MLB · resolved market
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay Rays
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6f7d66b9f577cefd61dc26f0375939af9172bc73c3f7ed5a157036520a05dd08
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,563
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,327
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,563 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5e6e…be00backed Yes | 43c | 7,330$3,152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,152.06 | 73 | 53.4%39 W · 34 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed No | 57c | 4,000$2,280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,720 | 1,292 | 50.2%648 W · 644 L | +18.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa90…c709backed No | 57c | 2,450$1,397 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,053.5 | 62 | 56.5%35 W · 27 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ad4…6866backed Yes | 44c | 2,339$1,029 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,029.16 | 158 | 49.4%78 W · 80 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 56c | 1,500$835 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$665 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f15…bdb3backed No | 56c | 1,365$763 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$601.9 | 776 | 47.4%368 W · 408 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Yes | 44c | 1,249$549 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$549.4 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36e6…ad16backed No | 56c | 1,243$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$542.68 | 75 | 64%48 W · 27 L | +5.5wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2728…4f96backed Yes | 45c | 888.89$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 534 | 48.9%261 W · 273 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc5be…7019backed No | 56c | 588.79$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.07 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x842a…7422backed No | 55c | 499.99$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225 | 595 | 49.7%296 W · 299 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…8ed9backed Yes | 43c | 453.54$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.02 | 326 | 52.5%171 W · 155 L | +15.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Yes | 45c | 452$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.4 | 1,291 | 51%658 W · 633 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Yes | 47c | 399$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.84 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ebb…2b75backed No | 55c | 368.89$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166 | 81 | 48.1%39 W · 42 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b3…145dbacked No | 57c | 307.02$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.02 | 220 | 55.5%122 W · 98 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x992d…75b7backed No | 57c | 244.32$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.32 | 80 | 58.8%47 W · 33 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked No | 57c | 230$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.9 | 1,521 | 48.6%739 W · 782 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd52c…6c59backed No | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.44 | 293 | 31.7%93 W · 200 L | -11.7wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Yes | 44c | 115.92$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.46 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed No | 53c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 1,804 | 53.8%970 W · 834 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa96b…7d92backed No | 57c | 47.37$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.37 | 190 | 41.1%78 W · 112 L | -10.2wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda8a…2dbabacked No | 56c | 46.98$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.67 | 49 | 59.2%29 W · 20 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7f…bb6dbacked No | 55c | 44$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 147 | 51.7%76 W · 71 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfa0…a77bbacked No | 57c | 43.86$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.86 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked No | 58c | 43.43$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.43 | 652 | 48.3%315 W · 337 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Yes | 44c | 38.36$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.88 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde36…f41cbacked No | 57c | 35.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.34 | 158 | 41.8%66 W · 92 L | -12.7wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked Yes | 42c | 34.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.72 | 583 | 52.1%304 W · 279 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed No | 57c | 34.28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.74 | 252 | 48.8%123 W · 129 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 44c | 29$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.62 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd8ad…1f21backed No | 57c | 24.86$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.69 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a98…639dbacked Yes | 46c | 23.91$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 309 | 60.2%186 W · 123 L | +16.8wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed No | 54c | 23.91$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 1,053 | 47.3%498 W · 555 L | -14.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x263c…6540backed No | 56c | 22.87$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.06 | 148 | 48.6%72 W · 76 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73b8…aa92backed No | 58c | 20.69$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.69 | 356 | 52.5%187 W · 169 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2910…d76cbacked No | 57c | 20.34$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.74 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +2.8wins | +0.26per pick | 56cpaid | +44.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay Raysthis page
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay RaysBaltimore Orioles won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay Rays: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Under won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 5.5Over won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 6.5Over won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 7.5Under won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-2.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-2.5)Baltimore Orioles won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.