TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NHL · resolved market

Bruins vs. Lightning

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Lightningof Bruins, Lightning
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,958,762
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,991,305

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,958,762 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 1,230 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NHL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa5ea…d96abacked Bruins34c500,684$170,233 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170,232.710840.7%44 W · 64 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd0b4…fed6backed Lightning67c500,000$334,866 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$165,133.5215953.5%85 W · 74 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick54cpaid+1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x03e8…1697backed Lightning66c406,147$267,414 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138,733.467051%342 W · 328 L+9.3wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9976…67dabacked Bruins34c264,925$89,074 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89,074.1619848.5%96 W · 102 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdc87…7ab6backed Lightning65c263,023$170,965 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92,058.0656152%292 W · 269 L+7.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc257…358ebacked Bruins35c143,000$50,050 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50,05048545.4%220 W · 265 L-7.8wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-6.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Bruins35c111,296$39,353 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39,352.661,94849.4%962 W · 986 L+24.9wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a72…33eebacked Bruins66c101,328$66,829 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66,828.641,34554.8%737 W · 608 L+21.0wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9b37…3b3ebacked Lightning66c80,000$52,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27,200666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.14per pick53cpaid+38.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7744…999ebacked Lightning33c70,317$23,452 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46,865.26475%3 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.24per pick51cpaid+60.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xee17…b46ebacked Lightning66c70,000$46,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23,8001968.4%13 W · 6 L+2.6wins+0.13per pick55cpaid+25.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x4259…936fbacked Bruins69c64,318$44,389 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44,389.452330.4%7 W · 16 L-2.4wins-0.11per pick41cpaid-30.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9267…0f9abacked Bruins66c40,097$26,464 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26,463.8910451.9%54 W · 50 L+0.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xba81…dc35backed Bruins68c38,798$26,335 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26,334.845364.2%34 W · 19 L+6.4wins+0.12per pick52cpaid+34.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x20d6…3856backed Lightning65c35,894$23,193 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,701.4726849.6%133 W · 135 L+5.9wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+8.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe90b…5da2backed Bruins45c32,787$14,918 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,917.6938748.3%187 W · 200 L+1.6wins0.00per pick48cpaid-6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf1f4…544cbacked Lightning66c30,000$19,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,200757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+8.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xea2b…1fc6backed Lightning66c30,000$19,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,199.972445.8%11 W · 13 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe0f4…76febacked Lightning66c22,120$14,599 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,520.81100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc660…bd28backed Bruins34c20,741$7,052 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,051.8148549.7%241 W · 244 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd4da…3175backed Bruins33c20,037$6,632 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,631.5828251.8%146 W · 136 L+8.9wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe6a3…2f0dbacked Bruins33c19,698$6,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,500.342231.8%7 W · 15 L-3.9wins-0.18per pick49cpaid-38.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x7e3a…3246backed Lightning29c19,246$5,580 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,665.994148.8%20 W · 21 L+2.2wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+7.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4337…8882backed Lightning65c18,888$12,277 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,610.821850.9%111 W · 107 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc49f…9e05backed Lightning66c17,542$11,578 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,964.2826058.8%153 W · 107 L+17.7wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+15%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x49dd…2a32backed Lightning37c17,399$6,461 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,9386163.9%39 W · 22 L+8.1wins+0.13per pick51cpaid+20.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xbd09…a188backed Bruins35c16,000$5,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,60061748.5%299 W · 318 L+0.4wins0.00per pick48cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x97e1…017bbacked Lightning66c15,555$10,266 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,288.713363.2%84 W · 49 L+9.5wins+0.07per pick56cpaid+16.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4b9f…e125backed Bruins66c15,000$9,930 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,9302540%10 W · 15 L-2.6wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-26.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x29ae…4d2cbacked Lightning12c13,892$1,717 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,175.767354.8%40 W · 33 L+7.0wins+0.10per pick45cpaid+12.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x617b…a499backed Lightning66c12,545$8,230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,315.4522747.6%108 W · 119 L-7.0wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9d2a…9ee3backed Bruins35c12,000$4,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,2004045%18 W · 22 L-2.2wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-12.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x498c…42bfbacked Bruins66c10,000$6,620 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,6204057.5%23 W · 17 L+2.0wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+9.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1fe3…e0fdbacked Bruins34c10,000$3,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,40019051.1%97 W · 93 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Lightning65c10,000$6,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,499.991,44149.2%709 W · 732 L+6.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1624…bf63backed Bruins43c9,247$4,008 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,007.6239344.8%176 W · 217 L+23.3wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+1.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xaa07…2125backed Lightning54c9,178$4,989 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,189.121,07049.9%534 W · 536 L+22.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbb66…2f53backed Lightning66c9,091$6,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,090.918848.9%43 W · 45 L-4.4wins-0.05per pick54cpaid-10.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xebbb…4214backed Bruins47c8,572$4,008 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,008.2712835.9%46 W · 82 L-7.9wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-26%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf699…07e1backed Lightning58c8,343$4,850 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,492.7985464.2%548 W · 306 L+64.5wins+0.08per pick57cpaid+18.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Bruins34c8,181$2,753 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,753.1961950.1%310 W · 309 L-7.6wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5e6e…be00backed Lightning65c8,000$5,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,8002763%17 W · 10 L+3.3wins+0.12per pick51cpaid+25.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Lightning28c7,759$2,179 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,579.792,66451.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L+58.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcb2f…936abacked Lightning29c7,576$2,180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,395.598664%55 W · 31 L+7.9wins+0.09per pick55cpaid+30.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9c4d…168cbacked Bruins34c6,500$2,210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,2101,08745.1%490 W · 597 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Lightning66c6,268$4,160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,108.2579350.1%397 W · 396 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-3.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3e04…564dbacked Lightning65c6,026$3,917 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,109.371,89152.4%991 W · 900 L+36.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x00d4…0a6abacked Lightning65c5,536$3,599 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,937.712050%10 W · 10 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-6.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1867…92cabacked Lightning66c5,000$3,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,70012245.9%56 W · 66 L-6.2wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-13.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x01b4…372ebacked Bruins2c5,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002174.1%9 W · 208 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick3cpaid+36.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xed2c…9597backed Lightning34c4,849$1,644 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,205.6733345.6%152 W · 181 L+0.7wins0.00per pick45cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x94a5…9838backed Bruins35c4,760$1,666 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,6663948.7%19 W · 20 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-11.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4fbe…b84fbacked Lightning47c4,696$2,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,496.3818258.2%106 W · 76 L+4.8wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+6.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8753…85adbacked Lightning65c4,580$2,977 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,602.9961959.1%366 W · 253 L+17.9wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x699f…d5c6backed Bruins35c4,562$1,585 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,585.2718345.9%84 W · 99 L-10.1wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-9.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa676…a4c5backed Lightning33c4,433$1,463 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,970.3813437.3%50 W · 84 L-0.5wins0.00per pick38cpaid-2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed Bruins48c4,363$2,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,10085250.2%428 W · 424 L-26.2wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-6.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xce99…637ebacked Bruins34c4,294$1,460 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,46026946.1%124 W · 145 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Bruins57c4,140$2,378 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,378.0599638.2%380 W · 616 L-10.3wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-12.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7760…21f0backed Bruins34c4,000$1,360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,36021036.2%76 W · 134 L-14.6wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-16.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Lightning67c4,000$2,680 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,319.9989547%421 W · 474 L-18.0wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Lightning66c3,873$2,556 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,316.821,43450.8%728 W · 706 L-10.7wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf5e1…5ad0backed Bruins34c3,333$1,133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,133.2233151.7%171 W · 160 L+9.0wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+7.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Bruins33c3,180$1,054 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,053.872,89451.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L+58.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd269…8055backed Bruins35c3,143$1,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,10028152%146 W · 135 L+2.7wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xff80…9b4dbacked Lightning22c3,074$679 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,395.187258.3%42 W · 30 L+9.1wins+0.13per pick46cpaid+31.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xc58d…9373backed Lightning54c3,044$1,644 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,400.4610745.8%49 W · 58 L+3.0wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x977a…f2cabacked Bruins0c3,000$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121,1632.3%27 W · 1,136 L-10.7wins-0.01per pick3cpaid-87.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x733d…1ae7backed Lightning65c3,000$1,950 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,05021048.1%101 W · 109 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x46f4…5bc0backed Bruins34c2,945$1,001 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,001.37138%27 W · 44 L-2.6wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-10.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa558…1b44backed Bruins35c2,857$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0004240.5%17 W · 25 L-2.8wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-14.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Lightning68c2,753$1,873 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$879.8982043%353 W · 467 L-1.9wins0.00per pick43cpaid-8.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd3fa…a26cbacked Bruins23c2,711$623 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$623.4415145%68 W · 83 L-7.3wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-9.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc1fd…948ebacked Bruins6c2,693$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.291729.4%5 W · 12 L-1.0wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-24.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf7c4…5919backed Lightning7c2,593$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,413.0254418%98 W · 446 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick17cpaid-6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb17e…22bebacked Bruins53c2,503$1,318 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,317.639562.1%59 W · 36 L+9.1wins+0.10per pick53cpaid+22%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x10d4…d953backed Bruins42c2,500$1,050 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,05044551.2%228 W · 217 L+16.4wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+9.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xeb75…6dd0backed Bruins65c2,490$1,621 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,620.8333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.24per pick57cpaid-32%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x685d…22d6backed Lightning78c2,450$1,904 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$545.7512552%65 W · 60 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x467c…8c89backed Bruins66c2,394$1,574 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,573.621758.8%10 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.06per pick65cpaid-3.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4ce8…63febacked Lightning33c2,365$790 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,575.014634.8%16 W · 30 L-2.8wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-15.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbc31…4a51backed Bruins71c2,345$1,670 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,6705453.7%29 W · 25 L-2.3wins-0.04per pick58cpaid-2.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0fae…3488backed Lightning36c2,344$834 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,510.829550.5%48 W · 47 L+5.8wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+7.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9870…b9d3backed Lightning66c2,273$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$772.7331550.8%160 W · 155 L-11.6wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-7.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Lightning66c2,081$1,370 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$710.6791653.9%494 W · 422 L+39.6wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+8.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe0db…f44ebacked Lightning28c2,063$578 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,485.239752.1%207 W · 190 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Lightning68c2,019$1,373 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$646.4193953.6%503 W · 436 L+29.6wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xca3f…8078backed Bruins33c2,003$661 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$661.0962249.4%307 W · 315 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d3a…7b63backed Bruins34c2,000$680 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68086649.9%432 W · 434 L+1.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x64e9…eb4cbacked Lightning66c2,000$1,320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68010848.1%52 W · 56 L-5.4wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-7.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x098b…1fa5backed Bruins33c2,000$660 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6602147.6%10 W · 11 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x445e…9be0backed Lightning66c2,000$1,310 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69033652.1%175 W · 161 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-0.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc699…7961backed Lightning34c1,971$663 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,307.75560%3 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.17per pick43cpaid+23.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf641…7b6fbacked Bruins47c1,904$891 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$890.5352172.6%378 W · 143 L+36.7wins+0.07per pick66cpaid+9.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xead0…f3babacked Bruins33c1,884$622 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$621.6432946.8%154 W · 175 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf958…5a02backed Bruins71c1,838$1,308 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,307.881450%7 W · 7 L+1.3wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+15%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x96bc…7fb4backed Bruins34c1,800$612 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61224845.2%112 W · 136 L+9.5wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+9.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd6f4…0566backed Bruins58c1,774$1,027 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,026.6295049.1%466 W · 484 L+12.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-10.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2707…0afabacked Bruins35c1,723$610 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61015431.8%49 W · 105 L-12.4wins-0.08per pick40cpaid-24.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc922…2618backed Lightning66c1,600$1,056 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5447750.6%39 W · 38 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.