MLB · resolved market
Colorado Rockies vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 10.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc40d8a641d033430a8afeef663e3a6cff5e27d9dde08fc9cc7ef5e67e642203b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $39,763
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,425
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,763 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 43c | 21,608$9,354 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,353.77 | 11,653 | 52.8%6,157 W · 5,496 L | +214.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 57c | 8,369$4,777 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,591.86 | 11,102 | 51.5%5,715 W · 5,387 L | +135.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 56c | 6,852$3,837 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,014.78 | 6,132 | 55.4%3,395 W · 2,737 L | +346.5wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6383…6e28backed Under | 57c | 3,279$1,869 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,410 | 803 | 55.7%447 W · 356 L | +22.0wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over | 12c | 2,785$337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$337.13 | 3,139 | 48.2%1,514 W · 1,625 L | -10.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 57c | 2,136$1,218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$918.65 | 4,534 | 49%2,220 W · 2,314 L | -41.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Over | 34c | 1,971$663 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$662.65 | 2,175 | 51.5%1,121 W · 1,054 L | +54.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb88a…f6adbacked Under | 57c | 1,000$570 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$430 | 300 | 53.7%161 W · 139 L | +11.9wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 36c | 918.37$332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$331.88 | 8,682 | 52.6%4,563 W · 4,119 L | +505.1wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 44c | 905$398 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$398.2 | 7,078 | 50.5%3,576 W · 3,502 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Over | 44c | 892.2$393 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$392.57 | 1,697 | 49.1%834 W · 863 L | +3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5633…59bcbacked Under | 57c | 800$456 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$344 | 292 | 52.4%153 W · 139 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked Over | 12c | 782.7$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.38 | 1,258 | 44%553 W · 705 L | -33.4wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1262…056fbacked Over | 44c | 682.57$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302 | 384 | 49%188 W · 196 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Under | 56c | 518.75$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.48 | 1,745 | 49.1%857 W · 888 L | +8.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d23…251cbacked Under | 57c | 512.75$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.48 | 128 | 52.3%67 W · 61 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fca…3487backed Under | 57c | 433.44$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.38 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +2.6wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe54d…fdecbacked Under | 67c | 399.99$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.1 | 43 | 62.8%27 W · 16 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Over | 9c | 399$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.91 | 1,906 | 49.3%940 W · 966 L | +25.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Under | 57c | 350.87$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.87 | 2,597 | 61.5%1,596 W · 1,001 L | +72.8wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec95…a2dcbacked Under | 55c | 300$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135 | 57 | 54.4%31 W · 26 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Under | 52c | 290.76$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.61 | 4,427 | 47.5%2,101 W · 2,326 L | -77.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe66f…0f3ebacked Under | 56c | 274.06$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.59 | 56 | 58.9%33 W · 23 L | +4.7wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Over | 44c | 251$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.44 | 1,478 | 51%754 W · 724 L | -19.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Under | 61c | 247.26$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.3 | 1,877 | 50.2%943 W · 934 L | -6.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Over | 40c | 219$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.76 | 581 | 39.4%229 W · 352 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17d9…84afbacked Under | 56c | 202.99$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.32 | 113 | 46.9%53 W · 60 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7091…96f8backed Under | 56c | 200$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88 | 164 | 48.2%79 W · 85 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x796f…00f6backed Over | 12c | 200$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 312 | 47.8%149 W · 163 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 46c | 199.65$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.86 | 9,891 | 46.4%4,594 W · 5,297 L | +40.7wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 42c | 153.61$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.52 | 491 | 46.4%228 W · 263 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Over | 25c | 153$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.91 | 944 | 56.5%533 W · 411 L | +32.2wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7f…d002backed Under | 57c | 131.77$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.66 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 60c | 126.43$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.57 | 1,979 | 53.2%1,052 W · 927 L | +45.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 48c | 122.2$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.83 | 5,182 | 54.6%2,829 W · 2,353 L | +227.9wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24ce…da46backed Under | 57c | 89.01$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.47 | 572 | 52.1%298 W · 274 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 55c | 80.21$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.09 | 5,567 | 50.5%2,812 W · 2,755 L | +25.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2396…9485backed Over | 36c | 76.43$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.69 | 360 | 52.2%188 W · 172 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8599…ad67backed Under | 57c | 72.89$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.34 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60d0…2e36backed Over | 47c | 45.91$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.66 | 277 | 48.7%135 W · 142 L | -12.8wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe481…d138backed Under | 57c | 44$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.08 | 918 | 48.5%445 W · 473 L | +10.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff19…3ebebacked Under | 56c | 42.34$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.63 | 419 | 48.4%203 W · 216 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf2…ac54backed Under | 56c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.6 | 115 | 51.3%59 W · 56 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf766…9251backed Under | 78c | 38$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.36 | 1,501 | 63.4%951 W · 550 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Under | 56c | 37.09$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.32 | 3,036 | 48%1,458 W · 1,578 L | +16.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37b0…799fbacked Over | 40c | 35.01$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +3.2wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x19b7…9ee6backed Under | 57c | 33.65$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.47 | 1,049 | 51.9%544 W · 505 L | +2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88c5…4815backed Over | 37c | 31.25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.61 | 378 | 56.9%215 W · 163 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Over | 43c | 24.56$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 940 | 69.3%651 W · 289 L | +93.5wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +14%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked Over | 44c | 24.13$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.53 | 747 | 52.5%392 W · 355 L | +17.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 52c | 20.01$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 8,304 | 46.2%3,840 W · 4,464 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Colorado Rockies vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 10.5this page
- Colorado Rockies vs. Washington NationalsWashington Nationals won
- Colorado Rockies vs. Washington Nationals: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5Under won
- Colorado Rockies vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 11.5Under won
- Colorado Rockies vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 8.5Under won
- Colorado Rockies vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Colorado Rockies (-1.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Colorado Rockies (-2.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-2.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-3.5)Washington Nationals won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Colorado Rockies vs. Washington NationalsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.