MLB · resolved market
Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc4259bb4998c407de659c45b81cc84c7b1ff2474ec498e707a62bcb44007bc2c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $47,291
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $47,543
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $47,291 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 36c | 24,103$8,678 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,677.73 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04e6…3914backed Under | 64c | 20,410$13,063 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,347.75 | 97 | 66%64 W · 33 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 45c | 4,022$1,829 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,192.98 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Under | 60c | 3,946$2,368 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,577.76 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 35c | 3,936$1,376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,375.68 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Over | 29c | 638.34$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.16 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Over | 37c | 561.46$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.74 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked Under | 53c | 502.36$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.89 | 1,056 | 44.3%468 W · 588 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x189c…c9aebacked Under | 63c | 500$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185 | 52 | 55.8%29 W · 23 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x549b…28c2backed Under | 42c | 500$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +19%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d9a…dbe1backed Under | 54c | 442.5$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.55 | 100 | 56%56 W · 44 L | +12.8wins | +0.13per pick | 43cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 25c | 400$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under | 68c | 203$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.73 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 30c | 162.96$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.89 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47c9…2038backed Over | 38c | 158.05$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.06 | 474 | 46.6%221 W · 253 L | +26.0wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 56c | 150.88$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 1,865 | 52%970 W · 895 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b0f…b7aebacked Over | 34c | 142.75$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.89 | 526 | 38.4%202 W · 324 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Over | 27c | 133.78$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.12 | 780 | 52.2%407 W · 373 L | +22.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaf…d959backed Over | 59c | 125.17$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.85 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -5.2wins | -0.25per pick | 49cpaid | -50%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed Over | 27c | 115.11$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.08 | 625 | 54.2%339 W · 286 L | +23.8wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x71f5…4ccebacked Over | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 88 | 50%44 W · 44 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 39c | 80.85$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.53 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43ed…6232backed Over | 36c | 80$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 182 | 44.5%81 W · 101 L | -14.3wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 41c | 71.36$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.33 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07b4…6855backed Under | 63c | 62.54$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.06 | 141 | 49.6%70 W · 71 L | -7.5wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Under | 48c | 60.31$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.35 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +25%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 27c | 55.9$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.24 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Over | 56c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 873 | 52.7%460 W · 413 L | +9.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8526…72aabacked Under | 69c | 49.86$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.46 | 380 | 53.2%202 W · 178 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Under | 41c | 41.11$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.25 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca2…1798backed Under | 61c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 99 | 60.6%60 W · 39 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Under | 41c | 37.09$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.88 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Under | 50c | 35$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.49 | 799 | 55.9%447 W · 352 L | +21.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5cf…7b4cbacked Under | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 83 | 51.8%43 W · 40 L | -8.9wins | -0.11per pick | 63cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed Under | 78c | 21.27$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.76 | 470 | 56.6%266 W · 204 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88c5…4815backed Under | 67c | 18.97$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.29 | 319 | 57.4%183 W · 136 L | +23.1wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 8.5this page
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay RaysBaltimore Orioles won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay Rays: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Under won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 5.5Over won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 6.5Over won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-2.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-2.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay RaysNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.