Tennis · resolved market
HSBC Championships: Bautista Agut vs. Mensik
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc40a150d47ef0320e088bed17c44f530cda555e3f06a0cb6ffcd9d7dc7b9787c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Bautista Agutof Bautista Agut, Mensik
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $59,077
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $69,786
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $59,077 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfba6…375cbacked Mensik | 66c | 10,013$6,607 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,606.57 | 96 | 52.1%50 W · 46 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf520…0637backed Bautista Agut | 35c | 8,030$2,818 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,212.13 | 280 | 43.2%121 W · 159 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed Bautista Agut | 50c | 5,621$2,794 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,826.63 | 1,090 | 35.9%391 W · 699 L | +16.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf557…18debacked Bautista Agut | 51c | 5,292$2,698 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,593.47 | 63 | 76.2%48 W · 15 L | +11.0wins | +0.17per pick | 59cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Bautista Agut | 34c | 5,098$1,717 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,380.83 | 391 | 44.2%173 W · 218 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…d8acbacked Bautista Agut | 60c | 4,050$2,425 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,624.19 | 100 | 46%46 W · 54 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Mensik | 66c | 2,804$1,838 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,837.7 | 1,039 | 54.6%567 W · 472 L | +37.6wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x60cc…f0dfbacked Bautista Agut | 53c | 1,897$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$896.83 | 145 | 49%71 W · 74 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2360…1c1cbacked Mensik | 59c | 1,704$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 88 | 31.8%28 W · 60 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f65…d7aebacked Bautista Agut | 39c | 1,500$582 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$918 | 65 | 35.4%23 W · 42 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95b8…47c9backed Bautista Agut | 35c | 1,429$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$928.57 | 284 | 43%122 W · 162 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47b1…1306backed Mensik | 70c | 1,429$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 43 | 41.9%18 W · 25 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0fae…3488backed Mensik | 75c | 1,335$999 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$999.08 | 63 | 38.1%24 W · 39 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f9f…59f3backed Mensik | 69c | 1,041$715 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$715.35 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Mensik | 66c | 1,012$668 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$667.91 | 551 | 43.4%239 W · 312 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Mensik | 56c | 1,000$565 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$565 | 731 | 47.9%350 W · 381 L | -16.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc398…f446backed Bautista Agut | 47c | 910.87$426 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$485.1 | 960 | 35.4%340 W · 620 L | -40.5wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37bb…06e8backed Bautista Agut | 44c | 865$377 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$488.05 | 55 | 45.5%25 W · 30 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a06…1e43backed Mensik | 27c | 862.8$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c9…bb9ebacked Mensik | 50c | 600$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6726…542fbacked Bautista Agut | 48c | 520.83$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.83 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96df…4caabacked Mensik | 67c | 500$335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$335 | 260 | 39.2%102 W · 158 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27a9…8781backed Mensik | 64c | 468.75$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 154 | 39.6%61 W · 93 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99a6…aac8backed Bautista Agut | 43c | 460.36$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.36 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Mensik | 51c | 448.68$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.01 | 629 | 52.1%328 W · 301 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c72…fa84backed Mensik | 64c | 389$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.96 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc076…3303backed Mensik | 69c | 372.46$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10f4…3b7ebacked Mensik | 38c | 316.86$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 130 | 44.6%58 W · 72 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdadc…6295backed Mensik | 69c | 312.71$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.77 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +55.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2f1…bd6abacked Bautista Agut | 33c | 304.21$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.82 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +2.3wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x224b…f6b8backed Bautista Agut | 35c | 300$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Bautista Agut | 35c | 287.54$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.54 | 639 | 42.4%271 W · 368 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Bautista Agut | 35c | 285.71$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.71 | 480 | 43.3%208 W · 272 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b4…f05dbacked Bautista Agut | 34c | 267.21$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.36 | 91 | 37.4%34 W · 57 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b5a…7618backed Mensik | 54c | 194.5$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.69 | 253 | 30%76 W · 177 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46a6…8c21backed Bautista Agut | 30c | 181.24$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.87 | 72 | 38.9%28 W · 44 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa33f…fedbbacked Bautista Agut | 70c | 167.9$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.01 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e70…19e8backed Mensik | 60c | 165.92$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf031…89b5backed Bautista Agut | 23c | 104.34$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.7 | 30 | 16.7%5 W · 25 L | -3.7wins | -0.12per pick | 29cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf8d6…0062backed Mensik | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 61 | 39.3%24 W · 37 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6332…6128backed Bautista Agut | 33c | 96.13$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.41 | 108 | 39.8%43 W · 65 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5327…3b80backed Bautista Agut | 23c | 86.96$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.96 | 120 | 38.3%46 W · 74 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae30…d0a3backed Mensik | 15c | 82$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 79 | 43%34 W · 45 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7665…f332backed Mensik | 55c | 81.95$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.07 | 68 | 44.1%30 W · 38 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd9…f0d5backed Mensik | 66c | 61$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.11 | 177 | 67.2%119 W · 58 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Bautista Agut | 31c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.5 | 459 | 9.6%44 W · 415 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x25bf…7a56backed Mensik | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,335 | 46.6%1,088 W · 1,247 L | +55.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeec4…e6a5backed Bautista Agut | 35c | 37.06$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.26 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e17…e4d4backed Mensik | 69c | 34.75$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.98 | 159 | 61%97 W · 62 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86d9…f7edbacked Mensik | 70c | 21.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.10per pick | 62cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.