NHL · resolved market
Spread: Lightning (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc3f898fed01eca230fe18f7f349d3e4fb2133dbbf1a7fca977450e4ce0bfccad
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Bruinsof Lightning, Bruins
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $51,305
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $53,545
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $51,305 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc257…358ebacked Bruins | 58c | 25,842$14,988 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,853.59 | 485 | 45.4%220 W · 265 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e04…564dbacked Lightning | 43c | 11,866$5,054 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,053.74 | 1,891 | 52.4%991 W · 900 L | +36.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Lightning | 42c | 6,411$2,692 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,692.47 | 1,948 | 49.4%962 W · 986 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39d3…9ef0backed Lightning | 42c | 3,381$1,420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,420 | 186 | 41.9%78 W · 108 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x33dd…ef8abacked Lightning | 43c | 3,000$1,290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,290 | 48 | 41.7%20 W · 28 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9405…c071backed Lightning | 42c | 2,666$1,120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,119.72 | 76 | 47.4%36 W · 40 L | -4.2wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2707…0afabacked Bruins | 58c | 2,594$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,093.9 | 154 | 31.8%49 W · 105 L | -12.4wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed Bruins | 57c | 2,273$1,293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$980.12 | 619 | 53.8%333 W · 286 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Lightning | 42c | 2,237$936 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$936.44 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1624…bf63backed Lightning | 8c | 1,777$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.84 | 393 | 44.8%176 W · 217 L | +23.3wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Lightning | 42c | 1,500$630 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$630 | 919 | 45.6%419 W · 500 L | -27.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7705…a442backed Lightning | 44c | 1,282$559 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$558.63 | 572 | 38.1%218 W · 354 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc699…7961backed Lightning | 27c | 997.26$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.04 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Bruins | 57c | 882$503 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$379.47 | 793 | 50.1%397 W · 396 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e7…3c1abacked Bruins | 56c | 704.97$395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310.19 | 751 | 55.8%419 W · 332 L | +12.1wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Lightning | 3c | 700.59$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.44 | 1,846 | 57.2%1,055 W · 791 L | +85.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3fa5…4f56backed Lightning | 42c | 694.38$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.64 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Bruins | 58c | 599.98$348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.99 | 916 | 53.9%494 W · 422 L | +39.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x966d…eaa5backed Bruins | 57c | 400$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172 | 122 | 54.1%66 W · 56 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Lightning | 6c | 397.7$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.89 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8f…3782backed Lightning | 42c | 243.97$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.16 | 162 | 37%60 W · 102 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e51…e4f7backed Lightning | 42c | 206.78$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.85 | 153 | 49%75 W · 78 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x930b…d91cbacked Bruins | 30c | 203.79$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.77 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.28per pick | 22cpaid | +121.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8126…9d18backed Bruins | 58c | 200$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Bruins | 55c | 195.17$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.72 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Lightning | 35c | 164.79$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.22 | 2,112 | 42.9%907 W · 1,205 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Lightning | 43c | 139.53$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 786 | 51.8%407 W · 379 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3920…23e7backed Bruins | 57c | 118.42$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.92 | 396 | 49.5%196 W · 200 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a3…ad9ebacked Lightning | 44c | 113.64$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 177 | 55.9%99 W · 78 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Lightning | 42c | 112.95$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.44 | 1,679 | 54.4%914 W · 765 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ec…e987backed Bruins | 59c | 100$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 243 | 47.7%116 W · 127 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…534cbacked Lightning | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 541 | 32.7%177 W · 364 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5215…3164backed Bruins | 58c | 100$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 141 | 42.6%60 W · 81 L | -6.9wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Lightning | 42c | 97.5$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.95 | 1,530 | 51.7%791 W · 739 L | +22.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc23…8283backed Bruins | 57c | 87.7$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.71 | 252 | 58.3%147 W · 105 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0501…61ecbacked Lightning | 42c | 69.05$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 145 | 42.8%62 W · 83 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Lightning | 42c | 58.25$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.47 | 939 | 53.6%503 W · 436 L | +29.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30ad…6a69backed Lightning | 44c | 56.82$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 231 | 58%134 W · 97 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ed4…620ebacked Bruins | 57c | 45.46$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 91 | 49.5%45 W · 46 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6277…eda7backed Bruins | 63c | 39.68$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.68 | 49 | 61.2%30 W · 19 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xceee…9051backed Bruins | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5217…6c5fbacked Bruins | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.19per pick | 47cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc6…b20dbacked Bruins | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 598 | 52.3%313 W · 285 L | +34.1wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0c69…2b8dbacked Bruins | 57c | 33.64$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 385 | 51.4%198 W · 187 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3494…04f4backed Bruins | 56c | 26.31$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.58 | 94 | 58.5%55 W · 39 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Lightning (-1.5)this page
- Bruins vs. LightningLightning won
- Bruins vs. Lightning: O/U 5.5Over won
- Bruins vs. Lightning: O/U 6.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.