NHL · resolved market
Bruins vs. Lightning: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x286a4453b2c06550a0b00156858b2dd911804a31352ad157480e799f4db146bc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $56,977
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $57,814
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $56,977 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5ec1…057cbacked Under | 59c | 35,000$20,650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20,649.98 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20d6…3856backed Over | 41c | 22,292$9,140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,152.25 | 268 | 49.6%133 W · 135 L | +5.9wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Under | 59c | 10,204$6,016 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,015.74 | 1,948 | 49.4%962 W · 986 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Over | 41c | 5,854$2,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,453.66 | 530 | 50.6%268 W · 262 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7298…fe8dbacked Over | 41c | 5,140$2,107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,032.59 | 332 | 43.7%145 W · 187 L | -16.1wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb66…2f53backed Over | 42c | 4,762$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,761.9 | 88 | 48.9%43 W · 45 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Under | 58c | 4,313$2,502 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,501.62 | 1,441 | 49.2%709 W · 732 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf38b…b601backed Over | 41c | 3,415$1,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,014.63 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | -6.3wins | -0.19per pick | 46cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x42b5…b5b6backed Over | 41c | 2,582$1,052 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,529.93 | 1,377 | 49.1%676 W · 701 L | +39.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x778d…cbe2backed Over | 41c | 1,499$615 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$884.41 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +2.7wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Under | 60c | 1,354$808 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$808.1 | 868 | 52.4%455 W · 413 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bf6…5200backed Under | 59c | 1,220$720 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$719.51 | 58 | 56.9%33 W · 25 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Under | 59c | 864.12$506 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$505.97 | 916 | 53.9%494 W · 422 L | +39.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Over | 41c | 536.59$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$316.59 | 1,093 | 51.8%566 W · 527 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 51c | 476.46$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.58 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 41c | 469.54$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.03 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f0f…a571backed Over | 43c | 466.14$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.14 | 187 | 44.9%84 W · 103 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa07…2125backed Under | 57c | 373.16$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.7 | 1,070 | 49.9%534 W · 536 L | +22.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6036…d2ccbacked Over | 41c | 368$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.12 | 470 | 51.5%242 W · 228 L | +12.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Over | 41c | 361$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.99 | 1,679 | 54.4%914 W · 765 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xace9…f74abacked Under | 59c | 339.49$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 122 | 52.5%64 W · 58 L | -10.7wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -13%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 56c | 268.4$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.6 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Under | 43c | 259.66$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.1 | 1,107 | 52%576 W · 531 L | +63.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1f3f…5878backed Over | 41c | 250$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.5 | 104 | 38.5%40 W · 64 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a64…6769backed Over | 42c | 238.1$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.1 | 108 | 64.8%70 W · 38 L | +12.6wins | +0.12per pick | 53cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3100…9bc9backed Over | 41c | 222.9$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.51 | 118 | 55.9%66 W · 52 L | +7.4wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3008…50d9backed Under | 45c | 200$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e51…e4f7backed Over | 41c | 197.31$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.41 | 153 | 49%75 W · 78 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe77b…f10abacked Over | 42c | 179.36$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.03 | 69 | 60.9%42 W · 27 L | +6.3wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x27d2…b0f8backed Over | 41c | 153.66$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.66 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6e4…22ccbacked Over | 41c | 150$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.5 | 480 | 46.9%225 W · 255 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 44c | 117.88$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.19 | 1,384 | 47.1%652 W · 732 L | +25.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 58c | 103.44$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.99 | 786 | 51.8%407 W · 379 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf01e…aed4backed Over | 41c | 100$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59 | 62 | 59.7%37 W · 25 L | +5.3wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd77d…b01cbacked Over | 42c | 95.24$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.24 | 152 | 57.2%87 W · 65 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b7b…1d73backed Under | 56c | 94.39$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.86 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -34%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8f…386cbacked Under | 53c | 90.63$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 29c | 85.87$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.02 | 2,112 | 42.9%907 W · 1,205 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38f1…449cbacked Under | 59c | 85.22$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.28 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 56cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6474…7ab8backed Over | 47c | 84.66$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.66 | 44 | 36.4%16 W · 28 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5101…4a4fbacked Over | 41c | 73.17$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.17 | 189 | 49.2%93 W · 96 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd63…a39abacked Over | 42c | 71.43$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.43 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c08…af98backed Under | 59c | 67.8$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 337 | 56.4%190 W · 147 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe624…2928backed Over | 43c | 64.97$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.78 | 226 | 55.3%125 W · 101 L | +17.7wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6cd6…16abbacked Under | 57c | 60$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.2 | 308 | 59.4%183 W · 125 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17bf…5a53backed Under | 26c | 56.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.59 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | -6.9wins | -0.24per pick | 41cpaid | -65.6%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x216b…fe46backed Over | 58c | 53.33$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.16 | 111 | 53.2%59 W · 52 L | +5.7wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5abb…061bbacked Over | 43c | 52$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.51 | 181 | 48.6%88 W · 93 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1466…3bfbbacked Over | 43c | 46.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 92 | 45.7%42 W · 50 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea78…a74ebacked Under | 60c | 46.38$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 253 | 37.9%96 W · 157 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c76…477abacked Under | 58c | 44.08$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.57 | 724 | 48.3%350 W · 374 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70b1…73b2backed Over | 57c | 43.76$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.82 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 42c | 41.62$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.14 | 451 | 51.2%231 W · 220 L | +16.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Under | 38c | 40.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x849f…0665backed Over | 41c | 40.73$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.03 | 196 | 51.5%101 W · 95 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdefa…e9e3backed Over | 42c | 40$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.3 | 74 | 51.4%38 W · 36 L | +8.5wins | +0.11per pick | 40cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9021…bf4ebacked Over | 41c | 38.52$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.73 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2800…c9d2backed Over | 41c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.7 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.14per pick | 55cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7dc4…c278backed Over | 41c | 29.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.7 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ab4…50acbacked Over | 42c | 29.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.39 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +2.4wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +17%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Over | 39c | 29.87$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.22 | 831 | 49.5%411 W · 420 L | -9.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe026…0404backed Under | 59c | 28.92$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.06 | 100 | 56%56 W · 44 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05f9…f351backed Over | 42c | 28$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.24 | 135 | 57.8%78 W · 57 L | +10.0wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x10c5…5ec9backed Under | 59c | 24.9$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.69 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -3.8wins | -0.18per pick | 52cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf0aa…13b3backed Under | 57c | 24.21$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4934…cca1backed Under | 59c | 23.5$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 91 | 58.2%53 W · 38 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5f1…790bbacked Under | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 41 | 68.3%28 W · 13 L | +4.9wins | +0.12per pick | 56cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe178…e480backed Under | 59c | 17.24$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.17 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x44c9…2bd8backed Over | 68c | 14.83$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.69 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.12per pick | 60cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Bruins vs. Lightning: O/U 6.5this page
- Bruins vs. LightningLightning won
- Bruins vs. Lightning: O/U 5.5Over won
- Spread: Lightning (-1.5)Bruins won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.