MLB · resolved market
Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3295cd9b7083821108648e3d09061713841218de5bcd348aa85f1c46f8eff654
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Washington Nationalsof Washington Nationals, Colorado Rockies
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $67,407
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $66,875
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $67,407 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked Colorado Rockies | 61c | 30,000$18,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18,300 | 1,449 | 49.5%717 W · 732 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56ac…d77ebacked Washington Nationals | 39c | 15,750$6,142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,607.43 | 753 | 50.6%381 W · 372 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae5c…5df7backed Washington Nationals | 58c | 13,359$7,740 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,618.1 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -2.7wins | -0.24per pick | 61cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Washington Nationals | 39c | 5,186$2,039 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,146.38 | 11,653 | 52.8%6,157 W · 5,496 L | +214.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Washington Nationals | 46c | 5,065$2,351 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,713.87 | 11,102 | 51.5%5,715 W · 5,387 L | +135.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Washington Nationals | 53c | 2,008$1,066 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$941.67 | 8,304 | 46.2%3,840 W · 4,464 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Colorado Rockies | 60c | 1,213$728 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$727.69 | 503 | 51.9%261 W · 242 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Colorado Rockies | 41c | 1,028$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$419.51 | 3,139 | 48.2%1,514 W · 1,625 L | -10.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Colorado Rockies | 2c | 1,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,975 | 41.3%815 W · 1,160 L | -27.6wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Colorado Rockies | 60c | 875.2$525 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$525.12 | 1,697 | 49.1%834 W · 863 L | +3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2396…9485backed Washington Nationals | 40c | 781.11$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$468.67 | 360 | 52.2%188 W · 172 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4483…c565backed Washington Nationals | 40c | 750$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450 | 263 | 52.1%137 W · 126 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd5a…2351backed Washington Nationals | 57c | 735$419 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$316.05 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Washington Nationals | 78c | 607.37$476 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.16 | 2,175 | 51.5%1,121 W · 1,054 L | +54.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Washington Nationals | 49c | 476$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.76 | 4,427 | 47.5%2,101 W · 2,326 L | -77.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8e4…3b32backed Colorado Rockies | 43c | 472.48$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.94 | 364 | 51.4%187 W · 177 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1262…056fbacked Washington Nationals | 39c | 384$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.24 | 384 | 49%188 W · 196 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Washington Nationals | 39c | 305.69$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.52 | 7,078 | 50.5%3,576 W · 3,502 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Washington Nationals | 59c | 280$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.59 | 8,682 | 52.6%4,563 W · 4,119 L | +505.1wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fb…ee11backed Washington Nationals | 39c | 276.54$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.69 | 664 | 49.2%327 W · 337 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3f…4333backed Washington Nationals | 40c | 256.4$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.84 | 581 | 53%308 W · 273 L | +12.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Washington Nationals | 56c | 254.66$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.93 | 1,979 | 53.2%1,052 W · 927 L | +45.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7351…5c37backed Washington Nationals | 40c | 250$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked Colorado Rockies | 39c | 222.93$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.18 | 1,258 | 44%553 W · 705 L | -33.4wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2bb8…7017backed Washington Nationals | 39c | 215.41$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.4 | 163 | 45.4%74 W · 89 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked Washington Nationals | 53c | 183.68$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.33 | 492 | 46.1%227 W · 265 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Washington Nationals | 39c | 175$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.75 | 2,372 | 49.7%1,179 W · 1,193 L | +40.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Colorado Rockies | 41c | 160.1$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.79 | 1,877 | 50.2%943 W · 934 L | -6.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa69d…228ebacked Washington Nationals | 40c | 142.58$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.55 | 196 | 35.7%70 W · 126 L | -7.7wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbbdf…b8a0backed Colorado Rockies | 58c | 130$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 125 | 58.4%73 W · 52 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3453…8524backed Washington Nationals | 40c | 122.85$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.71 | 394 | 51.5%203 W · 191 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb428…74c8backed Washington Nationals | 39c | 116.35$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.35 | 471 | 45.9%216 W · 255 L | +12.7wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x125a…df71backed Colorado Rockies | 23c | 110$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.96 | 342 | 33.9%116 W · 226 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x796f…00f6backed Washington Nationals | 80c | 109.68$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.03 | 312 | 47.8%149 W · 163 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Colorado Rockies | 46c | 73.1$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.82 | 5,861 | 43.7%2,562 W · 3,299 L | -190.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x840b…345fbacked Colorado Rockies | 24c | 70.83$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.3wins | -0.23per pick | 43cpaid | -60.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x25c1…7e8ebacked Washington Nationals | 74c | 67.4$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.46 | 210 | 55.2%116 W · 94 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Colorado Rockies | 63c | 51.35$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.35 | 1,906 | 49.3%940 W · 966 L | +25.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Colorado Rockies | 46c | 48$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.99 | 944 | 56.5%533 W · 411 L | +32.2wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33c4…85c2backed Washington Nationals | 40c | 46.08$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.65 | 66 | 59.1%39 W · 27 L | +5.7wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Washington Nationals | 72c | 45$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.43 | 940 | 69.3%651 W · 289 L | +93.5wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +14%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked Washington Nationals | 39c | 42.4$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.85 | 747 | 52.5%392 W · 355 L | +17.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3003…30f5backed Colorado Rockies | 62c | 40.32$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 98 | 61.2%60 W · 38 L | +12.4wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf2…ac54backed Colorado Rockies | 52c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 115 | 51.3%59 W · 56 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Washington Nationals | 62c | 37.03$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.2 | 1,939 | 44.5%862 W · 1,077 L | -29.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Washington Nationals | 55c | 31.98$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.28 | 5,182 | 54.6%2,829 W · 2,353 L | +227.9wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Colorado Rockies | 61c | 29.68$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.95 | 872 | 54.2%473 W · 399 L | +26.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34de…8e6bbacked Colorado Rockies | 71c | 16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.36 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5)this page
- Colorado Rockies vs. Washington NationalsWashington Nationals won
- Colorado Rockies vs. Washington Nationals: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5Under won
- Colorado Rockies vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 10.5Under won
- Colorado Rockies vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 11.5Under won
- Colorado Rockies vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 8.5Under won
- Colorado Rockies vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Colorado Rockies (-1.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Colorado Rockies (-2.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-2.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-3.5)Washington Nationals won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Colorado Rockies vs. Washington NationalsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.