NHL · resolved market
Bruins vs. Lightning: O/U 5.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9ad51866362183f3563338f8721f9effad16ce66d90aa34975ed77f1ac715851
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $99,673
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $100,212
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $99,673 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 54c | 61,774$33,342 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28,432.39 | 1,948 | 49.4%962 W · 986 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9b…414dbacked Under | 46c | 50,000$23,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23,000 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa07…2125backed Under | 46c | 28,579$13,168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,168.33 | 1,070 | 49.9%534 W · 536 L | +22.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Over | 55c | 13,448$7,406 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,042.05 | 588 | 41.8%246 W · 342 L | -20.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33dd…ef8abacked Under | 47c | 3,999$1,879 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,879.46 | 48 | 41.7%20 W · 28 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Over | 54c | 3,244$1,752 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,492.24 | 868 | 52.4%455 W · 413 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2707…0afabacked Under | 48c | 3,142$1,508 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,508 | 154 | 31.8%49 W · 105 L | -12.4wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x12d9…01bbbacked Over | 54c | 2,141$1,156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$984.78 | 185 | 47%87 W · 98 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef23…5b60backed Over | 54c | 1,856$1,002 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$853.62 | 642 | 42.2%271 W · 371 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 53c | 1,825$959 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$866.16 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Over | 52c | 1,500$780 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$719.95 | 919 | 45.6%419 W · 500 L | -27.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88ae…9c62backed Under | 48c | 1,466$697 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$697 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7e…a65fbacked Under | 47c | 1,319$615 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$614.52 | 603 | 37.5%226 W · 377 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e1…5ad0backed Over | 53c | 1,315$697 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$618.05 | 331 | 51.7%171 W · 160 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9405…c071backed Over | 53c | 1,170$620 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$549.89 | 76 | 47.4%36 W · 40 L | -4.2wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe584…e6e2backed Under | 48c | 1,042$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57b9…d142backed Over | 53c | 1,000$530 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$470 | 97 | 52.6%51 W · 46 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Under | 46c | 650$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299 | 849 | 53.8%457 W · 392 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Under | 46c | 600.11$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.05 | 916 | 53.9%494 W · 422 L | +39.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9030…4a23backed Under | 47c | 595.74$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 31 | 74.2%23 W · 8 L | +5.9wins | +0.19per pick | 55cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Under | 17c | 539.61$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.13 | 2,314 | 46.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec56…dd09backed Over | 52c | 500$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240 | 270 | 49.6%134 W · 136 L | -7.1wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2fd5…ef85backed Under | 47c | 500$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235 | 136 | 47.1%64 W · 72 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 54c | 495.84$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.09 | 1,846 | 57.2%1,055 W · 791 L | +85.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x20d6…3856backed Over | 52c | 454.72$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.27 | 268 | 49.6%133 W · 135 L | +5.9wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 53c | 411.08$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.88 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x064e…4347backed Over | 54c | 370.37$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.37 | 93 | 46.2%43 W · 50 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6183…575fbacked Under | 47c | 316.25$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ce8…2f9ebacked Over | 58c | 291.36$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.72 | 67 | 58.2%39 W · 28 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c82…b56bbacked Over | 54c | 221.69$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.98 | 140 | 65.7%92 W · 48 L | +13.9wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Under | 43c | 216.93$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.28 | 831 | 49.5%411 W · 420 L | -9.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42b5…b5b6backed Over | 53c | 208.88$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.3 | 1,377 | 49.1%676 W · 701 L | +39.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f3f…5878backed Over | 52c | 200$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 104 | 38.5%40 W · 64 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Over | 53c | 190$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.3 | 624 | 47.3%295 W · 329 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28b6…4eddbacked Over | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.82 | 69 | 36.2%25 W · 44 L | -7.3wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…54d2backed Over | 54c | 180$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.8 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -22%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed Under | 42c | 165.47$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.5 | 326 | 50%163 W · 163 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe624…2928backed Over | 53c | 149.98$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.89 | 226 | 55.3%125 W · 101 L | +17.7wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0e51…e4f7backed Over | 53c | 141.24$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.38 | 153 | 49%75 W · 78 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed Over | 54c | 122$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.12 | 619 | 53.8%333 W · 286 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5960…d692backed Under | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 457 | 56.2%257 W · 200 L | +19.5wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc23…8283backed Over | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.59 | 252 | 58.3%147 W · 105 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9443…7c5dbacked Under | 48c | 87.63$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ef…cdd9backed Under | 48c | 83.33$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 156 | 49.4%77 W · 79 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0fd…e1f5backed Under | 48c | 70$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.6 | 50 | 52%26 W · 24 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 44c | 62.38$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.45 | 2,112 | 42.9%907 W · 1,205 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5611…e5f4backed Over | 54c | 57.3$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.36 | 95 | 47.4%45 W · 50 L | -5.2wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb53…c50bbacked Over | 54c | 55.56$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.56 | 152 | 36.2%55 W · 97 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8674…2ababacked Over | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.2 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +42.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44c9…2bd8backed Over | 76c | 49.69$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.1 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.12per pick | 60cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30ad…6a69backed Over | 54c | 46.3$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.3 | 231 | 58%134 W · 97 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd8e3…dce5backed Over | 54c | 42.59$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.59 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d1…5557backed Over | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 101 | 67.3%68 W · 33 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 64cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc81f…656ebacked Over | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1304…138cbacked Under | 48c | 33.33$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x785f…e3d9backed Over | 52c | 33.25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.96 | 262 | 43.5%114 W · 148 L | -9.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b58…c920backed Over | 53c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d19…e2fdbacked Over | 53c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10c5…5ec9backed Over | 53c | 27.16$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.77 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -3.8wins | -0.18per pick | 52cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc4…581bbacked Under | 48c | 26.33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.64 | 151 | 60.9%92 W · 59 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Over | 56c | 25.85$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.48 | 740 | 54.5%403 W · 337 L | +22.6wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Under | 45c | 24.2$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.89 | 451 | 51.2%231 W · 220 L | +16.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc8d…c28dbacked Over | 54c | 20.56$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.46 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5f1…790bbacked Over | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 41 | 68.3%28 W · 13 L | +4.9wins | +0.12per pick | 56cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x61e4…fb60backed Over | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 112 | 58%65 W · 47 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Bruins vs. Lightning: O/U 5.5this page
- Bruins vs. LightningLightning won
- Bruins vs. Lightning: O/U 6.5Over won
- Spread: Lightning (-1.5)Bruins won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.