,927$2,119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,808.666358.7%37 W · 26 L+5.5wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+16.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2128…da98backed No55c4,683$2,576 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,575.651241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-10.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7e83…4bd3backed No55c4,142$2,278 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,278785.7%6 W · 1 L+1.8wins+0.25per pick61cpaid+56.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Yes28c3,902$1,109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,793.261,35550.9%690 W · 665 L+12.7wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7b47…d615backed Yes44c3,109$1,367 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,742.04580%4 W · 1 L+1.8wins+0.36per pick44cpaid+71.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Yes44c2,794$1,228 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,566.3535856.4%202 W · 156 L+19.9wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+10.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Yes52c2,707$1,394 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,312.7753645.9%246 W · 290 L+6.7wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x363e…ae45backed No63c2,700$1,698 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,697.96128.3%1 W · 11 L-3.5wins-0.29per pick38cpaid-89.5%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x4a8d…31eabacked Yes43c2,679$1,152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,527.0634547.5%164 W · 181 L+0.8wins0.00per pick47cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x44c5…8d45backed Yes43c2,606$1,121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,48516045%72 W · 88 L+5.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+9.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3abf…b143backed Yes36c2,393$854 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,539.1530647.1%144 W · 162 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-11.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x5d0c…bcebbacked No55c2,197$1,208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,208.415440.7%22 W · 32 L-4.1wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-7.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Yes36c2,193$779 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,414.041,01344.5%451 W · 562 L-8.2wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked No55c2,115$1,164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,164.131,68145.2%759 W · 922 L+6.8wins0.00per pick45cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked No64c2,039$1,311 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,31148658.6%285 W · 201 L+44.5wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+33%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x40b9…b002backed No56c2,000$1,120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,119.983525.7%9 W · 26 L-4.0wins-0.12per pick37cpaid-35.5%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed No63c1,853$1,167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,167.222332.3%72 W · 151 L-7.6wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-24%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Yes41c1,744$714 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,029.6228241.5%117 W · 165 L-7.9wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-16.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x37e6…b6a5backed Yes34c1,493$503 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$990.014240.5%17 W · 25 L+5.7wins+0.14per pick27cpaid+81.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked No75c1,421$1,065 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,065.4978248.8%382 W · 400 L-28.1wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-12.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x75bd…0288backed Yes34c1,399$475 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$923.819646.9%45 W · 51 L+3.0wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+17.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe706…89bcbacked No56c1,270$710 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$710.2911843.2%51 W · 67 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked No49c1,211$592 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$592.1622245.9%102 W · 120 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-1.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x01d7…5fd2backed No75c1,073$804 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$804.451392.3%12 W · 1 L+3.2wins+0.25per pick67cpaid+43.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xe18a…fd87backed Yes45c1,010$454 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$555.4924050.4%121 W · 119 L+18.5wins+0.08per pick43cpaid+15.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1748…a816backed No55c1,000$550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5501741.2%7 W · 10 L-1.4wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-9.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x38f1…9ff1backed Yes37c1,000$370 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6304965.3%32 W · 17 L+4.1wins+0.08per pick57cpaid+17.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x8790…010bbacked Yes38c924.92$347 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$577.827757.1%44 W · 33 L+10.5wins+0.14per pick43cpaid+38.4%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x691a…d113backed Yes44c912$401 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$510.722962.1%18 W · 11 L+2.9wins+0.10per pick52cpaid+25.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc3fc…5176backed No56c812.5$455 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4552948.3%14 W · 15 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3a51…b2b6backed No56c780.94$437 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$437.333250%16 W · 16 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+9.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed No58c756.69$438 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$438.137750.6%39 W · 38 L-5.8wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-16.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x6bd1…96a7backed Yes44c750$330 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$420450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+6.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaab2…aa17backed No57c740$422 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$421.820%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1350…0841backed No55c739.25$407 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$406.591566.7%10 W · 5 L+2.9wins+0.20per pick47cpaid+36.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xefa5…b417backed No56c739$414 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$413.842352.2%12 W · 11 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-20.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf9d3…22d1backed No56c733.9$411 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$410.98540%2 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-20.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x629c…6c01backed Yes42c710$298 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$411.83554.3%19 W · 16 L+1.9wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+13.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1997…0d61backed No57c700$399 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39910%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x407b…e0fabacked Yes44c690$304 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$386.42100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.49per pick52cpaid+98.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcc00…79f8backed No57c684.21$388 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$388.232138.1%8 W · 13 L-2.2wins-0.11per pick49cpaid-26.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe2bb…ea55backed Yes44c666$293 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$372.968143.2%35 W · 46 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-10.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5487…a014backed No55c609$335 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$334.9530054%162 W · 138 L+10.2wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+2.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf641…7b6fbacked Yes74c588.55$433 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$155.422669%156 W · 70 L+13.1wins+0.06per pick63cpaid+25.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3dcf…4eb4backed No55c581.82$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3203857.9%22 W · 16 L+2.3wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+14.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2302…d6d2backed Yes45c559.89$253 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$307.0918644.1%82 W · 104 L-10.9wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-20.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x24ca…5829backed No56c554.23$309 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$308.525052%26 W · 24 L-0.2wins0.00per pick52cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x34e8…100fbacked No57c528.96$302 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301.51633.3%2 W · 4 L-2.0wins-0.33per pick66cpaid-46.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2d5c…1768backed No56c499.99$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2803129%9 W · 22 L-7.2wins-0.23per pick52cpaid-47%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0x58f4…764ebacked Yes21c476.19$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$376.194643.5%20 W · 26 L+2.1wins+0.05per pick39cpaid+16.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2f2b…0f9abacked Yes44c469$206 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$262.64875%6 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.13per pick62cpaid+28.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd733…b175backed Yes44c450$198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2521369.2%9 W · 4 L+2.6wins+0.20per pick49cpaid+60.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xeddf…a953backed Yes45c444.44$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$244.448532.9%28 W · 57 L-6.1wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-14.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x7edb…7993backed No65c431.91$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$279.9811356.6%64 W · 49 L+3.2wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-11.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x12b9…3ec2backed Yes34c431.14$147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$284.5510641.5%44 W · 62 L+6.2wins+0.06per pick36cpaid+13.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3c9b…a556backed No56c410.71$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$230250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-3.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbe02…5fb3backed Yes33c404.74$134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$271.095556.4%31 W · 24 L+3.3wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+12.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x20ad…a7c6backed Yes25c402.95$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$304.214734.7%51 W · 96 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-4.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0556…132abacked Yes45c400$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$220977.8%7 W · 2 L+2.7wins+0.30per pick48cpaid+75%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xc33d…0d40backed No55c348.71$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.483351.5%17 W · 16 L+2.5wins+0.08per pick44cpaid+0.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa6be…b977backed Yes44c340.91$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$190.918950.6%45 W · 44 L+5.3wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+11.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4f04…6a54backed Yes26c338.97$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$249.3475%3 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.33per pick42cpaid+100.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x865f…e88ebacked Yes44c335$148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$187.2134342%144 W · 199 L-0.4wins0.00per pick42cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfb51…082dbacked Yes45c332.31$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$182.1820548.3%99 W · 106 L-10.0wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-11.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xafb1…0329backed No55c302.9$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166.471250%6 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-5.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x67e6…86edbacked Yes44c301.9$133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$169.0612157.9%70 W · 51 L+8.9wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+17.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xcb14…5358backed Yes44c300$131 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$169.55068%34 W · 16 L+4.9wins+0.10per pick58cpaid+15%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x5316…1d07backed No55c300$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1653122.6%7 W · 24 L-5.8wins-0.19per pick41cpaid-38.8%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x6203…5544backed Yes44c300$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1682657.7%15 W · 11 L+1.2wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+18.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x005c…a987backed Yes44c299.97$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$167.9811354.9%62 W · 51 L+8.0wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+16.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x814c…7ffabacked No56c299.97$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.9819446.4%90 W · 104 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-14.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe60c…d2e2backed Yes43c298$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$169.861100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.57per pick43cpaid+132.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b93…e941backed No54c294.83$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.211163.6%7 W · 4 L+1.2wins+0.11per pick52cpaid+13.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc65c…ea39backed Yes44c285.69$126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$159.99757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+18.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x79fb…c230backed No19c266$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.541513.3%2 W · 13 L0.0wins0.00per pick13cpaid-25.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf1f0…c9e4backed Yes44c263$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$147.28580%4 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.14per pick66cpaid+30.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9737…09c1backed Yes44c263$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$147.281100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.56per pick44cpaid+127.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xef86…5afcbacked Yes44c263$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$147.284100%4 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.36per pick65cpaid+62%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa35f…b58fbacked Yes18c261.82$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$214.6910642.5%45 W · 61 L+6.1wins+0.06per pick37cpaid+16.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4488…579cbacked Yes44c261.5$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$145.883161.3%19 W · 12 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7b2c…af48backed No55c256.77$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.2256547.8%270 W · 295 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2de6…e187backed No11c254.57$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.16714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.14per pick28cpaid-70.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.