AI · resolved market
Databricks vs Salesforce - higher valuation on June 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc41fb561999d8284f9867dc96070d7c9c189ea1d55eef3fc08de434f38998d84
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Databricksof Databricks, Salesforce
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,669
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,869
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,669 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x31ab…86cfbacked Databricks | 60c | 444.4$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.73 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81e7…7389backed Databricks | 50c | 329.32$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.27 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +60.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0262…d7b6backed Salesforce | 44c | 291.9$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.63 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Salesforce | 38c | 157.45$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.17 | 893 | 17.1%153 W · 740 L | -144.9wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Salesforce | 39c | 138.89$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.77 | 415 | 7.2%30 W · 385 L | -26.1wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -69%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2688…cb00backed Salesforce | 55c | 124.02$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.51 | 75 | 36%27 W · 48 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Salesforce | 42c | 100.1$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.04 | 125 | 33.6%42 W · 83 L | -12.2wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed Salesforce | 40c | 55$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 185 | 44.3%82 W · 103 L | -7.5wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9998…e858backed Databricks | 61c | 50.92$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.76 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +3.5wins | +0.16per pick | 39cpaid | +70.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Databricks | 49c | 50.1$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.55 | 479 | 38%182 W · 297 L | -11.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc10b…96d5backed Salesforce | 47c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -2.9wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc248…d31abacked Databricks | 69c | 46.8$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.74 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +46%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb208…e0b2backed Databricks | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34cb…7588backed Salesforce | 47c | 37.73$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.73 | 60 | 30%18 W · 42 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed Salesforce | 34c | 31.66$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 220 | 19.5%43 W · 177 L | -11.7wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Databricks | 49c | 26.53$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.53 | 729 | 35.5%259 W · 470 L | -57.8wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2712…eb71backed Salesforce | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 37 | 27%10 W · 27 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32eb…f531backed Databricks | 76c | 15.19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.65 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.