NHL · resolved market
Spread: Oilers (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc40b98a82f787172f359dd70beae61a84bdbd8a789809cdd1fafc5da1dbd42bd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Sabresof Oilers, Sabres
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,778
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,765
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,778 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Sabres | 54c | 6,739$3,639 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,099.96 | 881 | 51.2%451 W · 430 L | +10.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07c8…2696backed Oilers | 46c | 6,520$2,999 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,999 | 78 | 44.9%35 W · 43 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Oilers | 45c | 5,911$2,655 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,655.42 | 1,948 | 49.4%962 W · 986 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Sabres | 55c | 4,000$2,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,799.97 | 510 | 45.5%232 W · 278 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Sabres | 55c | 3,036$1,673 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,363.19 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…6933backed Oilers | 45c | 2,557$1,151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,150.52 | 388 | 44.6%173 W · 215 L | -17.1wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x698b…4426backed Sabres | 56c | 1,561$874 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$686.92 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4103…9b9ebacked Oilers | 45c | 500$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 288 | 42%121 W · 167 L | -12.4wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3920…23e7backed Sabres | 56c | 446.43$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.43 | 396 | 49.5%196 W · 200 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd45…59b2backed Oilers | 46c | 217.28$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.95 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -3.5wins | -0.27per pick | 50cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed Sabres | 57c | 184.21$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.21 | 811 | 57.2%464 W · 347 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb590…15d3backed Sabres | 56c | 179.98$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.19 | 481 | 61.3%295 W · 186 L | +21.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a45…1405backed Oilers | 45c | 155.56$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 80 | 47.5%38 W · 42 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x860d…3c72backed Oilers | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 310 | 47.4%147 W · 163 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x602d…3534backed Oilers | 45c | 77.78$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 432 | 56.5%244 W · 188 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Sabres | 56c | 72$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.68 | 629 | 44%277 W · 352 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa89e…4ab4backed Sabres | 55c | 55$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.75 | 44 | 61.4%27 W · 17 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfe…ed69backed Oilers | 43c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 418 | 47.8%200 W · 218 L | +11.3wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Sabres | 55c | 48.55$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.93 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…c311backed Oilers | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 696 | 53.4%372 W · 324 L | -16.8wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd59a…ac62backed Oilers | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | -3.7wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -18%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Sabres | 57c | 36.84$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.84 | 690 | 61.6%425 W · 265 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Oilers | 43c | 36.84$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 1,679 | 54.4%914 W · 765 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd32d…3c32backed Oilers | 45c | 33.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 116 | 55.2%64 W · 52 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3bc5…7ac4backed Oilers | 44c | 27.27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 94 | 52.1%49 W · 45 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Sabres | 54c | 20.83$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.62 | 490 | 45.3%222 W · 268 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Oilers (-1.5)this page
- Sabres vs. OilersSabres won
- Sabres vs. Oilers: O/U 6.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.