MLB · resolved market
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xafb7ebdd7b3f53e64e3edc462e83094d043227bd93a9062c467af94d6fb20b4a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Baltimore Oriolesof Tampa Bay Rays, Baltimore Orioles
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,157
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,359
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,157 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 36c | 8,596$3,102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,102.41 | 11,356 | 52.9%6,002 W · 5,354 L | +209.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Baltimore Orioles | 64c | 6,773$4,320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,453.38 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Baltimore Orioles | 58c | 590$342 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.8 | 1,796 | 43.8%786 W · 1,010 L | -33.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96d9…18a0backed Tampa Bay Rays | 39c | 500$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195 | 224 | 48.7%109 W · 115 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f2…1848backed Tampa Bay Rays | 41c | 362$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.32 | 794 | 42.4%337 W · 457 L | -13.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Baltimore Orioles | 61c | 317.68$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.83 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Baltimore Orioles | 61c | 258.99$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.01 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4e2…0f82backed Tampa Bay Rays | 39c | 256.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 137 | 43.8%60 W · 77 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7705…a442backed Tampa Bay Rays | 39c | 248.41$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.88 | 201 | 38.8%78 W · 123 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Baltimore Orioles | 61c | 227.95$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.9 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb0b…62cdbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 38c | 152.39$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.91 | 795 | 43%342 W · 453 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Baltimore Orioles | 62c | 147.39$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.01 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d9a…dbe1backed Tampa Bay Rays | 37c | 139.12$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 100 | 56%56 W · 44 L | +12.8wins | +0.13per pick | 43cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Tampa Bay Rays | 37c | 134.69$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.83 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa69d…228ebacked Tampa Bay Rays | 39c | 112.71$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.96 | 193 | 35.8%69 W · 124 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Baltimore Orioles | 61c | 112.71$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.96 | 1,555 | 48.9%761 W · 794 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked Baltimore Orioles | 77c | 75.45$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.54 | 1,056 | 44.3%468 W · 588 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05b2…953bbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 45c | 75$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.75 | 109 | 41.3%45 W · 64 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Tampa Bay Rays | 26c | 74$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.24 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43ed…6232backed Tampa Bay Rays | 37c | 69.17$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.93 | 182 | 44.5%81 W · 101 L | -14.3wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked Tampa Bay Rays | 33c | 55.82$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.42 | 473 | 45.7%216 W · 257 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Baltimore Orioles | 62c | 52.63$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0609…e235backed Tampa Bay Rays | 38c | 52.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x71f5…4ccebacked Tampa Bay Rays | 28c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 88 | 50%44 W · 44 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9930…696ebacked Baltimore Orioles | 61c | 39.44$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.38 | 305 | 48.9%149 W · 156 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2889…edcfbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 39c | 38.46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 63 | 57.1%36 W · 27 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x257b…c08bbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 39c | 33.33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 191 | 47.6%91 W · 100 L | -9.4wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -11%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Tampa Bay Rays | 37c | 32.14$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.89 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a6c…f3eabacked Baltimore Orioles | 63c | 30.56$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.31 | 41 | 63.4%26 W · 15 L | +3.2wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Baltimore Orioles | 61c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Baltimore Orioles | 63c | 29.2$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.85 | 2,144 | 39.6%849 W · 1,295 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed Baltimore Orioles | 63c | 22.73$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.41 | 470 | 56.6%266 W · 204 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Baltimore Orioles | 72c | 21.87$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.15 | 873 | 70.1%612 W · 261 L | +91.6wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x87f7…8f45backed Tampa Bay Rays | 50c | 21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 464 | 44.4%206 W · 258 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…5df1backed Baltimore Orioles | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfeef…4b1fbacked Baltimore Orioles | 63c | 17.9$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.62 | 150 | 52.7%79 W · 71 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)this page
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay RaysBaltimore Orioles won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay Rays: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Under won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 5.5Over won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 6.5Over won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 7.5Under won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-2.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-2.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay RaysNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.